How can Penn State football prevent the upset against Ball State? Here are Saturday’s 2 key matchups
Penn State football is playing its home opener this weekend against the unranked Ball State Cardinals as 22.5 points favorites.
Here are the two key matchups that will dictate if Ball State has any chance to knock off the Nittany Lions.
Jon Sauber: Ball State WR Justin Hall vs. Penn State’s cornerbacks
This was quickly deemed a trap game for Penn State this season, but given how much that caught on, it seems favor has swung too far in Ball State’s direction. The Cardinals are a good team and will have a legitimate chance to win the Mid-American Conference this season. But at this point, after seeing Penn State take down Wisconsin on the road and the Cardinals struggle with putting away Western Illinois, it’s hard to envision the upset happening.
That being said, if the Cardinals are going to do it, it’s going to be because Penn State couldn’t keep wide receiver Justin Hall in check.
Hall was electric in Week 1 for Ball State, catching eight passes for 137 yards and two touchdowns, along with carrying the ball four times for 12 yards in the team’s 31-21 win over Western Illinois. He’s small at 5-foot-9, 186 pounds, but that didn’t relegate him to the slot in the team’s opener. Hall played 12 snaps in the slot compared to 19 outside after playing 58.6% of the team’s snaps in the slot in 2020, according to Pro Football Focus.
The senior receiver excelled in either situation last week and will have to again when he goes up against Penn State. He doesn’t have elite speed but uses his speed well and does an excellent job of getting in and out of his breaks. He’s especially effective with the ball in his hands and it’s a safe bet that Ball State will be doing its best to get it to him on Saturday.
Three players in particular will likely be tasked with managing Hall for the Nittany Lions Saturday — cornerbacks Tariq Castro-Fields, Joey Porter Jr. and Daequan Hardy.
Castro-Fields and Porter should both see him when he’s on the outside, with Hardy seeing him when he’s in the slot.
The two outside corners will have to ensure he isn’t able to get easy receptions or get the ball in space. That means being aware of any screens the Cardinals try to run and getting physical with him at the line of scrimmage so he can’t easily get to his spots.
Hardy will have a much taller task thanks to Hall’s quickness. He’s able to play more effectively in the slot because he uses his quickness to fake out cornerbacks and create enough space to catch passes and go. Hardy will have to hang with Hall and try to mitigate the damage he causes. For as good as Penn State’s defense is, it’s a near certainty that Ball State will find a way to get their star wide receiver the ball. The ability to limit what he’s able to do once he has the ball— rather than trying to eliminate any chance he gets it — will be beneficial for the Nittany Lions.
Kyle J. Andrews: Sean Clifford’s arm vs. Ball State’s defense
There’s almost no reason why Penn State shouldn’t be able to stretch the field with the arm of Sean Clifford. Ball State allowed 367 passing yards by Western Illinois quarterback Connor Sampson. But Clifford is simply built differently. So are the wide receivers of Penn State’s offense.
Clifford has a chance to show why playing in Mike Yurcich’s offense can put other teams on notice in the Big Ten. He could put up 400 yards by delivering the ball to an assortment of Jahan Dotson, Parker Washington, KeAndre Lambert-Smith, Theo Johnson and Brenton Strange, all while getting the running backs involved in the passing game.
Last week against Wisconsin, Clifford hit Dotson in stride on a 49-yard pass for a touchdown — ending his day with five catches for 102 receiving yards and one touchdown. Lambert-Smith hauled in a pass for a 52-yard gain, finishing with four receptions and 71 yards. Washington had a 24-yard reception as well, averaging 11.8 yards per catch (47 yards) on four catches. While Strange and Johnson didn’t get involved, that’s something that can change this Saturday.
Opponents in 2020 scored 25.8 per game (44th of 128 in the country) against Ball State. Penn State averaged 29.8 per game (54th of 128) last season. This Nittany Lions offense is more seasoned and is coming off of a game where they were playing to just not make mistakes. Ball State isn’t the same type of defense that Wisconsin is, nor are the Nittany Lions entering Camp Randall Stadium with opposing fans yelling in their ears.
There’s no reason to call Ball State a pushover, however. The Cardinals have 18 returning starters and 16 fifth-year or higher seniors back from their Mid-American Conference championship-winning team from last year.
Ball State is coming off of eight consecutive victories dating back to last season. Over those eight wins, the Cardinals have only allowed 23.63 points per game. It’s not like they will stand back and let Penn State beat them without fighting valiantly. Just don’t be surprised if they do get beat with the athletes that the Nittany Lions have, especially playing in Beaver Stadium, juiced up and in front of 107,000 fans.
This story was originally published September 8, 2021 at 4:31 PM.
