Here are the 3 questions that will decide Penn State football’s top-5 matchup with the Iowa Hawkeyes
Penn State football will take on arguably its toughest task yet this weekend when it travels to Iowa City to take on the Iowa Hawkeyes in Kinnick Stadium. Both teams are undefeated overall — at 5-0 — and in the conference — at 2-0 — and have faced multiple difficult opponents this season.
The No. 3 Hawkeyes have defeated Iowa State, Maryland and Indiana as their three toughest opponents thus far, with the 51-14 victory over Maryland coming last week. The performance was the team’s most complete of the season and came on a Friday night, giving Iowa an extra day off before taking on the Nittany Lions.
Penn State will put its own No. 4 ranking on the line after earning victories over the aforementioned Hoosiers, as well as Auburn and Wisconsin early in the season. The winner of the game should have increased chances at making the College Football Playoff.
Let’s take a look at the three questions that will decide the outcome of this week’s game between the Nittany Lions and the Hawkeyes.
Will Penn State hit on enough big plays?
If there’s a game for Penn State to use as a point of comparison for this one, it’s the season opener against Wisconsin. The Hawkeyes’ defense ranks No. 4 in the country in ESPN’s SP+, a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency, and boasts one of the best units in the country. The No. 3 team? The Badgers.
The Nittany Lions have already played a defense on this level and were able to do enough to earn a victory in the game by scoring just enough on offense and relying on its defense to hold off Wisconsin. Those scores were mostly on the back of big plays in the passing game and that will likely be the formula again this week. Iowa is a difficult team to put together slow, methodical drives against because of its stout run defense and tackling in space.
Chances are redshirt senior quarterback Sean Clifford will need to find senior wide receiver Jahan Dotson downfield for Penn State to get out in front against the Hawkeyes. Clifford’s ability to hit on those big throws could be the one factor that has the most impact in the game because it could force Iowa’s offense to throw the ball — when it wants to run — and put the Hawkeye defense on its heels.
Can the Iowa offense move the ball?
Iowa may have scored 51 points against Maryland, but that performance was an outlier from the rest of the season on offense and, to some extent, wasn’t as good as the scoring output would indicate. The Hawkeyes’ defense turned Maryland over seven times in the game and continually got the offense the ball in favorable positions. To the offense’s credit, it finished off those drives, even if they only required moving the ball less than 50 yards to do so.
Still, the offense ranks No. 72 in the country in SP+, a far cry from Penn State, which ranks No. 23. The Hawkeyes don’t have the offensive firepower to make big plays like Penn State can, and they don’t have any game-breaking talents at running back. Instead, they rely on an overpowering and physical offensive line to create rushing lanes and help the offense move slowly downfield.
The Penn State defense isn’t easy to do that against, however, and will present Iowa with its toughest challenge yet. Iowa will need to move the ball if it wants to earn the home victory Saturday night at Kinnick Stadium.
Which quarterback will play better?
The first two questions lead us here — to potentially the only question that matters this weekend. Spencer Petras was good against Maryland, Colorado State and Kent State but struggled mightily against Indiana and Iowa State. Petras can not be the quarterback that showed up for the latter two games when he completed only 24 of his 48 pass attempts overall and threw for fewer than 300 total yards in the two games. He has struggled with accuracy against better opponents and will be facing a team that will force even the best quarterbacks into difficult situations.
On the other side of the field will be Clifford, who has been better in 2021 than he was in 2020, but still struggles from time to time with his own accuracy issues. The third-year starter has thrown for 1,336 yards with a 67.3% completion percentage this year, but that isn’t indicative of the full picture. Clifford has excellent receivers who can haul in slightly off-target passes and turn them into big gains. He was good against Auburn just over two weeks ago, but struggled again with accuracy when the team took on the Hoosiers in its most recent game.
It’s possible neither quarterback is at the top of their game Saturday in Iowa City, but if one of the two steps up, it may spell doom for the opponent.
This story was originally published October 7, 2021 at 6:00 AM.
