How can Penn State football upset Ohio State on the road? Here are Saturday’s 2 key matchups
Penn State football is on a two-game losing streak and will have a difficult matchup as it tries to stop the skid. The Nittany Lions will take on the Ohio State Buckeyes at Ohio Stadium at 7:30 p.m. Saturday in Columbus. Penn State enters the game 5-2 overall and 2-2 in the Big Ten after losing to Iowa and Illinois in its last two games. Ohio State is 6-1 overall and 4-0 in the Big Ten.
Let’s take a look at the two key matchups that will determine if the Nittany Lions can upset the Buckeyes.
Jon Sauber: Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson vs. Penn State’s run defense
Penn State is coming off its worst performance against the run this season and it won’t have much time to get things fixed. The Nittany Lions gave up 357 yards on the ground to Illinois last week and did so on 67 carries. They essentially knew the Illini were going to run the ball, especially with how poorly Illinois was passing it, and still didn’t have an answer.
Now, the Buckeyes are unlikely to employ the same strategy the Illinois offense did to find success, in part because they don’t have to. The Illini frequently ran out of a formation with seven offensive linemen and two tight ends on the field with the quarterback and running back. Penn State never adjusted and it allowed Chase Brown and Josh McCray to run roughshod on the defense.
Ohio State is unlikely to take its rushing attack to that extreme, but it may not have to. TreVeyon Henderson is already arguably the best running back in the country and has put his talent on display frequently this season. He’s been a key cog for the Buckeyes, carrying the ball only 79 times but gaining 693 yards and scoring 11 touchdowns on those carries.
Penn State’s run defense has generally been better than it showed last week but this will be the most talented back it has faced all season. Auburn running backs Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter are the only two that are near Henderson’s level and both excelled against the Nittany Lions, combining for 165 yards on 32 carries. Henderson has the type of vision and speed that make him a game breaking threat every single time he touches the ball.
That will add extra stress to the back seven of Penn State’s defense. The linebackers and secondary will need to be on their toes and ensure the freshman running back doesn’t break off big gains. If he finds his way into the second or third level, it will be imperative for them to get him to the ground or else he’s as good as gone once he gets a full head of steam.
The other glaring issue for the Penn State run defense is the absence of senior defensive tackle PJ Mustipher who is out for the season with an injury. The Illinois game was the first the team played without him and it showed. He’s the best interior defensive lineman on the roster and his absence will make it even more difficult for the Nittany Lions to stop Henderson Saturday.
Kyle J. Andrews: Penn State’s secondary vs. Ohio State’s receiving corps
Penn State’s defense will have its hands full with the receiving trio of Garrett Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Chris Olave. Wilson has 36 catches for 605 receiving yards and six touchdowns, Olave has 32 catches, 518 yards and a team-high eight touchdowns, and Smith-Njigba has 29 catches for 551 yards and three touchdowns.
Ohio State has only one game where it hasn’t thrown over 200 yards — a 41-20 victory over Tulsa. In its best performance, quarterback C.J. Stroud completed 35-of-54 passes for 484 yards for three touchdowns and one interception. Olave has 12 receptions for 126 yards, Smith-Njigba went for seven catches, 145 yards and two touchdowns and Wilson had eight receptions for 117 yards and a touchdown.
The Nittany Lions allowed just 38 passing yards against Illinois last Saturday. As a whole, they’ve only allowed 178 passing yards per game and passers complete just 55.6% of their attempts. Their defensive secondary features safeties Jaquan Brisker, Jonathan Sutherland and Ja’Ayir Brown, along with corners Tariq Castro-Fields and Joey Porter Jr.
Brisker has two interceptions and four pass deflections on the year, Sutherland has one pass deflection, Brown has three interceptions and four pass deflections, Castro-Fields has five pass deflections and Porter Jr. has an interception and four pass deflections.
According to PSU Analytics, Penn State’s defense allows just 26.9 yards per possession, 11.6 points per 10 possessions and has a defensive effectiveness rating of 13. Ohio State’s offense has a yards per possession of 56.7 yards, an average of 50 points per 10 possessions and an offensive effectiveness rating of 26.3.
