Penn State at Purdue predictions: Can the Nittany Lions open the season with a road win?
It’s almost kickoff time for Penn State. Here are some final thoughts and predictions ahead of the Nittany Lions’ football game at Purdue this Thursday night.
Finding an identity
This game might not carry much weight in the race for the Big Ten title but it’s going to be indicative of how Penn State plays this season. The Nittany Lions are 11-11 over the last two seasons and had very different starts to 2020 and 2021 — with the former beginning with a loss and the latter ending with a win. However, they have one primary commonality with this season in that they’ll begin with a road conference matchup.
Both of those two games, in 2020 against Indiana and 2021 against Wisconsin, proved to be instructive in determining how the team would perform the rest of the season. The game against the Hoosiers turned into an 0-5 start that began with the critical season-opening loss, while the game against the Badgers showed the clear strength, the defense, and weakness, the offense, of the team.
The game against Purdue should say much of the same — revealing what will be true about the 2022 iteration of Penn State football. The expectation here is that the defense will be dominant with the upside to be a top five group in the country, and that the offense will have to find its way and locate an identity.
Penn State head coach James Franklin has projected confidence in how the team will perform.
“I think it’s been a pretty consistent message I think all pre-season is that I just think we’re back in more of a similar role than we’ve been in terms of depth,” he said. “We got much more depth than we had in the previous two years for a number of reasons.”
The team’s depth should be helpful, but the team’s starters will need to perform, and Thursday presents the first opportunity for them to establish a real identity.
Young skill talent on display
Penn State pulled in a high end 2022 recruiting class, along with a 2021 class that could have important contributors, and this will be an excellent opportunity for the group of young players to show their talent. Wide receiver Harrison Wallace III is one of the 2021 signees that seems to have taken a step forward this offseason.
That should give him a shot to crack the starting receiving rotation at some point this year, something Franklin mentioned about Wallace.
“He’s one of those guys that I think has earned the coaches’ as well as his teammates’ trust, a guy that we expect to play and play a lot,” he said. “He’s right on that fringe in terms of viewing him as a starter. ... He’s got a lot of ability. He’s a really good kid. I think he’s got a chance to be one of those guys where maybe not a whole lot of people are talking about him right now, but I think he’s got a chance to be one of those guys that by the middle of the season or end of the season, not only the fans and media are talking about him, but our opponents are saying, ‘Hey, this is a guy we better be aware of.’”
Wallace has the athleticism and catching ability to become a No. 1 wide receiver long term and make an impact on his way to that peak.
He’s not the only skill position player poised to make an impact, with both true freshmen running back also ready to make their mark. Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton have the skill set to break open a game with their rushing ability and should see touches early and often. While neither is likely to start at running back — that distinction will presumably go to Keyvone Lee — there’s a good chance one of them leads the team in carries and rushing yards against the Boilermakers.
Offensive line litmus test
Penn State’s success on offense could swing either direction this season based on how the offensive line performs. The group has underwhelmed throughout Franklin’s tenure, even when he’s touted that the linemen were ready to take the next step forward.
He’s avoided doing that this season, instead putting the onus on those outside the program to determine how good the line is, even though improvement on the line has been a focus for the offense.
“It’s been emphasized,” Franklin said. “Again, I’m going to leave that up to you guys to tell me, which I know you clearly will, how we’re playing in that area.”
That seems like a coach who’s confident in his offensive line and ready to prove those who question it wrong. There is reason to believe it will, too. It’s not just lip service.
Olu Fashanu is set to start at left tackle and already showed how good he is when he played in the Outback Bowl at the end of last season. Guards Landon Tengwall, Sal Wormley and Hunter Nourzad have received positive reviews for their camp performances from coaches and teammates. Juice Scruggs was good at center last year and will only improve as he continues to take full control of the team’s protections. Caedan Wallace has been solid at right tackle, with the athletic ability to continue improving.
There are plenty of talented players in the group and they’ll take on a good but not great Purdue defense Thursday night. Success in that game is the minimum for a line that should be taking a step forward this season.
Final predictions
Penn State 23, Purdue 21: The Nittany Lions are still the more talented team despite their shortcomings, but it’s far from a lock that they’ll cover the 3.5 point spread. Purdue has home field advantage, a veteran quarterback of its own in Aidan O’Connell and a brilliant offensive mind at head coach in Jeff Brohm to find ways to score. Brohm should be able to draw up enough big play opportunities to get his team in the endzone a few times and keep the game close. It’s not outside of the realm of possibility that Purdue wins outright either.
MVP: Adisa Isaac. Isaac is making his return to the field after tearing his Achilles prior to the 2021 season. He’s an elite pass rusher who will be a big part of limiting Purdue’s big plays by getting into the backfield, disrupting O’Connell’s rhythm and creating turnovers opportunities for himself and his teammates.
Good gamble: This should be a low-scoring game with an elite Penn State defense and a good Purdue defense taking the field. Under 52 points is a good bet at -110 odds, but it’s worth considering moving the line even further down to 50.5 to get better odds at +110.
The last word
Penn State wide receivers coach Taylor Stubblefield, who starred at Purdue as a receiver from 2001-2004, on an excessive celebration penalty he received as a Boilermaker on a 97-yard touchdown catch.
“They were in Cover 0. Kyle (Orton) looked at me and I looked at Kyle. We gave the three look, which for us is 73, which meant a vertical (route). You look back now, it’s like ‘OK that was a decent release’ but the dude fell. So now for literally like 60 yards — that’s a long time, 60 yards — I’m running butt naked. Nobody around me. I just was excited, pumping my first, true pure excitement.”
