Ohio at Penn State predictions: How much will the Nittany Lions win their home opener by?
It’s almost time for Penn State’s home opener. Here are some final thoughts and predictions ahead of the Nittany Lions’ football game against Ohio this Saturday afternoon.
Finding a pass rush
Penn State’s defense played well in Week 1 despite giving up 24 points, but still had a hard time getting to Purdue quarterback Aidan O’Connell. The defense finished with only two sacks and one quarterback hit — and both sacks were by players in the back seven and not players who will consistently rush the passer this season.
Part of the reason that happened is because the Boilermakers were trying to get the ball out as quickly as possible, but Penn State still didn’t exactly force the issue in the game. Chop Robinson was clearly the best pass rusher on the Nittany Lions but at this point he hasn’t shown well enough against the run to play full-time. He’ll help in obvious passing downs and his explosion gives him the upside to be prolific, but Penn State will need other defensive ends to step up until he progresses further.
Right now that falls on Adisa Isaac and Nick Tarburton. Isaac did not look like the pre-injury version of himself against Purdue. He tore his Achilles during the 2021 offseason and missed the entire 2021 season, so it could take time for him to look completely normal. He did not play with burst when he was coming off the line of scrimmage. That’s a concern that will not go away until he starts beating his man more consistently. Tarburton is more of a high motor run defender that can earn a sack if a play extends, but isn’t a dynamic athlete that can consistently create pressure.
The Ohio offensive line should be beatable, so if those pass rushers can’t get pressure, the Nittany Lions might be in some trouble this season when it comes to getting after the quarterback.
Breaking the 100-yard rusher streak
The Nittany Lions haven’t had a running back break 100 yards rushing since November 2020 when Keyvone Lee did it, but this should be the weekend that streak ends. And frankly, if not now, then when?
Florida Atlantic didn’t exactly gash the Bobcat defense on the ground, but the Nittany Lions are significantly more talented than the Owls. They should be able to attack Ohio on the ground whenever they want and they have a group of running backs that should be able to break off the explosive runs that head coach James Franklin so badly desires. Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen seem like the most likely candidates to make it happen this week, but Keyvone Lee will have a shot as well if he gets enough carries.
Of course, there’s a chance that the three running backs split carries and none of them break the 100-yard threshold in the game. That’s where the explosive plays will be important in stopping the streak, largely because it wouldn’t be a surprise if Singleton or Allen gets 60+ yards on a play early on and makes it easy to cross the mark.
The big issue is what it means if Penn State is able to actually have a 100-yard rusher. Well, not much. It’s a nice round number, but is there really a difference between someone like Singleton or Allen rushing for 150 yards and all three running backs running for 50 apiece? Not really. This is always going to be a running back by committee approach. Rushing for 100 yards would be a nice goal for any of the backs, but it’s more important that Penn State is able to increase its success rate on the ground, picking up necessary yards on short yardage spots and breaking big gains on early downs.
Drew Allar’s follow-up performance
The future of the quarterback position at Penn State made his debut last week, and should have a chance to follow up on it this Saturday. Allar was phenomenal in his one drive of action, completing two of his four passing attempts, with his most impressive coming on an incompletion to Tyler Warren that was a dime of a throw. He split two defensive backs and perfectly lofted the pass — while adding enough strength to fit the ball into the open window.
This Saturday, Allar should have a chance to see the field. Franklin said he hoped to get his freshman quarterback more playing time against Ohio, but we’ll see what circumstances those reps come with. Penn State would surely like to get up early and sustain a massive lead to give Allar as many reps as possible in ideal — low pressure — circumstances. Is that a half of football? A quarter? That remains to be seen, but Franklin hasn’t exactly sent his backups out there early in the past. Generally speaking, he waits until his team is up four scores in the fourth quarter to bring them in. He mentioned this preseason that he’d like to get more reps for backups, so that should change when they come in.
Another scenario would be Allar coming in when the game is close, which doesn’t seem feasible. Franklin has been loyal to Clifford and it’s difficult to envision him going away from him now — unless things go catastrophically bad. What does that look like? Probably a loss for Penn State, which unlocks a whole different set of circumstances that arise. Realistically, Allar should get some snaps in the fourth quarter, and that will be the extent of it.
Final predictions
Penn State 42, Ohio 24: This game should be exciting from an offensive standpoint. The Bobcats are talented at the skill positions and have the ability to break open a few big plays. They’ll put the ball in the air enough that Penn State should be in position to snag a few turnovers and turn this into a blowout. That being said, the 24.5 point spread is tough to cover for the Nittany Lions.
MVP: Mitch Tinsley. The Nittany Lions saw their new No. 5 have the type of production their old No. 5 — Jahan Dotson — in his debut with the team against Purdue. Tinsley hauled in seven passes for 84 yards and touchdowns. If Penn State gets up big enough early the volume might not be the same, but I’d venture to guess he’d be part of the reason the team would have a lead in the first place.
Good gamble: This one was tough. The point spread is an intimidating one for Penn State, but at the same time, they have the offense to blow up the game early. Instead, I’ll go with the over here at 53.5 points. Ohio has a good enough offense to score at least 17, and Penn State should be able to get to 40 in this one.
The last word
Penn State cornerback Johnny Dixon on his position group.
“It might be the most confident group of people you ever meet.”
