Penn State at Auburn predictions: Can the Nittany Lions beat an SEC opponent on the road?
Penn State’s biggest non-conference matchup is nearly here. Here are some final thoughts and predictions ahead of the Nittany Lions’ football game against Auburn this Saturday afternoon.
Stopping the run
Penn State has to slow down Auburn’s offense just so it can get the ball back for its own. The Tigers do not seem to care about throwing the ball and I can’t imagine that changing this weekend.
Tank Bigsby is going to be the focal point of the rushing attack. He’s appropriately named, having the power and strength to blow through arm tackles and consistently get four yards per carry. Bigsby is the kind of runner the Nittany Lions need their entire front seven to combat against. That means utilizing more base packages on defense and having fewer defensive backs on the field. While that isn’t optimal considering Penn State’s personnel, it’s going to be difficult to consistently stop the run otherwise.
Daequan Hardy is without a doubt one of Penn State’s best defenders — and one of the better nickel cornerbacks in the Big Ten — but the Nittany Lions will need more size on the field. That should mean more Jonathan Sutherland and more “big nickel” rather than nickel — having an extra safety as a fifth defensive back rather than a corner like Hardy. It’s counter intuitive for Manny Diaz to take one of his better defenders off the field but it’s likely to be a necessity. The upside is building a lead will force Auburn to throw the ball, which it doesn’t want to do, and that will bring Hardy back onto the field for more snaps.
The ideal scenario for Penn State is playing base early and forcing the Tigers to spread it out and throw, putting the Nittany Lions’ nickel package, its best personnel grouping, on the field when the game is on the line late.
Creating separation at receiver
The Nittany Lions need their offense to be explosive on Saturday and that starts at wide receiver. They managed to run the ball well against Ohio but that isn’t likely to be the case against a good Auburn defense. Instead, the big plays will have to come on the outside. To be clear, that can include the running backs in the screen game. The primary objective for Penn State offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich should be getting the ball to the team’s best players in the open field, and that’s what his offense generally does.
That means the wide receivers will need to separate from their defenders and make something happen before the ball gets to them. Fortunately for the Nittany Lion weapons, Yurcich will do a large part of the work and scheme his guys open. But there will inevitably be a situation where a play doesn’t go to plan and a wide receiver has to create the separation on their own.
Parker Washington and Mitch Tinsley are strong and physical targets who can create enough space to give Sean Clifford a window to throw. Clifford hasn’t always hit those windows, however, and they’ll surely be smaller against Auburn’s defense than they were against Ohio or Purdue. The onus will be on Washington, Tinsley and the rest of the receiver room to create pathways for their quarterback to get them the ball. That will create the necessary big plays Penn State will need and give them a chance to put Auburn in a hole early and force the Tiger offense to throw.
Stop forcing the run
Yes, Nick Singleton was awesome last week. Yes, the Nittany Lions ran the ball spectacularly against Ohio. No, that does not mean they would be justified trying to hammer the run against Auburn. Saturday’s performance against the Bobcats is without a doubt promising for a team that has so desperately wanted to run the ball. In fact, it should allow Penn State to run the ball more than I would have otherwise anticipated in the game. But it does not mean the Nittany Lions should do what they did against Purdue when they ran on first and second down of their first four sets of downs.
That level of “commitment” to the run when it’s not your best asset is a great way to put your team behind early in the game. The plus side for Penn State is that the defense is so good that they can get away with some three-and-outs on offense. Still, they shouldn’t be making them more likely by ramming into a brick wall on first and second downs. Runs are at their most valuable when the defense isn’t anticipating them, especially when your offensive line isn’t elite.
Yurcich has proven to be an excellent play designer, showing he knows how to get his receivers open all over the field. Letting him do that should be the priority rather than proving they can run the ball. Sometimes teams have to throw the ball 40+ times to win. That is fine. This looks like it will be the type of game where rushing yards will be tough to come by, with the team’s best chance at them coming on explosive plays. Singleton is already a very good back, and giving him the advantage of fewer players near the line of scrimmage by going pass heavy will only help him out.
Final predictions
Penn State 27, Auburn 23: The conflicting styles will make this one of the most interesting matchups Penn State has this season. Auburn wants to run the ball down their opponents throat and don’t have much interest in ever throwing it. The Tigers have the backs to do it too and will do their best to maintain possession and limit the Nittany Lions’ opportunities. The bet here is that Penn State hits enough big plays to force the issue and earn a big road win.
MVP: PJ Mustipher. Penn State will have to slow the Tigers down in order to hit on those big plays and Mustipher is a huge part of that. He’s the team’s best defensive tackle, boasting the size and athleticism to stuff the run against a strong and athletic Auburn offensive line. He’ll need to spearhead Penn State’s run defense Saturday afternoon.
Good gamble: The lines feel pretty spot on here with Penn State favored by 3.5 points and the over/under set at 47.5 I would lean toward the over, with Auburn playing against a defense willing to take risks being the difference maker here. They should be able to earn at least one explosive score and help put this over the top.
The last word
Penn State LB Curtis Jacobs on having Dan Connor around as an analyst on staff.
“I’m gonna ask him as many questions as I can. I wanna pick his brain as much as I can because that’s an all-time great and you don’t get a chance to talk to that many all-time greats when you’re playing this game. Every time I have a question, having him in the room has been really important. Even if he wasn’t a defensive analyst I’d be bombarding him with questions when he comes back. You should ask Jack Ham how many questions I ask him when he comes on campus.”
