Central Michigan at Penn State predictions: How much will the Nittany Lions win by?
Penn State’s final non-conference matchup of 2022 is almost here. Here are some final thoughts and predictions ahead of the Nittany Lions’ football game against Central Michigan Saturday afternoon.
Sean Clifford building off Auburn
The way Clifford played against the Tigers doesn’t necessarily have to be the baseline for how he plays the rest of the year, but that’s the type of quarterback that should show up more often than not, beginning against a bad Central Michigan team. The redshirt senior starting quarterback has been plagued with indecisiveness, accuracy issues and a frantic reaction to pressure that may or may not be there. Against Auburn, he had none of those issues. Clifford made quick decisions and delivered accurate passes. But most importantly, he stayed calm within the pocket and didn’t react to pressure that wasn’t there. Unsurprisingly, he wasn’t sacked once in the game.
That’s got to be the goal for a quarterback that has taken a beating throughout his career and has displayed model toughness after every hit. Avoiding hits is a big deal for Clifford, even with the much improved quarterback room behind him. It’s not necessarily about avoiding injuries. Of course, that’s a big help, but it also means Clifford is playing in the most optimal form of offense under offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich.
Staying inside the pocket and working through his progression is key in an offense that is excellent at scheming wide receivers open and that’s what Yurcich does best. He’s going to put Clifford and his weapons in position to succeed, it’s just a matter of taking advantage of those situations. This weekend is going to be a good example of what this offense can do at its best. Central Michigan isn’t good enough defensively to stay with Penn State’s athletes, and the play designs should give those athletes an extra few yards to work with. Clifford having a calm and casual great performance would be meaningful coming off a big win on the road against the Tigers.
Wreaking havoc on defense
The matchup with Auburn felt like a breakthrough performance for defensive coordinator Manny Diaz. That’s not to say his unit wasn’t great in the team’s first two games of the season, but last week looked like the optimal performance for what Diaz wants. The goal under the new defensive coordinator, broadly speaking, is to be aggressive. That means flying to the ball — when it’s in the air, when it’s on the ground and when an offensive player has it. Penn State did that at an elite level against Auburn. They got to the quarterback, earning six sacks, and attacked the ball, forcing three fumbles and earning two interceptions.
This is going to be an excellent opportunity to keep that up. Senior safety Ji’Ayir Brown mentioned after the game that the performance was meaningful to him and his teammates.
“We’ve been waiting to find out who we are,” Brown said. “I think that’s why you’ve seen a lot more enthusiasm today and a lot more guys excited because it finally clicked. All of the stuff that Manny told us was gonna happen is starting to happen.”
Now it’s about building off that and doing it again. That should come easier this week against a clearly inferior opponent in Central Michigan. The offense the Nittany Lions are going to face has blown up for 44 points against one Power-5 opponent — Oklahoma State — but that’s a very different unit. This Penn State one should be one of the best in the country and should be decimating opponents that don’t come close to their talent level. Central Michigan is one of those opponents. It would be a disappointment if the Nittany Lions don’t get a few sacks and another turnover or two this Saturday when they play the Chippewas.
Playing the backups
Penn State has dug deep into its depth chart over the last two weeks and should have yet another opportunity to do it again this weekend. This game should be a blowout relatively early and Franklin has already made it clear he’s willing to put his backups into the game much earlier than he has in the past. In previous seasons, he would wait until his team had a four possession lead in the fourth quarter before pulling his starters. Now, that’s happening mostly in the third quarter with an increased rotation of players in the game as soon as it kicks off.
That means a couple of things. First things first is redshirt monitoring. Right now there are three freshmen who have played in two of the team’s three games — safety KJ Winston, cornerback Cam Miller and wide receiver Kaden Saunders. They can all play in two more games before burning their redshirts. While it would make sense to let them play the rest of the year, Franklin said there’s at least one player who played in two games the team would still like to redshirt. Saturday’s game should be telling in that regard. Whichever of the three doesn’t get in is likely destined to preserve the year of eligibility.
The second is what everyone is yearning to see more of — Drew Allar. Allar has played in three games, is clearly the team’s No. 2 quarterback and should have yet another opportunity to put his talent on display against Central Michigan. He’s been excellent in his limited action, with very few flaws surfacing so far this season. Maybe this is the first time he struggles, but odds are Allar is going to light it up again in backup duty and keep building toward taking over the most important position in the program — even if it’s not until next season.
Final predictions
Penn State 42, Central Michigan 13: There’s a real world where Penn State puts up 60 points or more in this game. The Nittany Lions are significantly better than Central Michigan and have an offense to light up the Chippewa defense. The real question is if Central Michigan will be able to score at all. My guess is no.
MVP: Nick Singleton. Two straight 100+ yard games will become three this weekend and it probably won’t take all that much to get there. This is the type of matchup that could end with eight carries for well over 100 yards and multiple touchdowns for the freshman running back. He’s in a good spot to dominate this Saturday once again.
Good gamble: The spread for this game feels really low. It’s lingering somewhere around 27.5 right now and even that feels low. I know my projection has this at a 29-point margin, but it feels far more likely that it gets to 40 than it does of going the other direction. Take Penn State against the spread confidently in this one.
The last word
Penn State head coach James Franklin on Kaytron Allen losing weight after getting to campus.
“It’s funny you say that, because I was kidding around about his nickname, Fat Man. He’s less and less of his nickname. But, yeah, obviously coming from a program like IMG, he understood how to compete, you know, in the backfield for carries. Played a national schedule for type of competition. But I do think even with the really good training that they do at place like IMG, he’s probably changed his body as much as anybody in our program.”
