Northwestern at Penn State predictions: Why will the Nittany Lions win in a blowout?
Penn State’s second Big Ten conference matchup of 2022 is almost here. Here are some final thoughts and predictions ahead of the Nittany Lions’ football game against Northwestern Saturday afternoon.
Allar, Allar, Allar
I’m curious to see just how early Drew Allar takes the field against the Wildcats. The freshman quarterback has played in the team’s first four games and Penn State head coach James Franklin said he was supposed to get in for a series in the second quarter of the games against Ohio and Central Michigan. That ended up not happening but there’s a clear effort to get the former five-star recruit as much game action as possible this season. This is going to be one of the team’s last few chances — if not the last chance — to do that in 2022.
Allar has been excellent when he’s taken the field in those first four games and some extended time against a Big Ten defense, although a bad one, will help continue his development. The reps he got when he came in against Purdue were helpful but that was limited to one series. Franklin has generally played Allar for a few series in each game before pulling him for third-string quarterback Christian Veilleux to finish the game. While that’s a good plan that keeps most of the depth chart happy, it could be worth making some changes this week.
The freshman backup has been so good in part because he hasn’t been on the field long enough to make any major mistakes. As odd as it seems, it could do him some good to make a mistake on the field in meaningless game action — when it comes to the final result — rather than to do it when a game is on the line. He’s not perfect, no quarterback is, so finding out how he responds to adversity will only help the staff evaluate exactly when he’ll be ready and just how soon that can be.
Testing Dennis-Sutton
Penn State’s pass rushers have played increasingly well as the season has gone on and they’ll be tasked with one of their most difficult matchups this year. Northwestern offensive tackle Peter Skoronski is a good athlete on the offensive line who should end up going in the first round. That matters for the Nittany Lions because they have a group of pass rushers that could be one of the best in the conference. It’s one thing to continue improving as the season moves forward, as previously mentioned, it’s another to do it against the best competition.
I’ve already written this week about what this will mean for the likes of Adisa Isaac, Chop Robinson and Nick Tarburton, but the matchup goes further than that for the Nittany Lions. They have a few pass rushers that do not start or necessarily get extended game action, but who could play an important role as early as late this season if injury issues pop up. And if they don’t then, they’ll surely be relied upon by next season. Getting young players reps will be a theme for Penn State this game but the timing of those reps will be important, too.
Dani Dennis-Sutton should be the main beneficiary of the deeper rotation this week and if he can do some damage against Skoronski, it will be meaningful. Dennis-Sutton — like Allar — is a former five-star recruit who is expected to eventually be the best player on his side of the ball. He already has three sacks this season and could add to it late in the game again. However, the value he gets from facing Skoronski will extend well beyond the box score and is a good next step for the freshman defensive end.
Coming out healthy
Nothing is more important for Penn State this weekend than coming out of it without any meaningful injuries. Northwestern isn’t good enough to put a scare into the Nittany Lions so Franklin’s emphasis on getting more depth involved will be put to good use this week. Of course, this could go the other way and the Wildcats could show up to a game for the first time since their opener, but I doubt it. Health has to be the No. 1 priority for Franklin this week. He already made that the case last week, sitting Hunter Nourzad with “bumps and bruises” and saying he could have played if absolutely necessary.
That was the right choice then and it would be again if Nourzad and other banged up players aren’t ready to go this weekend. Anyone who isn’t at near perfect health should sit this one out or play the bare minimum. Penn State is looking into the eyes of its toughest stretch of the season and could give players almost two weeks to make sure they’re fully healthy with the bye looming next week. That stretch, which features games against Michigan, Minnesota and Ohio State, will dictate how the season is viewed.
The Nittany Lions need to win at least one of those games to have a chance at getting to double digit victories and in all reality should be trying to win at least two of them. Doing that will put them on pace to go 11-1 this year, which would be a resounding success for the program considering where expectations were prior to the opener. The three game stretch should be the priority and that’s able to be the case because Penn State shouldn’t deal with much trouble from Northwestern.Final predictions
Penn State 42, Northwestern 17: The Nittany Lions should not lose this game and should cover if they keep their starters in for the duration of the matchup. The problem is, they won’t be keeping the starters in long and are primed to get backdoored by Northwestern. Either way, this should feel like a blowout regardless of the final score.
MVP: Curtis Jacobs. Linebacker wasn’t expected to be a strong suit this season for Penn State, but Jacobs is already carrying on the history of Linebacker U. The rest of the group is better than expected too, but Jacobs is the star of the show. He should be all over the field against the Wildcats and make enough plays to stand out this Saturday.
Good gamble: The Nittany Lions failed to cover last week but Northwestern has some of the worst losses in the conference this season. The Wildcats are primed to get blown out and 26.5 points doesn’t feel like a big enough spread, but we watched Penn State fail to cover against a MAC team last week. The first half spread is much more appealing at Penn State -14 and is the bet worth taking in this one.
The last word
Penn State head coach James Franklin on Barney Amor:
“Talk about a guy that’s maximized his experience, I think he’s got seven degrees now or seven pieces of paper, whether they’re degrees or certificates or whatever it is, from a combination of his previous institution as well as at Penn State. He’s just been phenomenal. Gave a great share the other night at the hotel, and he’s mature. I think that plays such a big part really throughout your football team, and it’s something that’s harder and harder to have and develop based on just how college football has changed.”
