Minnesota at Penn State predictions: Can the Nittany Lions get on track with a White Out?
Penn State’s in need of a win after getting blown out by the Michigan Wolverines on the road last week. Here are some final thoughts and predictions ahead of the Nittany Lions’ White Out game against Minnesota Saturday night.
Stay on the field
We all saw it last week. Penn State’s offense couldn’t get anything going and it spelled doom early on against Michigan. The team came off the field quickly and helped the Michigan offense exhaust the Nittany Lion defense by halftime. That can not be the case again this week. Minnesota will absolutely try to do the same — like Michigan it has one of the best defenses in the country — and if it succeeds Penn State is going to lose in embarrassing fashion again. The offense should do whatever it takes to maintain its first few drives of the game just to prove it can.
Like Michigan, Minnesota doesn’t have a particularly explosive offense, but it does have one that will sustain drives and beat a defense down into submission. The team lost star receiver Chris Autman-Bell for the season and has become even more reliant on running back Mohamed Ibrahim to carry the load. Fortunately for them, he has. That’s of increased importance now that redshirt senior starting quarterback Tanner Morgan is not a sure thing to play this weekend after leaving last week’s game against Illinois with an injury.
Not having Morgan should give Penn State a chance to stop Minnesota’s drives early, but it’s tough to believe that’ll happen given how last week went. The Golden Gophers have the physicality to completely wear down the Nittany Lions. It’s imperative for Penn State to sustain drives. Really, just one sustained drive would do wonders. It’s not like it’s going to guarantee a Penn State win or anything, but it would at least give the team a chance rather than having the offense watch its defense run out of gas from the sideline.
Jump out early
You know what’s better than just sustaining drives? Scoring on them. This isn’t too far from what Penn State needed to happen against Michigan. In fact, it’s almost identical. That’s going to be the case with everything really, because these are two teams that play nearly the same way and now the Wolverines laid out a game plan for how Minnesota can have success. Had the Nittany Lions been able to score early and build a real lead — not the two one-point leads they had, but a meaningful multiple score lead — then they would have compromised Michigan.
Minnesota is even more vulnerable to having to come from behind to earn a win. The Golden Gophers might not have Morgan and even if they do they don’t have the outside weapons to light up the Penn State secondary — which remains one of the best in the country. If Morgan doesn’t play, their potential struggles to come back would only increase. An early lead could doom the Minnesota upset bid in this one. Ibrahim is one of the best backs in the country and can do a lot with not much, but asking him to be the catalyst for a multiple score comeback is probably too much for any back in the country.
The Nittany Lions have to get on the board in the first quarter of this game. It doesn’t have to be the first drive — it would help if it was — but it has to be before Minnesota can build a lead of its own. If not, there isn’t a ton of reason to believe Penn State is going to be able to come back given how mediocre its offense has been this season.
Be flexible
And, well, how are they going to get up early? By doing what’s working and not hammering away at a broken game plan just because. The Nittany Lions have stressed balance but if balance isn’t working, they need to go away from it. There is no doubt about it, Penn State’s running game has been much better this season, but that doesn’t mean it’s elite. That also doesn’t mean it should be the focal point for a play caller that made his name as a play designer within a pass heavy offense.
I feel a little fooled after buying into the run game last week and even starting to believe that balance was the best way forward for Penn State. Alas, the Nittany Lions once again proved a point I had made time and time again last season — they need to throw the ball to succeed against the best teams in college football. I write that with a full understanding of who Sean Clifford is as a quarterback. I also do it knowing I said I would start Drew Allar at quarterback the rest of the season, not because I would turn the page to the future, but because I thought he was the best option right now.
But that is besides the point. Penn State can not afford to keep running if they aren’t having success running. They can’t come out and run on first and second down, relegating themselves to third and long consistently. They need to do what is working. Last week, that wasn’t much. But if they come out this week and are unable to get the running game going, then they need to lean on their passing game. And if they don’t want to do that because they don’t have faith in Clifford, then they need to put in a quarterback they do trust.
Final predictions
Minnesota 21, Penn State 20: My initial inclination was to take Penn State, but after watching Minnesota’s defense my thoughts have changed. The Golden Gophers have the looks of one of the best units in the country on that side of the ball and are probably going to give the Nittany Lions trouble. That, and they already have the playbook for how to beat Penn State after Michigan showed them last week.
MVP: Mo Ibrahim. A Minnesota win is a game that features Ibrahim serving as the best player on the field. He’s going to carry the offense — no pun intended — and will be the reason the Nittany Lions are unable to get their defense off the field. Give me 100+ rush yards and at least two touchdowns for Ibrahim.
Good gamble: Penn State’s totals have been tough to prognosticate, but I still feel good about the under in this game. It’s quite low at 44.5 but Minnesota is going to try to control the game and the clock by running it. Unless the Golden Gophers start turning the ball over early, I would lean that this will stay under.
The last word
Penn State head coach James Franklin on the team’s offensive identity:
“Yeah, I think there has been times where I think it’s been pretty obvious what our identity is, which is run and play-action pass and be efficient in the passing game. We really haven’t been explosive in the passing game this year like we had last year and previous years, but I think when we have been at our best we have been able to run and pass the ball in play-action pass and spread the ball around.
“That’s I think when we’re going to be at our best. Obviously when we can sprinkle in some explosive passes like we did on Saturday, those things would be helpful, no doubt about it.
“I think it’s when we are able to run and throw the ball consistently and keep people on their toes, not being able to predict what we’re going to do and how we’re going to do it.”
