Ohio State at Penn State predictions: Can the Nittany Lions knock off the Buckeyes?
Penn State’ has a massive opportunity this weekend after blowing out Minnesota last weekend. Here are some final thoughts and predictions ahead of the Nittany Lions’ game against Ohio State Saturday afternoon.
Containing explosive plays
Ohio State has one of the best offenses in the country, ranking second in ESPN’s Bill Connelly’s SP+, a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. The Buckeyes are ranked that highly because, well, their offense is awesome but also because it’s incredibly explosive. They gash opposing defenses with big play after big play, jumping on opponents before they know what hit them. Teams can get up 7-0 and within 10 minutes of game action suddenly Ohio State leads by 14 and nobody knows how it happened.
Well, that’s not entirely true. Everyone probably knows how it happened. The Buckeyes hammered away in the short areas of the field before exploding for a big play that results in a touchdown. The Nittany Lions always prioritize limiting those types of plays but this week it’s going to be imperative for them to slow the Ohio State offense down at any cost. It’s not likely they’ll be able to keep the Buckeyes down for the entire game but allowing only one or two touchdowns off deep shots or medium passing plays where receivers can run would be a gigantic victory for the Nittany Lions.
So, how do they limit those plays? Well some may say they should play it safe in coverage but I’m a firm believer that doing that will only invite a death by one thousand cuts. Instead, Penn State should be aggressive in coverage before the pass and once the ball is in the air. The Nittany Lions need to play the game at their pace, otherwise they’re just inviting Ohio State to continue attacking their defense and playing the game exactly how they want. If that happens, they’re going to score 40+ points in the blink of an eye.
Force C.J. Stroud to make mistakes
The other way to take away explosive plays is by taking the ball back before any Buckeyes can get their hands on it. For as good as C.J. Stroud has been this season — he’s one of the clear Heisman favorites at this point — he isn’t perfect. He’s shown the willingness to be aggressive when it comes to throwing passes and that isn’t always a positive. Now, most of the time it is because he’s so good he can fit balls into tight windows and connect with his targets, but sometimes things don’t go so well.
Stroud will put the ball up for grabs on occasion on downfield shots and those tight windows are sometimes windows that don’t exist. Those are opportunities Penn State has to take advantage of this Saturday. Getting some extra pressure on Stroud will help with that — playing quarterback is always tougher when you don’t have enough time to work through your progression — but it will really come down to the coverage and ball skills of the Nittany Lions. Fortunately for them they have some of the elite playmakers in the country in their secondary and they’re prone to forcing mistakes by opposing quarterbacks.
Joey Porter Jr. has, deservedly, received most of the attention in Penn State’s secondary but he’s not the only one who has been a shutdown corner this year on the team. Kalen King looks like a true No. 1 cornerback and just happens to be on the same team as another one. Those two can stick to receivers’ hips in coverage while also locating the ball and making a play on it once it’s in the air. Not to mention, safety Ji’Ayir Brown is elite in coverage thanks to his instincts and tendency to find his way to the ball. Those three will have a chance to turn Saturday’s game on its head if they can steal a possession or two from the Buckeyes.
Get going early
Those first two points are putting a lot of pressure on the defense to make things happen and that’s partially because they might need to score once or twice for Penn State to win. The only way that won’t be a necessity is if the offense does something it has struggled with this season — getting going early. That was the case against Minnesota but eventually the unit turned it around and now it needs to carry that into Saturday’s matchup. The Nittany Lions found what worked against the Golden Gophers and hammered away at it. That has to be the case this weekend.
Now, what will work? That’s tough to say. Ohio State’s defense ranks fifth in SP+ and looks like a team hitting its stride on that side of the ball. That might just be because they played Iowa — owners of the most incompetent offense in the country — last week. Penn State should look to its matchup advantages and exploit them until they can’t anymore. That means starting the game by getting Theo Johnson, Mitch Tinsley and Parker Washington involved early in the passing game, while getting Nick Singleton in space with screens and Kaytron Allen opportunities to run.
Johnson’s involvement could surprise some but it shouldn’t. He’s a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses and needs to be a bigger part of the Penn State offense. He’s bigger than pretty much everyone that isn’t a lineman but has the athleticism and catch radius of a receiver. Johnson doesn’t have to get open to be open because he’s going to beat most defenders to the ball whether he’s covered or not because he’s massive. His five catches for 75 yards and a touchdown was a good start to his involvement last week. Now Penn State needs to expand on that early on against the Buckeyes.
Final predictions
Ohio State 35, Penn State 21: It might seem counter-intuitive to pick this game to be closer than the Michigan game since I think Ohio State is the best team in the country, but the Nittany Lions always show up to face the Buckeyes. In fact, I don’t think them winning the game is out of the question. Now, I don’t think it’s likely at all but still possible. That being said, Ohio State is still significantly more talented.
MVP: Marvin Harrison Jr. Harrison is the best receiver in the country. Not the Big Ten — the country. He’s an unbelievable athlete who can beat any corner in the country with his refined route running ability. Joey Porter Jr. will put up a valiant fight but Harrison’s impact is inevitable.
Good gamble: Penn State is currently a 15.5 point underdog and I would lean toward taking the Nittany Lions with the points, although I think it’s going to be tight. The over/under is currently at 60.5 which feels about right, but I would again lean toward the under because There are more likely outcomes where Penn State doesn’t score enough than ones where they contribute to an over hitting.
The last word
Penn State head coach James Franklin on why Sean Clifford isn’t appreciated by the fan base:
“Yeah, I’m spending my energy, all of my energy on getting ready to play a really good Ohio State team. I’m pouring all my energy into loving and supporting my players and staff, and focusing on things that I can control and impact. That’s where all my energy is focused on is supporting my staff, supporting and loving the players, and focusing on getting ready for a really good Ohio State team on offense, defense and special teams.
And those other things, I’m not spending any time on because to be honest with you, unless you have something for me or somebody else, I don’t see how I can impact that.”
