Penn State at Indiana predictions: Can the Nittany Lions get back on track on the road?
Penn State is in position to make a New Year’s Six bowl game for the first time since 2019 if it can win out, beginning this week against Indiana. Here are some final thoughts, predictions and analysis ahead of the Nittany Lions’ matchup with the Hoosiers Saturday in Bloomington.
Taking care of business
This should be a relatively easy one for Penn State. Indiana is struggling with, uh, everything. The defense has been fine at times but mostly terrible. Same with the offense. Penn State should get out in front very early in this one and should be able to make the result a foregone conclusion by halftime. Anything other than that kind of start should be concerning for Penn State fans because the talent, coaching and system advantages all lie with the Nittany Lions in this matchup.
Offensively, Indiana is a team in turmoil. Offensive coordinator Walt Bell has not done much to make this unit more palatable and starting quarterback Connor Bazelak may not even be the starter this week. It doesn’t help that top wide receiver Cam Camper tore his ACL and is out for the season, either. Not to mention, Penn State’s defense is among the best in the country and can force turnovers at a rate that should terrify the Hoosiers. I would be surprised if Indiana can get much going on the ground or in the air in this game.
Things will be better for the Hoosiers when they don’t have the ball, but it’s Penn State that will dictate how much better. This is more of a matter of which Nittany Lion offense shows up in this game. If it’s the one that played against Michigan then Indiana will be able to put up a fight, but if it’s the one that was there for the middle of the Ohio State game and the entirety of the Auburn game, then Penn State is going to be able to build a nice lead early on Saturday afternoon.
Keep piling on
It’s time to impress the College Football Playoff selection committee. You may be wondering why that matters given Penn State’s two losses and nearly impossible chances of winning the Big Ten. It’s all about the New Year’s Six for the Nittany Lions now. They don’t have much to play for when it comes to this season, but it seems clear at this point that head coach James Franklin wants to get this program to where it used to be. Where is that? Right now it’s playing in one of the best bowl games possible.
That’s a good starting point for a program that should be able to routinely make the playoff itself once it expands to 12, but that’s down the road. Penn State should be in position to go to one of those vaunted New Year’s Six games — my money is on the Orange Bowl if the Nittany Lions get to 10 wins — if they win out and do so impressively enough that they’re a top-12 team in the country. That means dominating the teams they should dominate, and unfortunately for the Hoosiers, they’re one of those teams.
Penn State has the firepower to make that happen, too. Parker Washington is a dynamic receiver that can help break the game open with big plays and the same is true of running back Nick Singleton. Most important, however, is the defense’s ability to turn opponents over and do its own fair share of scoring. The offense should be able to do plenty of damage on its own against a bad Indiana team that will leave its defense on the field for far too long, and Penn State’s defense should be able to supplement that scoring by getting a touchdown or two on its own. There’s also another added benefit to piling it on....
Give the youth a chance
This applies across the board for the Nittany Lions, but especially at quarterback. Where Drew Allar continues to loom as the future of the program while Clifford winds his career down. Allar should really be the top priority for Penn State the rest of the way, but Franklin has made it clear that won’t be the case unless he wrestles the job away from Clifford. Everyone knows the deal there already, though. Allar is the face of the program starting next year at the latest and he’s the player most likely to take the Nittany Lions to the playoff. Let’s look elsewhere, though, because it’s going to be important for Penn State to get a whole slew of players ready for next year.
The team’s defense is losing Ji’Ayir Brown and PJ Mustipher for sure, and probably Joey Porter Jr. as well at the least. This is going to be a good chance to play their eventual replacements in meaningful snaps as well. That’s not to say the trio of veterans shouldn’t play, they should. But rotating them out more with the game in hand will allow more young players to be ready next year and allow them to stay healthy for their future NFL careers.
The same applies on offense. Mitch Tinsley is out of eligibility this year and the team could see some turnover on the offensive line as well. Why not rotate young guys in, as long as they’re ready, with the hope of setting up the type of breakout campaign star left tackle Olu Fashanu has experienced this season after starting in last year’s Outback Bowl.
Final predictions
Penn State 42, Indiana 7: I will be stunned if it feels like Indiana has a chance at any point beyond the few minutes of this one. The Hoosiers are outmatched across the board and don’t have the coaching to make up for it. The Nittany Lions are in position to jump out to a lead early and never look back, cruising to a blowout victory.
MVP: Theo Johnson. Penn State might have a breakout star on its hands and frankly that’s not all that surprising. Johnson has always been immensely gifted, but now he’s turning it into production thanks to the offense finally turning its attention to the tight ends. Johnson is a matchup nightmare and Indiana won’t have an answer for him as he eclipses 100 receiving yards for the first time in his career.
Good gamble: Penn State is favored by 13.5 points in this one and, well, that’s not enough. Indiana has a major question mark at quarterback, is without its top receiver for the rest of the season and doesn’t have a prolific running game. I picked Indiana to score seven in this game, but that might be too high. Penn State -13.5 is the way to go here.
The last word
Franklin when asked if Clifford’s captaincy will impact if he continues starting:
“It’s funny that you say that, because I’ve noticed this year, and I actually even think this week, I’ve noticed this year a ton of it. I don’t know if it’s the COVID six-year deal or what, but I noticed a ton of guys that were voted captain in pre-season, you know, that aren’t starting anymore across the league or opponents that we’ve played.”
