Penn State vs. Maryland predictions: Can the Nittany Lions build momentum after a win?
Penn State can keep its momentum rolling this weekend after blowing out Indiana last week. The Nittany Lions will take on the Maryland Terrapins in search of a second win in a row. Here are some final thoughts, predictions and analysis ahead of the Nittany Lions’ matchup with the Terrapins Saturday afternoon in Beaver Stadium.
Limit the passing game
This is how Maryland stays in the game — it leans on quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa and allows him to get the ball to his playmakers in space. Take any aspect of that away and Penn State should be able to have success. Really there are two aspects of it the team can make difficult for the Terrapins.
The first is the ability for Tagovailoa to get the ball out to players like Jacob Copeland and Rakim Jarrett. Putting pressure on the Maryland quarterback will make things difficult for him and make it harder to get the ball out. The Nittany Lions have the pass rushers to get home and make Tagovailoa uncomfortable, and when rushing four doesn’t work they have the blitz packages to double down on pressure. Chop Robinson could be in for an especially big day against the program he spent his first year of college with, but Adisa Isaac could also get good rushes in off the edge.
If Penn State can’t get pressure then it needs its cornerbacks to prevent Jarrett, Copeland and other Maryland wide receivers from running into open space. Again, the Nittany Lions have the personnel to do that, it’s just a matter of getting the job done. Joey Porter Jr. and Kalen King are more than capable of limiting any wide receivers and preventing them from having a big game. Tying those two things together — the pass rush and the coverage — should make Saturday a very long day for the Terrapins.
Keep plugging the OL gaps
Penn State has struggled in the past when it has had to fill holes along the offensive line, but that wasn’t the case on Saturday. More importantly, it needs to be the case again this Saturday for the Nittany Lions to stay on the path to 10 regular season wins.
There is going to be at least one starter out and maybe more. Landon Tengwall is going to be out at left guard for the rest of the season, and should be replaced by Hunter Nourzad, although Nourzad also got banged up last week. That’s on top of Olu Fashanu missing last week, along with Caedan Wallace.
Based on James Franklin’s comments about Drew Shelton potentially not being redshirted, I would guess Fashanu remains out. Wallace could be back after Franklin said the team hopes to have him this weekend after thinking it could last weekend. That means Shelton is likely in at left tackle, but Bryce Effner could take that spot if Wallace goes at right tackle.
The offensive line is much different than the one the team started the season with and the fact that the group didn’t nosedive last week is a good sign moving forward. The offensive line will have to keep up that level of play this week in what should be Penn State’s most difficult game until the bowl game.
Don’t fall behind
It happened in 2020 and the Nittany Lions got lit up from there. They need to build up or lead or keep this game close because Maryland has an offense that is explosive enough to build upon a lead and quickly. Jarrett is one of the best receivers in the Big Ten and can break a defense with a short catch that turns into an 80-yard touchdown.
The real point here, however, is less about Maryland’s offense and more about Penn State’s offense. The Nittany Lions have generally been better at playing with a lead than from behind — Ohio State game notwithstanding. Having a lead allows them to run the ball more, something Franklin has strongly emphasized this season. The team’s running backs are also good enough to break off the kind of big plays usually reserved for the passing game, allowing Penn State to be explosive without putting the ball in the air.
That’s a good thing, because the Nittany Lions have had turnover issues in the past. Starting quarterback Sean Clifford has had interception troubles and putting the ball in the air more only means more opportunities for those mistakes to occur — especially when there’s more pressure to score because his team is trailing. Allowing him to take a back seat in the offense and put the pressure on the running game, pressure it has withstood for the most part, and gives Penn State a better chance to win Saturday.
Final predictions
Penn State 31, Maryland 21: I think this is a fairly easy Penn State win that may not feel that way for all 60 minutes. I don’t know that the Nittany Lion lead ever reaches three scores, but I do think it will be the type of game where Maryland is kept at arm’s length for the majority of the action. This is the last real test for the Nittany Lions, and a win should push their probability of reaching 10 victories way higher.
MVP: Nick Singleton. Maryland’s defense should be susceptible to big plays, and while I don’t think Singleton will lead the running backs in touches or the team in carries, I do think he’s going to have a big game. That means multiple big plays — like a 50+ yard screen or rushing touchdown — and multiple scores for the true freshman running back.
Good gamble: Penn State’s offense should be able to do enough to win, and its defense should be able to limit Maryland. That combination should lead to an under — mainly that the offense will likely do just enough to win rather than blow out the Terps Saturday. The current total is at 59.5, and I’d lean the under before I take either direction of the 10.5 point spread.
The last word
Franklin on recruiting Shelton:
“Well, he’s a unique ... COVID recruiting story. Literally I think one of the first tape we got on him was him blocking his sister in the backyard. Didn’t have tape. He’s got a sister who’s tall. I think she’s actually got a volleyball scholarship. Literally he’s in the backyard pass setting with his sister, and she won a few reps, to be honest with you.
But that was just kind of one of those weird COVID deals where you’re trying to get information, and it kind of went from there.
But then afterwards he ended up transferring high schools and then transferring back. We had a really strong relationship with his mom and his sister, and we were able to kind of weather that storm of the recruiting process. Then from that point on, he’s been phenomenal.”
