How can Penn State avoid being upset by Michigan State? Here are the game’s 2 key matchups
Penn State is set to take on Michigan State this weekend in its final regular season game. The Nittany Lions will celebrate their seniors while also trying to secure their first 10-win season since 2019.
Let’s take a look at the two key matchups that will impact the game.
Jon Sauber: Michigan State RB Jalen Berger vs. Penn State’s run defense
This, like the last two matchups, should be a blowout in Penn State’s favor. The Nittany Lions are double digit favorites once again and should be able to take care of business and get their 10th win of the season. The only way Michigan State can change that is if it grinds the game down, limits possessions, doesn’t turn the ball over and scores on as many drives as possible. That starts and ends with getting the running game going. Jalen Berger has been good in his first season with the Spartans after transferring from Wisconsin, but he’ll have to be great this weekend.
He’s racked up 669 yards and six touchdowns on 141 carries this season and is coming off three good performances, including tallying 119 yards on 21 carries against Indiana last week. He’s capable of breaking away from defenses with his long speed but does most of his damage by getting in and out of cuts smoothly and getting downfield. Berger is not the best back Penn State will end up having faced this season, but he’s still a good one.
The Nittany Lions’ run defense has been good for most of the season but it has been vulnerable at times to giving up big plays. The unit can create pressure and win its individual battles to get into the backfield quickly, but occasionally a mistimed blitz has pushed too many defenders upfield and taken them out of the play. That’s allowed big plays at times and is something the team will have to be aware of this Saturday. Of course, Michigan State isn’t Michigan, the only team that really dominated Penn State on the ground. Its offensive line isn’t nearly as good and Berger isn’t on the level of Blake Corum or Donovan Edwards. And freshman linebacker Abdul Carter has taken a large step forward over the last month and will be able to help against the run.
Still, this is something the team will have to take care of in order to earn the victory. That being said, it’s also something the Nittany Lions can easily handle. They are more talented and more cohesive as a unit than Michigan State’s offense and have an advantage in the trenches against the Spartans. Penn State is highly likely to defeat the Spartans and is highly likely to stifle the Michigan State offense and not allow it to create the kind of gains it will need on the ground.
Kyle J. Andrews: Michigan State’s defense vs. Penn State’s offense
The Spartans are ranked No. 103 in yards allowed per game (417.1) and No. 73 in points allowed per game (26.7). Michigan State allows 180.3 rushing yards per game and 236.8 passing yards per game. The key to winning games is the scoring differential — leading teams by 0.1 in both the passing touchdown and rushing touchdown margins.
That clearly hasn’t shown in the record, as the Spartans are nearly out of contention for bowl eligibility with a 5-6 record. Michigan State started off the year 2-0 and followed up by losing four straight contests to Washington, Minnesota, Maryland and Ohio State. In all four of the games, the Spartans allowed 27 or more points — which is more than their averaged points allowed on the season.
On the other side of the ball, Penn State averages 35.9 points per game, ranking 19th in the Football Bowl Subdivision. The Nittany Lions average 250.4 yards through the air per game and 184.1 yards on the ground. Quarterback Sean Clifford is set to play in his final game at Beaver Stadium and is looking to strike. He has less than 2,500 passing yards this season and less than 20 passing touchdowns — expect it to change on Saturday.
With Parker Washington ailing from an undisclosed injury, Mitchell Tinsley, Brenton Strange, Theo Johnson, Harrison Wallace III and Keandre Lambert-Smith will have to get involved in the passing game. Screen passes, slant routes and shallow crosses will be key for Penn State’s route runners in the game.
And no one should be prepared to have a big day more than the freshman running backs. Nick Singleton has 863 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns on the year. His contemporary, Kaytron Allen, has 748 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns this season. Singleton averages 6.5 yards per carry, Allen averages 5.5.
Pound the rock, open up the play action pass and get into the end zone. That should be the name of Penn State’s game against Michigan State.
