Penn State at Northwestern predictions: How can the Nittany Lions avoid the trap?
Penn State will head on the road for the second time this season to play in the central time zone. The Nittany Lions will take on Northwestern in Evanston, Ill. Here are some final thoughts and predictions ahead of the Nittany Lions’ matchup with the Wildcats.
Avoid the trap
First and foremost, Penn State needs to make sure it doesn’t fall into the same trap Minnesota did last week. The Golden Gophers waltzed into the fourth quarter of their matchup with Northwestern with a 21-point lead and left with a loss. Yes, the Nittany Lions are better than the Gophers, but they are just as susceptible as anyone to sleepwalking through a game. This, of course, is why Penn State head coach James Franklin emphasizes the idea of going 1-0 every week and staying in the moment.
That should not be too much of an issue because Penn State is miles and miles ahead of the Wildcats as a program, but it’s still something the Nittany Lions will have to guard against. The easy way to do that on game day? Make sure the starters play enough reps to put it away early. Yes, I understand that Northwestern came all the way back against Minnesota, but Penn State’s defense isn’t one to give up a lead and its offense isn’t one that will have its foot come off the gas.
There are other goals the team will want to accomplish in Saturday’s game — and we’ll get to those — but it’s far too easy to let a game slip away and in college football that can mean the end of a season. A loss would wash away the team’s goals in an instant and would be a drastic turn for a program that is establishing itself among the best in college football.
Let Allar sling it
One of the schedule quirks that I’ve harped on plenty this year comes into play again this weekend. While, yes, Penn State needs to avoid the trap of losing to Northwestern, it also is staring down a matchup with Ohio State in less than a month. Between now and then is this game, a bye week and a game against a UMass team that Penn State should also walk over. That means part of the goal of the next three weeks has to be to prepare for the Buckeyes and what’s to come in arguably the biggest game the Nittany Lions will have this season.
There will be plenty of areas for them to work on between now and then, but letting Drew Allar go to work as a passer will only improve their chances in that game down the road. Allar has been highly effective as a signal caller, taking what the defense gives him against the Hawkeyes to lead the team to victory. But he’ll have to do more than that to beat Ohio State. There’s a world where that game turns into a track meet and he’s required to be the reason they win.
That means taking chances down the field, even if there is more of a turnover risk if he’s off the mark. The best quarterbacks in the country go out and win games by making plays that others can’t against the best opponents. He’s more than capable of doing that, even though he hasn’t been asked to so far this season. Saturday will be a good opportunity to start building him toward those moments against Ohio State by letting him air the ball out a little bit more against the Wildcats.
Get out healthy
This might seem obvious, but Penn State should prioritize the health of its best players in this one. Getting a big lead early will help, but it would not be a surprise to see players Olumuyiwa Fashanu on a more limited snap count — especially if the Nittany Lions build a big lead. He and the other star veterans don’t need the reps in these types of games to improve and should be able to play at their highest level in the biggest games regardless of how much they play in games against worse opponents.
The other benefit is that players behind those stars will be able to get more time in game action, cultivating more depth that will be able to take meaningful snaps down the road. Maybe a player like King Mack is able to get more reps at safety, or Tony Rojas can do the same at linebacker and those players can use those as a springboard to playing even more. Eventually that will help them when their time comes and could mean that time comes even sooner because they have the necessary experience to contribute.
This, at the end of the day, will likely be more about how Penn State wins rather than if it does. Those types of opportunities don’t always come nearly a month into the season, so the Nittany Lions should try to take advantage of it to cultivate depth and ensure health — after they’ve put themselves in a position to win comfortably.
Final predictions
Penn State 45, Northwestern 10: I don’t think this game is going to be close, but unlike Iowa, Northwestern might score. Might. Penn State’s defense should dominate what is a really bad offense and its offense should be able to score pretty regularly against a defense that is not one of the best in the conference. If the Nittany Lions can hang 31 on Iowa, they should be able to score plenty more against the Wildcats.
MVP: Kaytron Allen. Penn State’s running game hasn’t been great this year, but Allen has been fairly consistent out of the backfield. This could be a breakout game that the team has been waiting for from one of its backs this year, and I’ll say Allen gets the job done by running for 125 yards and two touchdowns in the win.
The last word
Penn State head coach James Franklin on offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich:
“Yeah, first of all, I think Mike has done a great job. I think he’s really built a culture in the offensive staff room where he’s getting really good thoughts and feedback from the entire staff. There’s good discussions. There’s conflict, which I think is always good in terms of if the coordinator brings something up, people can push back. If the assistants can bring something up, the coordinator can push back. It’s not just a bunch of yes men in the room, which I think is also important.”
This story was originally published September 27, 2023 at 11:37 AM.
