Penn State at Ohio State predictions: How can the Nittany Lions knock off the Buckeyes?
Penn State will head on the road for its biggest matchup of the season to date Saturday afternoon. The Nittany Lions will take on Ohio State in Columbus, Ohio. Here are some final thoughts and predictions ahead of the Nittany Lions’ matchup with the Buckeyes.
Bring the heat
This is going to be Penn State’s signature game if the Nittany Lions win, but it may also be Manny Diaz’s signature game for his head coaching candidacy this offseason. This is going to be his first real challenge of the season and he has all of the tools in his toolbox to give his unit a big advantage against the Buckeyes.
The team has three legitimately elite defensive ends in Chop Robinson, Adisa Isaac and Dani Dennis-Sutton, and will be able to rotate them enough to keep all three players fresh throughout the game. That goes without mentioning players like Amin Vanover and Zuriah Fisher who can play when necessary and are still good enough to get the job done.
But this game won’t just be about them. Diaz has plenty of players in the back seven that can bring some added heat to make sure the team gets home by overwhelming the Ohio State pass blockers with numbers. Abdul Carter and Curtis Jacobs have proven their ability to get after the quarterback and Daequan Hardy can do the same from the slot.
The Penn State defense isn’t likely to change its identity for this game, but the good news is that it doesn’t have to. This team relies on pressuring the quarterback and trusting its cornerbacks in coverage. Kalen King and Johnny Dixon will have their hands full with Marvin Harrison Jr. and the rest of the OSU receivers, but they should prove to be up to the task more often than not.
Get the ball in space
Explosive plays have been a focal point of the last few weeks and will likely be after this game too. Penn State will need that aspect of its offense to show up in games like this, even if it’s just a play or two. Right now a lot of the focus seems to be on doing that by sending the ball downfield and giving receivers a shot to win the ball over a defensive back. In actuality, that’s probably not going to be the best way to do it.
Penn State’s best bet is to create space in intermediate range areas and let those players go to work. That means KeAndre Lambert-Smith and Harrison Wallace III getting the ball with room to work, whether that’s on crossing routes or even on plays behind the line of scrimmage. They’re both good enough athletes to open everything up, even if they haven’t so far.
Beyond the receivers, getting running back Nick Singleton the ball in space could help him spring the big gain that he made a consistent part of the offense last year. Giving those players, or some of the team’s other high level athletes, should be paramount this weekend if hunting big plays is a priority. The Ohio State defense should be adept at preventing big plays down the field with their propensity for using five defensive backs, giving Penn State its best shot for big plays by working underneath those players and making them miss in the open field.
Lean on Fatman
The other aspect of the offense that will make or break this matchup is the running game. Kaytron “Fatman” Allen and Nick Singleton have both been effective through six games, but neither has been as elite as they were last season. The running game is a staple of this year’s team, but doesn’t feel like it has the juice it needs against elite teams. That being said, they’ve been good enough to keep the team undefeated and to completely control a game against an Iowa team with one of the best defenses in the country.
The Ohio State defense has been excellent this year and is on the same level as that Hawkeye defense, but has the offense to punish the team if the Nittany Lions don’t sustain drives. That’s why getting Singleton and Allen going will be vital — and right now the latter seems much more trustworthy to do that seems more likely.
Allen has been excellent at quickly finding a hole and grinding out extra yards by taking defenders with him. He’s the more consistent back of the two on a down to down basis and that can go a long way when it comes to ensuring the team doesn’t get behind the sticks. Singleton will still need to have a role, especially because of the threat he poses as a big play weapon, but Allen should lead the backfield in this one.
Final predictions
Penn State 21, Ohio State 17: I don’t think this is going to be a high-scoring game, which means the chances of it coming down to the wire are good. Penn State’s defense is good enough to stifle the Ohio State offense frequently, and I think the Nittany Lions can do just enough on offense to pull out the win in the end.
MVP: Chop Robinson. If that defense is going to be the reason Penn State wins, then Robinson has as good of a chance as any PSU player of having a big day. I’ll say he finishes with two sacks, including one that all but ends the game on Ohio State’s final drive with the ball.
The last word
Penn State head coach James Franklin on what he learned from last year’s games:
“Yeah, I think all of us, right, we’re a combination of our previous experiences. Whether you’re a first-time coordinator in this league or first-time player in this league, I think all those experiences, both positive or adversity, I think if you approach them the right way they help you grow. But we got a ton of respect for Ohio State and their history. And not just now. Like literally from a historical perspective, it’s something kind of looking at what Penn State’s records were, again, all these teams before we even got here. Those things are important to study and understand. But I think last year’s experience was a learning tool for our entire team, for all of our coordinators and all of our coaches. I think this probably goes back to the previous question. I think we played really well for three quarters and didn’t finish. I think that’s a combination of a lot of things. But, yeah, there are opportunities to grow and get better as long as you approach them that way.”
