Penn State at Maryland predictions: Will the offense show signs of improvement?
Penn State will try to build momentum before another big matchup when it plays Maryland Saturday afternoon. The Nittany Lions will take on the Terrapins in College Park, one week before playing Michigan. Here are some final thoughts and predictions ahead of the Nittany Lions’ matchup with the Terps.
Show offensive progress
It’s pretty much now or never for this unit. Penn State could, theoretically, show something against Michigan next week, but I’m going to go ahead and guess the offense won’t suddenly play well against one of the best defenses in the country without any track record of doing so this season. That puts the impetus on doing it this week to give the group something to build off of in the biggest game left on the schedule. I don’t even think the offense has to light up the scoreboard — it just has to look competent and like it is capable of finding ways to score.
What does that look like? The obvious answer is explosive plays. Penn State hasn’t been able to create big plays pretty much all season and finally did so at a crucial time last week against Indiana. Quarterback Drew Allar hit wide receiver KeAndre Lambert-Smith for a 57-yard score that essentially won the Nittany Lions the game and gave the team hope — hope that there was now something to use as a turning point the rest of the way. I’ve said it all week, but that play has to serve as an inflection point. Otherwise this team may not even make a New Year’s Six bowl this season.
Play all of the receivers
All of ‘em. Well, at least most of the scholarship ones.
Penn State has had massive problems at wide receiver this season and there isn’t much reason to expect things will get better with the current group. Lambert-Smith is clearly the best receiver on the roster. Harrison Wallace III is the other reliable option, but he left the Indiana game with an injury and returned to the sideline with a sling on his right arm — plus he was not at practice Wednesday during the portion open to the media. That means somebody else has to step up. Dante Cephas is the obvious choice. After all, he’s been playing more and more of late and has proven he can play at a high level with his track record at Kent State.
But the other options haven’t been great. Malik McClain has struggled with drops. Liam Clifford has been unable to create separation. And those are the only other guys to get major snaps this year. Omari Evans, Kaden Saunders and Cristian Driver have all rarely seen the field on offense this year but that has to change against Maryland. There arrives a point in the season when what is happening on the field isn’t working and that’s the case right now. Maybe Evans, Saunders and Driver will be even worse than the current options — but the team has to take a chance and find out.
Bounce back defensively
This isn’t too big of a concern but it should be a focus on Saturday. The Penn State defense gave up two big plays that resulted in touchdowns — one of which was on a blown coverage. That will draw most people’s attention but the real concern is the two 10+ play drives that ended in a touchdown and a field goal attempt. Sure, they only resulted in seven points, but that Indiana offense is horrible and not one that should be able to put together drives against one of the best defenses in the country.
The good news for Penn State fans is that the defense is highly likely to bounce back. The Nittany Lions made a couple uncharacteristic mistakes on the big plays and simply had a bad game. That happens. I know it’s probably not the analysis everyone wants, but even the best units have bad days sometimes. It’s always good when those things happen and the team still gets a win — like what happened against the Hoosiers. Now defensive coordinator Manny Diaz has to get his unit back on track and get them rolling again Saturday, that way they can be in a good spot heading into next week’s game against Michigan. Not to look ahead too much, but that game has all of the makings of a 10-7 result and one the Nittany Lions will have to be at a high level for.
Final predictions
Penn State 31, Maryland 17: I don’t think this is going to be a coming out party for the Penn State offense, but I do think the unit will end up looking better. More importantly, the defense is still incredible and one of the best in the country despite being below average against Indiana. This will likely be a competitive game, but I think Penn State ends up doing enough to score a fourth quarter touchdown that puts the game at two possessions and all but ices it.
MVP: Kaytron Allen. Some of what the offense needs comes down to the running game, but most of it is in the passing game and that will impact the running backs too. Allen is the team’s best receiving back and should show it if he gets the opportunities. I’ll say he finishes with 15+ touches, including at least three receptions and over 100 combined rushing and receiving yards in this one.
The last word
Penn State head coach James Franklin on the job offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich has done:
“Yeah, again, I think when you take all those factors in, I think there is a lot to evaluate, right? The depth and the consistency at wide receiver. How we’re using our tight ends. The run game and where we’re at, whether they’re explosive runs or not. Where we at from a production in the Big10 in terms of stats, production, whatever it may be. In terms of points, what are we doing from a points perspective? In terms of turnovers, as you know, we talked a ton about-turn overs and explosive plays. One, I think we’re doing very well. We were at one point ranked No. 1 in the country in turnover ratio, which isn’t just an offensive stat. It’s a combination. Even from an offensive perspective I think we’re Top 4 or 5 in the country in offensive turnovers. ... I think you have to factor all these things in. I think for the most part, I feel good. Obviously we’ll dig into all these things after the season. I’m not in the business of mid-season or three quarters of the season getting into evaluations of the staff. I don’t think that’s appropriate. I don’t think that’s the right thing when we’re focused on Maryland this week. Again, when you take all the things into consideration, there are some metrics that we feel really good about and that you guys say nice things about, and there are some metrics that aren’t, that we have to continue to work on.”
