Penn State vs. Purdue: Final thoughts and analysis of PSU’s matchup with the Boilermakers
Penn State will head back on the road this weekend when it takes on the Purdue Boilermakers in a Big Ten matchup. The Nittany Lions will play the game in Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Indiana, in Week 12 of the college football season. Here are some final thoughts, questions and predictions ahead of the Nittany Lions’ matchup with Purdue.
A chance to exhale
This is going to be the kind of game Penn State hasn’t had since nonconference play — one where its opponent is so outmatched that the Nittany Lions can do what they have to do to prepare for the rest of the season. That should include rotating more depth players in, pulling starters when the score gets out of hand and giving anybody with even the slightest injury the chance to rest on Saturday.
This is by far the worst team in the Big Ten. The Boilermakers are the No. 106 team in the country in ESPN analyst Bill Connelly’s SP+, a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency, and all three of its units rank in the triple digits. How many ACC, SEC, Big Ten and Big 12 teams are behind them? None. How many other teams from those conferences are in the 100s in offense, defense and special teams according to SP+? Also none. This team is atrocious, and Penn State should be able to dominate in all three facets
Defense should dominate early
Purdue fired offensive coordinator Graham Harrell in late September, with Jason Simmons, an offensive analyst, originally taking over play-calling duties. But in October, head coach Ryan Walters took over that role. Yes, former defensive coordinator Ryan Walters became the team’s offensive play-caller. The group had a great game against Illinois in his first game making the calls and was able to score 20 against a good Northwestern defense. However, the other two games Walters has called in plays in — against Oregon and Ohio State — resulted in the team scoring a whopping zero points.
Penn State is, obviously, much closer defensively to the Buckeyes and Ducks than the Wildcats and Illini — and should be able to dominate this game early. I would expect the Nittany Lions to win the turnover battle and to shut Purdue out for as long as they have their starters in. Defensive coordinator Tom Allen’s group should have a field day in West Lafayette against the second-worst offense it will face this season — behind only winless Kent State.
Expect to see plenty of freshmen
This is going to be a good starting point for a lot of Penn State’s freshmen who will be preserving their redshirt this year. Head coach James Franklin said there will be more of those players getting added snaps on all three units as the season winds down. That’s because any player who plays in four regular season games or fewer is eligible for a redshirt. With only three games left, the Nittany Lions can now play anyone who has gotten reps in only one game without risking a year of eligibility. That list will grow even larger next week when anyone who has played in two games will be able to go.
Some of those freshmen could have a real impact on the team, and getting reps down the stretch should allow them to see an increased role — if one is warranted — when the College Football Playoff rolls around. No players stand out right now for that more than wide receiver Tyseer Denmark and defensive end Max Granville, who could work their way into backup roles by the end of November.
Final predictions
Penn State 38, Purdue 3: This game won’t be close. Purdue is far and away the worst team in the Big Ten and is coming off a 45-0 defeat at the hands of Ohio State. The Nittany Lions are significantly better in all three facets of the game and should be able to get out of West Lafayette without playing their starters for a full 60 minutes. I imagine this thing will be in hand before halftime and quarterback Drew Allar won’t see many snaps after the game’s first 30 minutes.
MVP: RB Corey Smith. I thought about going with freshman wide receiver Tyseer Denmark here, but odds are the Nittany Lions are going to be running the ball if they’re up as much as I expect them to be. Smith is the obvious candidate to get a bunch of garbage time carries, but could also get even more than that if running back Nick Singleton is limited in any way. I’ll say the freshman running back gets 120 yards and a touchdown on the ground in the blowout.
The last word
Penn State head coach James Franklin on if the team adjusts its practices as the season goes along
“Yeah, we always do. So we start to cut back in terms of the type of equipment we wear at practice. We make modifications there. In terms of the type of drills that we run in practice, typically they go hand in hand with the type of equipment you wear, the amount of reps at practice, the amount of time we have at practice, and then also the amount of full-speed reps compared to jog-through reps. All those things gradually get adjusted over time.
“Nothing dramatic, it’s just gradual reduction. As you know, at the end of the day, you still need the reps to make sure you’re prepared to play the game, but there’s also cumulative effect that builds up over time as well. So we gradually make adjustments. Those adjustments — one of the things I constantly challenge (director of performance science Andrew Nelson) on and (strength and conditioning coach) Chuck (Losey) on is that everybody’s got to make adjustments. So I’ve got to make adjustments with the practice shell. Well, the strength coach needs to make adjustments in the weight room. The coordinators need to make adjustments; the position coaches need to make adjustments. We need to make adjustments with the veteran players who played a ton of football with the high-rep guys from the previous game. All those things factor in. And as the head coach, what I have to make sure is happening is that everybody’s doing that.”
