Penn State vs. Minnesota: Final thoughts & analysis of PSU’s matchup with the Golden Gophers
Penn State will head on the road this weekend when it takes on the Minnesota Golden Gophers in a Big Ten matchup. The Nittany Lions will play the game in Huntington Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota, in Week 13 of the college football season. Here are some final thoughts, questions and predictions ahead of the Nittany Lions’ matchup with the Gophers.
Early lead will matter
This Minnesota team is one that should struggle to come back if the Nittany Lions can take a lead. The Gophers have a below average offense and are facing a defense that is more than capable of shutting them down if they become one-dimensional and are forced to throw the ball. That’s largely because there’s a talent gap across the board that is in Penn State’s favor, with even Minnesota’s best skill position players — running back Darius Taylor and wide receiver Daniel Jackson — being at a deficit against the Nittany Lion defense.
That’s going to put the onus on the PSU offense to earn a big lead and allow the team’s defense to attack. While slow starts had been an issue for the team early in the season, that hasn’t been the case lately. That’s the kind of trend that will have to keep going in Penn State’s direction this week in order to get up early on the Gophers. Of course, it would also help to take the crowd out of the game in what is Minnesota’s biggest home matchup of the season.
Run game at the forefront
Penn State’s best chance of getting that lead will be to take it to the Gophers with their running game. This is going to be a big matchup for both Nittany Lion running backs, with the Minnesota secondary — and overall pass defense — being one of the best the team will face all season. And while the Penn State running game has been very good this season and carried the team early in the year, it has faltered of late, with a good bounce back performance the last two weeks. It helps that the team’s best player, tight end Tyler Warren, is more than capable of taking a direct snap and breaking off a big gain, but the Nittany Lions will need their running backs in this one.
That means Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen will have to have games where their presences are felt by the Gophers. Allen will need some of the tough, physical runs that he’s been capable of throughout his career that can wear down Minnesota, while Singleton will need to break off some of the big gains that he racked up through his first two seasons on campus. The duo hasn’t fully recaptured the magic of 2022 when they both dominated as freshmen, but this could be the start of a big run for the backs down the stretch of the season.
Turnover battle will dictate
The biggest priority for this game has to be turnovers for Penn State — much as it is every week, according to head coach James Franklin. The Gophers are +12 in turnover margin this year, good for eighth in the country, while the Nittany Lions are tied for 46th at +3. The good news for Penn State is that it rarely gives the ball away, with only nine giveaways on the season. But this Minnesota team will be hunting for the ball — especially when it’s in the air. The Gophers have 16 interceptions this season and are led by freshman safety Koi Perich with five of them. He and the rest of the secondary flies after the ball when it’s in the air and will surely do the same when Penn State quarterback Drew Allar passes on Saturday.
The flip side of that for the Nittany Lions is that it could create some explosive play opportunities. Minnesota attacks so much that its secondary could bite on double moves, leaving it exposed over the top for deep shots and giving the PSU offense a chance for big plays. Regardless, the PSU offense will need to protect the ball because the path to an upset for the Gophers is through a big win in the turnover margin — one they will surely be seeking.
Final predictions
Penn State 28, Minnesota 10: This is the game that will determine if Penn State locks itself into a playoff berth. There’s an argument to be made that, because of that, this is the most important game of the season for the Nittany Lions. And I have a hard time seeing them losing it. The Gophers struggle to score for long stretches and I’d expect the 60 minutes of game time Saturday to be one of those stretches. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if they fail to score a touchdown, even if I’m predicting that they manage to get one.
MVP: RB Nick Singleton. Penn State is going to have to run the ball well in this one, and Singleton has started to turn the corner after battling through an injury in the middle of the season. He’s the team’s best weapon at running back and I’d expect him to have his best game of the season against the Gophers. That means setting his season high in rushing yards (currently 119) and rushing touchdowns (currently two) and a season long run (currently 41 yards).
The last word
Penn State head coach James Franklin on tight ends coach Ty Howle and if the job he’s done is discussed enough:
“No, I don’t think it’s talked about enough. There’s no school in the country, there’s no program in the country that is doing what we’re doing with tight ends now and really over the last ten years. Ty Howle has come into that position as a Penn State letterman and I think has taken it to a whole (other) level. We’re recruiting the best tight ends in the country. We’re developing the best tight ends in the country. It’s a competitive room. You’ve got to embrace that. When you just look at what’s happening after they get done playing at Penn State. They’re all getting their degrees, and they’re all getting drafted, and the majority of them are getting drafted very high.
Then you look at the Tyler Warren situation. Tyler Warren had a pretty high draft grade last year, came back, and I think it’s been a win-win. I think he’s going to be the first tight end drafted, is having a great year, is having a ton of fun with his teammates, and that’s what you want, right? You want it to be a great situation for everybody. If you’re a great tight end in the country and specifically in the state of Pennsylvania, I don’t know how you couldn’t come here. Like there’s just too much history, there’s too much data, and there’s too many things saying you don’t need to go anywhere else. You can stay at home and get everything you want in terms of your college career and also setting you up for your future.”
