Penn State football’s non-conference play is over. 5 thoughts before the big tests

Penn State’s 3-0 start to the season wasn’t as compelling as some had hoped, with offensive struggles giving some pause to project this team reaching its ultimate goal and wining the national title.

Let’s take a look at five thoughts following those three non-conference games, and what they mean for the Nittany Lions moving forward.

1. The defense’s ceiling is as high as ever

Let’s start with perhaps the biggest positive to come out of non-conference play for Penn State. Any doubt of the impact defensive coordinator Jim Knowles can have on that side of the ball should be gone. Knowles is arguably the best defensive coordinator in the country and has shown he can take an already elite unit and move it up a few notches. He has the group at No. 3 in the country in Bill Connelly’s SP+, a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if that rose up to No. 1 soon enough. Yes, the opponents have not been good, but Knowles has continued to show his mastery of the gameday aspects of defense — making adjustments and his overall play-calling — that should allow the Nittany Lions to continue to be elite against Oregon, which has one of the best offenses in college football. And if I had to guess, this is not the unit that will leave some wanting more in the biggest games this season.

2. The wide receivers have given reason for hope

Penn State head coach James Franklin said Tuesday evening that the transfer wide receivers have met his preseason expectations, with the occasional flash above and below. While he did not say this, I will — that is an important improvement over last season. The team lacked starting caliber receivers at all three spots this year and now it has them. That does not mean the Nittany Lions have a true No. 1 option — though I’m not ruling out one eventually emerging — but it does mean they have a level of competence that’s necessary to win a national title. Devonte Ross, Kyron Hudson and Trebor Peña have brought consistency to the position, even if none of the three are elite. It would not be a surprise to see another young player (like Tyseer Denmark or Koby Howard) emerge and earn more reps to add even more depth to a room that had none last year.

3. Penn State’s offense is more questionable than anticipated

While the receivers have been better than last year’s group, that’s pretty much the end of the praise for the Nittany Lion offense. There have been major inconsistencies on that side of the ball to begin the year, to the point that I wonder what it will look like against Oregon and Ohio State. There’s a world where everything that’s happened over the last two weeks is merely a blip on the radar and everybody forgets what happened against FIU and Villanova. There’s also a world where everyone who is raising red flags is proven right. It’s hard to say when the struggles are so unique and the opponents are so bad that the issues don’t matter in the moment. That being said, Drew Allar needs to be an efficient quarterback in this offense, and Nick Singleton needs to hit on a big run or two to help the team be more explosive. If those two things click, then nothing I — or anyone else — hemmed and hawed over will matter.

4. The Nittany Lions can still beat Oregon and Ohio State...

All of that about the offense leads me here. Nothing that happened during non-conference play should make anyone think Penn State has no chance against the Ducks or Buckeyes. The Nittany Lions remain one of the most talented teams in the country, with one of the best offensive coordinators and one of the best defensive coordinators in the country. That is a recipe for success, no matter how ugly the process is to get there. And I know, it was ugly at times. The miscues from Allar are unacceptable at this point in his career, but they’re also not the norm for him. We will have many more answers after Sept. 27 than we do now and I think there’s a more than realistic chance that when that game ends, everybody has taken a deep breath and is talking about a 4-0 Penn State team.

5. ...but I’m less confident that they will

That being said, I felt a lot better about my prediction that this team would win the Big Ten and make the national title game two weeks ago than I do now. Because maybe those issues are real. Again, it remains impossible to say when the team is playing three schools that it steamrolled despite not playing at its absolute best. And it’s much better to have that type of performance against FIU than Oregon, but there’s no guarantee that it won’t happen against the Ducks too — and if it does then there will be much bigger conversations to have. Because through three games, Oregon looks like a juggernaut. They obliterated Oklahoma State 69-3 before beating Northwestern in a matchup that was 34-0 before the Wildcats scored 14 points with the game out of hand. This is not a team that you can make mistakes against and get away with them, especially if they’re playing at this level. And entering this season I thought this would be a clash of the titans, with two of the best in college football going at it — which it still probably will be. I’m just a little bit more hesitant to declare it that until we see which Penn State team shows up for the White Out.

Jon Sauber

Centre Daily Times

(814) 231-6461

Jon Sauber covers Penn State football and men’s basketball for the Centre Daily Times. He earned his B.A. in digital and print journalism from Penn State and his M.A. in sports journalism from IUPUI. His previous stops include jobs at The Indianapolis Star, the NCAA, and Rivals.