Penn State football roundtable: How will 2025 finish and will Grunkemeyer prove himself?
Penn State has undergone two massive changes in the last week, with James Franklin getting fired as head coach and Drew Allar suffering a season-ending injury.
Now, with interim head coach Terry Smith and redshirt freshman quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer, the Nittany Lions will try and salvage the rest of the 2025 season and find out who is ready to be a major piece of the 2026 team.
Let’s take a look at how this year will finish and what comes next.
What record will Penn State finish with?
Jon Sauber: 5-7
I don’t think this team is going to make a bowl game, and it has more to do with Drew Allar suffering a season-ending injury than James Franklin getting fired. Allar was up and down this season, but he is also far and away the team’s best quarterback and the Nittany Lions are heading into a stretch that is brutal.
They’re heading to Kinnick Stadium Saturday to take on Iowa, then have a bye before back-to-back matchups with Ohio State and Indiana. That’s a nightmarish first three starts for redshirt freshman quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer. This weekend is going to be his best shot of pulling off a win, but even if he does that, the team’s season finale against Rutgers isn’t a guaranteed win. Right now, the game against Michigan State in the middle of November is the only one I’m willing to say Penn State will for sure get. One there and splitting Iowa and Rutgers will get this team to five wins.
Josh Moyer: 5-7
If QB Drew Allar didn’t suffer a season-ending injury, I would’ve projected at least another two wins. I’m more concerned about the Nittany Lions’ situation at quarterback right now than I am about the absence of James Franklin. (Franklin isn’t even my second-biggest concern. That would be whether this team will still be motivated to play after a historically disappointing start.) Allar underachieved this season, but Penn State fans are kidding themselves if they think he wasn’t the Nittany Lions’ best option. I’m reminded of QB Sean Clifford during the 2021 season. Not everyone loved Clifford but, when he went down in the second quarter against Iowa, the wheels fell off. A 17-3 PSU lead turned into a 23-20 loss — and a hobbled Clifford struggled when he returned the next week. To me, Penn State’s hopes at a bowl — any bowl — hinge on the arm and legs of QB Ethan Grunkemeyer. And I don’t think that outlook is a very positive one.
Bret Pallotto: 4-8 Saddled with three consecutive losses and upcoming games against Iowa, Ohio State and Indiana, it’s possible Penn State loses six straight for the first time since 2004. And with three more conference games after that, the Nittany Lions as constructed may be on their way to the program’s worst conference record since they joined the Big Ten. If that’s not shocking enough, consider their final two home games are against Indiana and Nebraska. Maybe they go winless at home in conference play and their only victories this year at Beaver Stadium are against Nevada, FIU and Villanova.
Will the Nittany Lions upset Indiana or Ohio State?
Sauber: No.
There’s a better chance Penn State beats Indiana than Ohio State (strictly because that game is at home) but it would also be very on-brand if the Nittany Lions knocked off the Buckeyes in the one year when the win does nothing for the team.
That being said, this defense has been in shambles in recent weeks, and the offense struggled to move the ball against Northwestern with its starting quarterback. Grunkemeyer will have a chance to prove himself, but it’s hard to envision that side of the ball being any better — which means Indiana and Ohio State’s defenses should feast against Penn State. Odds are, both of those teams will win by double digits.
Moyer: No.
Teams can improve; teams can evolve. (See: 2016 Penn State) But this team has still given us no reason to believe it can take those strides this season. It followed one disappointment with another and then another. How do you see Penn State losing to the Big Ten’s worst and think, “Gee, I think this team is primed to turn it around against the Big Ten’s best”? After watching UCLA upset the Nittany Lions, anything is possible. But Penn State beating Indiana or Ohio State is very, very unlikely.
Pallotto: No.
Ohio State and Indiana are two of the top four favorites to win the national championship, while Penn State is largely just playing for pride. Stranger things have happened in college football, but it’s difficult to pick an upset here.
Will Ethan Grunkemeyer do enough to be the starting quarterback in 2026?
Sauber: No.
I have been saying this since prior to the season, and therefore prior to Franklin’s firing — the Nittany Lions will go to the transfer portal to find their 2026 starting quarterback. Franklin’s departure only increases those odds, barring Grunkemeyer lighting the world on fire in his six starts to end the year.
And even if he does that, there’s a chance he goes into the portal with the coaching staff change. Odds are whoever becomes the head coach will either bring a quarterback with them, or go find one that is a perfect fit in the transfer portal. This is a roster that is going to be in flux over the next three months and the quarterback position isn’t exempt from that.
Moyer: No.
Boy, it’s hard to make this determination since he has just 13 career pass attempts to his name — and we don’t yet know who the next head coach is. But next year’s starting QB will either be Grunkemeyer or a signal-caller from the transfer portal. Will Matt Rhule be hired as the next head coach, and could QB Dylan Raiola follow? If that’s a yes, then Grunkemeyer is a no. Regardless, the next coach will likely want a quarterback who fits his system and, at this point, we don’t know if that’s Grunkemeyer. If I was a Magic 8 ball, I’d tell you to “Ask again later.” But, for now, I’m saying no.
Pallotto: No.
And it has less to do with Grunkemeyer than it does coaching turnover. If Pat Kraft opts for an external hire, a new regime may prefer to bring in “their guy.” Quarterback likely wouldn’t be the only position, either.
