Penn State vs. Ohio State: Can the Nittany Lions somehow pull off the upset?
AI-generated summary reviewed by our newsroom.
- Penn State used bye week to install offensive wrinkles and adjust personnel.
- Backup QB Grunkemeyer must create explosive plays or Penn State will stall.
- With interim coach and four-game skid, odds favor Ohio State to dominate.
Penn State plays its first game since the bye week this Saturday. The Nittany Lions will play the Ohio State Buckeyes in Week 10 of the college football season in the program’s fifth Big Ten game of the year. Here are some final thoughts and predictions ahead of the matchup.
What changes does the bye week bring?
The viewing window of Penn State’s bye week featured just the defense because the offense was inside Holuba Hall for an installation period. Which begs the question — what were the Nittany Lions installing? There are few better times to add something on either side of the ball than the bye week, and it seems Penn State was taking advantage of that. That’ll be important this week because the offense could be down to just two healthy quarterbacks in starter Ethan Grunkemeyer and true freshman Bekkem Kritza after Jaxon Smolik suffered an injury against Iowa. Adding wrinkles to the offense will be important for a team that is likely going to struggle on that side of the ball the rest of the way.
The other changes that could come this week are more personnel related. Wide receivers Koby Howard and Tyseer Denmark already saw more reps against Iowa than they had in other games this season, and that should continue against the Buckeyes. There will be others who could get more time, too. Interior offensive lineman Cooper Cousins is getting healthier and should see added reps, and same with every linebacker currently behind Amare Campbell and Dom DeLuca. There will inevitably be changes now that interim head coach Terry Smith has had a full bye week to assess the team.
How does Grunkemeyer handle his second start?
Added wrinkles will help the offense, but if Penn State has any chance on Saturday, Grunkemeyer has to be significantly better. The Nittany Lion passing game was subpar against Iowa — for several reasons — but one of them was that the redshirt freshman quarterback did not play well. Given the context, he was fine. He was making his first career start in a hostile environment against a very good defense. But the context is stripped away when it comes to determining who wins the game. And he has to play beyond his experience for Penn State to get there.
That will entail him making plays that Drew Allar was capable of making, creating explosive plays with throws that he may not otherwise attempt. But that is what it will take against the Buckeyes. If the defense ends up picking him off or making him pay, he will at least be able to say he went down swinging. But if this offense is taking all the easy throws and not taking any risk, it will fade into a loss by a few scores in a game where it never threatens Ohio State.
Can this team do the unlikely?
This was supposed to be the biggest game of the college football season. It was supposed to be No. 1 vs. No. 2. And that was still possible a month ago, even after Penn State lost to Oregon. But then the entire season unraveled, the Nittany Lions fired head coach James Franklin and now goes into the matchup on a four-game losing streak. This program already struggles enough against Ohio State, but coming into the game as three-touchdown underdogs with a backup quarterback and an interim head coach? Good luck.
It would almost be fitting for Penn State to knock off the Buckeyes this weekend — in a year when that win would do little more than increase the Nittany Lions’ chances of making a bowl game. But crazier things have happened. The ingredients are there for an upset. A team with nothing to lose has a chance to knock off one of the best teams in the country. That’s the kind of thing that happens every so often in college football — like when winless UCLA did it to Penn State in early October. But this Penn State team doesn’t have the offense UCLA did. And these Buckeyes aren’t those Nittany Lions. Everything on Saturday is pointing to a blowout win for Ohio State.
Final predictions
Ohio State 34, Penn State 10: There’s a chance this game is close early, but Penn State has given little reason to believe it can stay close with a team as good as Ohio State. The defense should be up to the task, but the offense has been disappointing all season and took an even bigger step back once Drew Allar suffered a season-ending injury. The Buckeyes should be able to take what I think will be a one-score game at halftime and run away with it in the second half because Penn State can’t score.
MVP: Ohio State WR Carnell Tate. Plenty of the attention will be on Jeremiah Smith at receiver, but Tate has been elite this season, too. There’s a pretty good chance both end up making big plays, but Tate gets the nod here because he might draw less attention than he deserves from the Penn State defense. I’ll say he finishes with eight catches for 143 yards and two touchdowns in the game.
The last word
Penn State interim head coach Terry Smith on going from being a position coach to interim head coach:
“Yeah, it’s a little bit different. You know, I was always Coach T as cornerbacks coach in my role prior. I got along with everyone. Everyone saw me as Coach T, the OG coach. I’m one of the oldest coaches on staff. Now they see me in a different light. Like, the building sees me different. It’s kind of like everyone gets quiet when I walk in now. So it’s just different. But it’s positive in the sense of I’m still Coach T. I’m the guy that still gets along with everyone. It’s my job to rally us together. I want to give the players a voice to how this story ends and how do we write this next chapter. So it’s always about those guys.
“So I told the staff, you know, there was a video that Urban Meyer was talking about one of his former coaches is now the interim head coach at Florida. The video basically said that we have however many opportunities, games left in the season. We have to put it on film. If we want our next jobs as coaches, we have to coach so that the film shows we’re deserving of our next job. I showed that to our staff and we owe it to these guys to pour into them and give everything we can. So we’re going to work our tails off. It’s my job to make sure that staff doesn’t come up short. We’re going to demand excellence, as we always have here. You know, I promised that when we went to Iowa we were going to play hard. I’m going to double down on that when we go up here to Ohio State. Effort will never be an issue for any team that I coach. This week we’re going to try to figure out how to give that maximum effort with victory.”
This story was originally published October 29, 2025 at 1:44 PM.
