Penn State vs. Indiana: Will the Nittany Lions knock off the Hoosiers?
Penn State plays its first home game Saturday since James Franklin was fired. The Nittany Lions will play the Indiana Hoosiers in Week 11 of the college football season in the program’s sixth Big Ten game of the year. Here are some final thoughts and predictions ahead of the matchup.
Will the passing game change?
Interim head coach Terry Smith has said for a couple weeks now that the team’s passing attack is too horizontal and needs to be more vertical. And on Monday at his weekly press conference, he was adamant that the change would happen against Indiana. That will have to be the case if the Nittany Lions want to have a chance against the Hoosiers, but it can’t be the only change to the passing game. Yes, additional deep shots will help, but the offense needs more explosion in general and that could come from personnel adjustments.
And for this group, that means playing freshman Koby Howard and redshirt freshman Tyseer Denmark more than they have to this point in the season. Each has seen additional snaps since Smith took over for Franklin, but still their opportunities to make plays were scarce against Iowa and Ohio State. You’d think an offense that has stagnated would try to do something different in order to spark an explosive play or two, but to this point it has been more of the same for the unit. And if this isn’t the week for Howard, Denmark and an increased vertical passing threat — when the Nittany Lions can upset the No. 2 team in the country in Beaver Stadium — then there’s little reason to believe it will change at any point the rest of the season.
Does the pass defense stand a chance?
Ohio State wide receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate torched Penn State over the top last week and the task won’t get any easier for the secondary this week against Indiana. IU wide receivers Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr. are elite at beating opponents deep and Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza might be the best quarterback in the country. Penn State will have to focus on not allowing those types of big plays if it wants any chance of earning the upset on Saturday.
That means the team’s corners are going to have to play much better than they did against OSU, but it also means the pass rush is going to have to be more productive than it has been of late. The team’s two projected stars — defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton and defensive tackle Zane Durant — have not been as productive at getting after opposing quarterbacks as expected, and it’s made the rest of the defense fall apart. Opposing quarterbacks have too much time to operate without pressure, which puts stress on the coverage and requires them to stay with their man for an unreasonable amount of time. If that doesn’t change, the entire defense will once again be in for a long day.
When does the playing time shift to youth?
This is the biggest long-term question for this weekend and the rest of the year. This is going to go down as a lost season, and at some point the team needs to try and get something out of it, even if it means being slightly less competitive the rest of November (which isn’t even a guarantee if changes are made). The best way to do that is by playing more young players and not deferring to veterans just because they’re more experienced.
This is especially true at wide receiver, where Howard and Denmark are talented enough to both be helpful this year. Those two players should see more playing time, especially with someone like Kyron Hudson not producing at a high level on the outside. The same is true at linebacker and right tackle, but those positions have already seen the shift, with Alex Tatsch getting increased reps at linebacker and Anthony Donkoh kicking back out to right tackle. There will inevitably be other opportunities at other positions for young players to get additional reps, and it would make sense if Penn State started to lean into those chances as the season winds down.
Final predictions
Indiana 45, Penn State 13: The Nittany Lions lost by 24 last week to Ohio State and I have to think that margin will be even wider this Saturday. Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti isn’t one to take his foot off the gas, and this has a chance to be a very lopsided game. It’s hard to see PSU stopping the Indiana offense and it’s even harder to see it scoring against the Hoosiers’ defense. Things will get worse before they get better for Penn State, and that includes this week.
MVP: Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza. For a second week in a row Penn State will face a signal caller with Heisman Trophy aspirations. Last week, Julian Sayin torched the Nittany Lions and this week, Mendoza is likely to do the same. This could be one of his signature moments if he can have an even bigger performance than Sayin did for Ohio State when he threw for 316 yards and four passing touchdowns. I’ll say Mendoza goes slightly bigger with 337 yards and four passing touchdowns.
The last word
Penn State interim head coach Terry Smith on wide receiver Koby Howard and the challenge of playing young players:
“The challenge with any young player, especially freshmen, is learning the system completely. We have tons of plays with a ton of different options off each particular play, so a lot of times with young receivers they may run routes short or they are not quite where they’re supposed to be where the quarterback wants them. So a lot of times the coach doesn’t have confidence to put them in because they may make that mental error. What Koby does best is he competes. This guy loves football. He got in this week, got in last week against Iowa. I think his two catches might be the two longest catches we had in both those games. We got to get him an opportunity to get out there and shine. That’s my job, and Koby is going to be on the field on Saturday.”
