NFL Draft Roundtable: Where we think Drew Allar should — and will — land on draft night
Former Penn State quarterback Drew Allar is set to hear his name called in Pittsburgh next week during the 2026 NFL Draft after a four-year career in the blue and white. His time at PSU saw him make a College Football Playoff semifinal, while also struggling to meet the massive expectations that came with him being a five-star recruit who was expected to lead the program to a national title.
Will he be better in the NFL? Where should he get picked? Where will he get picked?
Four of our reporters share their opinions — which sometimes differ wildly — below.
Will Allar have a better NFL career than college career?
Jon Sauber: Yes.
I go back and forth on this. And I was going to say maybe, but I wanted to spare myself from getting yelled at by my co-workers for fence-sitting. Allar’s NFL career, like many others’, will be dictated by his landing spot. He’s in need of a situation where he will have a chance to sit and learn behind an established quarterback while also having a coach who can reconfigure his footwork. Because, while he’s a very good processor who sees the game very well, he’s not great at acting on what he sees effectively because his lower half gets out of whack.
Fortunately for him, there are multiple situations that can develop him in the NFL — the Steelers and the Rams come to mind — and he’ll need to land in one in order to make this a yes and not a no.
Josh Moyer: No.
Allar finished his Penn State career with 29 starts — and, frankly, I don’t think he comes close to approaching that many in the NFL. He also leaves Happy Valley by ranking among the top 5 in virtually every school passing category, from passing yards (7,402; fourth) to passing TDs (61; third). So, by that metric, would he need to make an NFL team’s Ring of Honor to surpass his college career? I’m not trying to split hairs here. I’m just saying that, despite a disappointing finish to his NCAA career, the odds are against him when it comes to his NFL career being any better. Allar undoubtedly has potential — but so did former second-rounder Christian Hackenberg. For every strong-armed project who turns into Josh Allen, there’s a handful that wind up in the disposal bin with the likes of Kyle Boller, Cardale Jones and Will Levis. Few Penn State fans would label Allar as “clutch,” and I think his penchant to shrink in big moments isn’t going to carry over well to the next level.
Bret Pallotto: No.
His footwork, decision-making and poise under pressure give me enough pause that I can’t foresee a professional career that’s more successful than his time in the blue and white. It will be interesting to see how he’s remembered in Happy Valley. His name is nearly everywhere in the top three of the program’s all-time passing records, but his late-game turnovers are hard to forget.
Sean Regenye: Yes.
Absolutely. Allar’s college career was defined by a pair of game-ending interceptions and disappointing performances in big games, such as Notre Dame in the 2025 CFP. However, it wasn’t hard to see that Allar did not fit the system implemented at Penn State, which favors a more mobile, play-making quarterback. The Ohio native is a 6-foot-five, 6’28-pound gunslinger, but Andy Kotelnicki used him as if he were built like Beau Pribula. Allar will thrive in a pro-system focused on play-action. His traditional pocket-passing frame and projection are similar to Josh Allen, who came into the league with a lot of problems to figure out, including decision-making, much like Allar.
When do you think he should get picked?
Sauber: Third round.
This is as much about upside and positional value as anything else. There is a world where Allar never starts a game in the NFL and is unable to put it together. But if he hits, he has a chance to hit big. That’s the kind of player teams should take a chance on, especially if they have an environment in place that will help him succeed. The idea of getting a quarterback with that high of upside should always push players up the board and Allar is no different.
Moyer: Early Day 3
Allar is a gamble, pure and simple. But, even as someone who’s not optimistic about his chances at the next level, I have to concede that he’s absolutely worth a late-round flyer. He’s got a low floor and a high ceiling, which creates a lot of value in the later rounds. His physical tools are among the best with this weak crop of QB prospects and, even if there’s a 14% chance he develops into a competent starter, isn’t that worth a fourth-round pick or later?
Pallotto: Fourth round
Some head coaches and offensive coordinators will certainly believe their system can address the flaws in Allar’s game. At this point in the draft, teams are largely looking for valuable backups or developmental prospects.
Regenye: Fourth round
Allar is currently ranked as the fifth-best quarterback on ESPN, behind the likes of Fernando Mendoza, Ty Simpson, Garrett Nussmeier and Carson Beck — and there is a considerable fall-off after Mendoza into Simpson, and Nussmeier into Beck and Allar. However, I think Allar’s ceiling is higher than Beck’s, and with that said, the former Penn Stater is likely to go in the fourth round, ahead of Beck. There aren’t many teams in need of quarterbacks, and of them, only two will find a solution in the draft. However, a lot of teams could use better depth at the position, and taking a flyer on a guy like Allar in the fourth round has more upside than not.
When do you think he will get picked?
Sauber: Minnesota Vikings, Round 3, Pick 97 overall
The ideal situation for Allar is the Rams, but Minnesota wouldn’t be a bad one. Head coach Kevin O’Connell has helped resuscitate the careers of talented quarterbacks — Sam Darnold’s resurgence finished in Seattle but began with the Vikings — and could mold Allar into a starter. He wouldn’t be pressured to start with Kyler Murray in place, but would have a chance to compete for the job eventually if all goes well.
Moyer: Los Angeles Rams, Round 3, Pick 93 overall Allar is 6-foot-5 and 228 pounds, and he can launch the ball more than 60 yards. That explanation alone is enough for some NFL general managers to take a chance on him. The Rams have often been connected to Allar for two primary reasons: He fits their vertical offense well, and the Rams are able to stash-and-develop him since they have a veteran QB. (I don’t think any front office believes Allar is NFL-ready right now.) It only takes one team to fall in love with Allar and, given this class’s weak crop, I’d be surprised if he wasn’t taken before Day 3. If the Rams pass on Allar this early in the draft, keep an eye out for the Pittsburgh Steelers at No. 99.
Pallotto: Atlanta Falcons, Round 4, pick 122 overall
The team appears headed for a quarterback competition with new coach Kevin Stefanski at the helm. But would the Falcons really bring in a quarterback coming off a broken ankle to battle with Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr.? Time will tell.
Regenye: Pittsburgh Steelers, Round 4, Pick 121 overall It almost makes too much sense. The best in PA, stay in PA, right? The Steelers are in a weird quarterback situation. Mark Kaboly, a Steelers correspondent, believes Aaron Rodgers will re-sign. Rodgers, turning 43 this December, is nearing the empty on his gas tank, physically, but mentally, he has over 20 seasons of NFL knowledge to pass down. And for a player like Drew Allar, who has displayed his talent — from time to time — he could use a mentor like Rodgers. Regardless of how the Rodgers deal plays out, the Steelers aim to retool rather than rebuild. Using a fourth-round pick on Allar is a harmless shot to secure a long-term quarterback option for the team.
