The NHL Draft is in June. But Gavin McKenna should know his home by next week
The 2026 NHL Draft isn’t scheduled until the end of June. But, in all likelihood, Penn State superstar Gavin McKenna will know his NHL landing spot by Tuesday.
After all, the draft order will officially be determined Tuesday via a live lottery on ESPN — and McKenna is the consensus No. 1 overall pick.
Multiple mock drafts, including those from NHL.com and EliteProspects.com, have chosen McKenna to go in the top spot with international star Ivar Stenberg slated to go No. 2. It’s a two-horse race for the No. 1 overall spot, but sportsbook BetMGM has McKenna as the odds-on favorite — at an implied probability of 77.8%. (For you sports bettors, that’s a line of -350.)
We won’t know with complete certainty where McKenna is headed until the night of the NHL Draft on June 26. But, by Tuesday night, we’ll know where he’s likely going — whatever team picks first — and we’ll almost certainly have it narrowed down to two teams, as no respectable mock draft has McKenna falling below No. 2.
Eleven teams are in the running for the No. 1 overall pick, as NHL rules don’t allow teams to move up more than 10 spots from their places in the pre-lottery standings. Here are the odds of each team landing the No. 1 overall pick and having a shot at McKenna:
Vancouver Canucks
2025-26 record: 25-49-8 (Wins-Losses-OT Losses)
Odds at top pick: 25.5%
A recent anonymous survey by The Athletic found that nearly 1 in 3 NHL agents — 7 of 22, to be exact — named the Canucks as the worst-run franchise in the sport. “They’re a mess,” one agent told the outlet. It’s not hard to see why. Sure, the Canucks finished with the worst record in the league. But they’ve also drawn heavy criticism for trying to silence voices in the media, and the general manager was fired earlier in April. There’s some young talent on this team, but it remains to be seen how quickly they can turn this franchise around.
Chicago Blackhawks
2025-26 record: 29-39-14
Odds at top pick: 13.5%
With a lot of young talent and a healthy amount of cap space, a top pick — and a prospect like McKenna — could push Chicago into either competitive or postseason territory next season. There are still a lot of gaps on this team, from defense to goaltending to depth, but having McKenna to pair with Connor Bedard would be must-see hockey.
New York Rangers
2025-26 record: 34-39-9
Odds at top pick: 11.5%
The Rangers are facing an awkward transition, as their aging core means they must retool. And GM Chris Drury wrote in January, in an open letter to fans, that “may mean saying goodbye to players that have brought us and our fans great moments over the years.” (Goodbye, Artemi Panarin!) Drury said the franchise would focus on speed and youth, meaning McKenna would be just what the GM ordered. But there will be some growing pains until this franchise finds its footing.
Calgary Flames
2025-26 record: 34-39-9
Odds at top pick: 9.5%
Calgary is just a three-hour drive from where McKenna played three seasons of junior hockey in Medicine Hat, Alberta. And one Calgary radio host said he knows for a fact McKenna “wants to be a Calgary Flame.” The organization is set to open a new $1.2 billion arena, Scotia Place, in 2027 — so adding a new face of the franchise would be a definite plus.
Toronto Maple Leafs
2025-26 record: 32-36-14
Odds at top pick: 8.5%
As one of the NHL’s Original Six teams, Toronto boasts one of the largest fan bases in the sport. But this past season marked the first time in nine years it failed to make the postseason. Work must be done this offseason to build around Auston Matthews and William Nylander but, with a new GM, there’s reason to expect the team should improve. This would be a fine landing spot for McKenna.
Seattle Kraken
2025-26 record: 34-37-11
Odds at top pick: 7.5%
The NHL’s newest expansion team, which began play in 2021, has a beautiful arena and plenty of resources. But it sure could use a superstar to market around. There’s a good, mostly young core here — but no prospects with a ceiling anywhere close to McKenna. The Kraken have already hired three head coaches in their short tenure, and they face a critical offseason after having won just 34, 35 and 34 games in the last three seasons.
Winnipeg Jets
2025-26 record: 35-35-12
Odds at top pick: 6.5%
With one of the NHL’s best goaltenders in Connor Hellebuyck, the Jets might just be one more playmaker away from the postseason. They already boast two great forwards, in Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor, so adding McKenna could make a lot of Canadians in Calgary and Vancouver very unhappy. Winnipeg isn’t the largest market, as it has the smallest arena in the NHL. (Capacity: 15,321)
Florida Panthers
2025-26 record: 40-38-4
Odds at top pick: 6.0%
Nothing else would likely tick off hockey fans as much as the Panthers winning the lottery. Florida won back-to-back Stanley Cups in 2024 and 2025, and it was poised to compete again this season — until several key injuries and lackluster goaltending kept it just outside the postseason. Adding McKenna would all but ensure the Panthers are competing for hardware again next year.
San Jose Sharks
2025-26 record: 39-35-8
Odds at top pick: 5.0%
With 19-year-old superstar Macklin Celebrini, the No. 1 overall pick of 2024, the Sharks are on their way up. They nearly made the playoffs this season despite low preseason expectations, and adding another teenage superstar in McKenna could give the Sharks an elite top line for more than a decade. This would be the NBA equivalent of drafting Victor Wembanyama one season and getting the chance to draft Cooper Flagg two seasons later. Other NHL teams have to be rooting against this scenario.
Nashville Predators
2025-26 record: 38-34-10
Odds at top pick: 3.5%
Nashville has an interesting dynamic. There’s obvious talent on this team — it boasts one of the NHL’s top-5 prospect pools — but a lot of its top players are still in the twilight of their careers. In other words, if the franchise wants its good times to last, it’ll have to lean into its young core and retool in 2026-27, when it has more cap flexibility.
St. Louis Blues
2025-26 record: 37-33-12
Odds at top pick: 3.0%
The Athletic ranked Blues owner Tom Stillman as the No. 5 owner in the NHL last year, offering the highest marks for his treatment of the fan base. St. Louis has a mix of young and veteran talent right now, and adding McKenna would definitely be a step forward in retooling the right way — and giving fans more value for their money.
