How will Penn State wrestlers fare in NCAA Championships? Here’s our predictions.

For the first time in three years, Penn State comes into the NCAA Championships as the Big Ten champs.

The Nittany Lions set a new program record for points in the conference championships (157.5) with six finalists. The question now is, can Penn State have that same success at the national championships?

We took a stab at how we think each of the nine Nittany Lions wrestlers will fare in Pittsburgh as the NCAA Championships get underway on Thursday. Here’s what we’re thinking:

133 Pounds: Roman Bravo-Young (No. 10 seed)

Cobler’s predicted finish: 6th

Cobler’s outlook: This is, by far, the hardest and deepest weight class in the country. Bravo-Young enters his first NCAA Championships after finishing fifth at the Big Tens. He’s going to have to be ready to go right away. In last year’s NCAA Championships, the Nittany Lions saw their first two wrestlers get put on their backs and pinned. I don’t see that happening this year. Bravo-Young should reach the second round with no problems and will face Iowa’s Austin DeSanto, who kicked the freshman into the 133-pound Big Ten consolations two weeks ago. DeSanto dominated the first two periods of that matchup, but I think RBY learned from that match. He was equally dominant in the third period. I look for him to get past DeSanto this time and meet Michigan’s Stevan Micic, who is the No. 2 seed. It is rumored that Micic has a torn ACL. If that is the case, it is very possible that Bravo-Young reaches the semifinals. I think he still loses in the quarterfinals, wins one more in the consolations and drops his final two matches to finish sixth.

Muthler’s predicted finish: DNP

Muthler’s outlook: Bravo-Young told reporters Monday that, although he thinks he held back a bit at Big Tens, he’s no longer afraid to lose. That’s the kind of attitude Bravo-Young is going to need if he wants to place as a true freshman in one of the toughest weight classes in the nation. RBY has shown his potential this season, but his tiebreaker win over then-No. 6 Luke Pletcher during the dual against the Buckeyes in Columbus still remains his lone top-10 win. After seeing the takedown clinic Iowa’s DeSanto put on RBY at Big Tens, I have the Nittany Lion falling in the quarterfinals. I then have RBY getting revenge on Purdue’s Ben Thornton in wrestlebacks to make it to the consolation quarterfinals against fellow freshman Micky Phillippi. This is certainly a winnable match for RBY, but right now, it’s Phillippi who has the more proven resume. I pick RBY to fall just short of All-America status in his true freshman campaign.

141 Pounds: Nick Lee (No. 3 seed)

Cobler’s predicted finish: 2nd

Cobler’s outlook: Lee was one of the first two Penn State wrestlers to get pinned in the 2018 NCAA Championships. On Monday when speaking to the media, Lee said he is much more at ease entering this year’s tournament. His draw to reach the finals is one of multiple rematches with other wrestlers that have beaten him either this year or last year. In the second round, he could get Wisconsin’s Tristan Moran, who edged Lee in overtime in the January dual. In the quarterfinals, Lee could get Illionis’ Mikey Carr, who beat Lee in the Big Ten semifinals last season. I see Lee getting past both those rounds and facing Ohio State’s Joey McKenna for a third time this year in the semifinals. I look for Lee to sneak by McKenna again to avenge the loss in this year’s Big Ten semifinals but ultimately falls to Cornell’s Yianni Diakomihalis.

Muthler’s predicted finish: 2nd

Muthler’s outlook: Although Lee is only one of three Penn State qualifiers not to be seeded in the top two, he is certainly a finalist contender. To his advantage, Lee locked up the No. 3 seed, opposite of McKenna, which has proven to be a winnable match for the Nittany Lion. The Buckeye leads the series between the two 2-1, with a late-in-the-period takedown being the difference in both of McKenna’s wins. Each of the pair’s three bouts have been decided by just one point. Lee has proven throughout his career that taking losses just makes him a better wrestler, as he makes adjustments. For that reason, I’m actually encouraged by his Big Ten loss to McKenna. Also, when two wrestlers are as closely matched as McKenna and Lee when it comes to the NCAA Wrestling Championships, it’s always a safe bet to go with Penn State. I pick Lee’s motor to outlast McKenna’s again in the third period, and for the sophomore to get a late takedown of his own to set up a national championship bout with Diakomihalis, who will win for the second straight year. If Lee loses to McKenna, however, I have him taking fourth to Missouri’s Jaydin Eierman, who proved to be a tough matchup for Lee last year.

149 Pounds: Brady Berge (No. 12 seed)

Cobler’s predicted finish: DNP

Cobler’s predicted finish: Everyone knew coming into this season that whoever took over for Zain Retherford had some big shoes to fill. As much as Penn State has dominated this weight class the last three seasons, I don’t see the Nittany Lions getting an All-American this year. Berge has a tough draw, and that’s expected when you are the 12th seed. I look for him to get kicked into the consolations Thursday night after he falls to Princeton’s Matthew Kolodzik, who is the No. 5 seed and finished third last year. I look for Berge to wrestle his way back to the consolation quarterfinals, where he will more than likely face either Oklahoma State’s Kaden Gfeller or Ohio State’s Micah Jordan. If I had to guess, it will be Gfeller as Jordan has just been solid all year. I see Gfeller rebounding from a close loss to Jordan and topping Berge, meaning Berge comes up one win shy of becoming an All-American.

Muthler’s predicted finish: 7th

Muthler’s outlook: Without Retherford, 149 pounds is actually one of the more interesting weight classes this year at NCAAs. Aside from the three seniors at the top of the bracket, most of the field consists of a lot of young talent and guys with pretty similar resumes looking to separate themselves from the rest this weekend. Penn State’s Berge is included in that mix. Despite splitting time with teammate Jarod Verkleeren this season, Berge has recorded some solid wins, including over No. 7 Jarrett Degan, No. 9 Pat Lugo, No. 11 Josh Maruca and No. 17 Jared Prince. I have Berge losing a close one to Princeton’s Kolodzik in the quarterfinals, then battling through the consolation round where he’ll beat the Tiger when they meet again on the backside to finish seventh in his NCAA tournament debut.

157 Pounds: Jason Nolf (No. 1 seed)

Cobler’s predicted finish: Champion

Cobler’s outlook: I’m not going to spend a whole lot of time on this one. No one has come close to touching Nolf this year. In fact, Nolf’s two closest matches were six-point wins over Nebraska’s Tyler Berger and Michigan’s Alec Pantaleo. Only three of Nolf’s 26 victories this season have come without bonus points. I look for Nolf to bonus his way to the semifinals. I look for him to major his way to his third and final NCAA crown, taking out Pantaleo in the semifinals and Berger in the finals.

Muthler’s predicted finish: Champion

Muthler’s outlook: When writing predictions for Nolf, the question isn’t so much if he’ll win but how he’ll do it. What “secret moves” has he been saving until the end? (Will he finally hit that backflip he’s been teasing?) Will he score enough bonus points to close the gap with teammate Bo Nickal for the NCAA’s Most Dominant Wrestler award and in the Hodge Trophy race? Will he finish out his college career without giving up another takedown? As he’s proven himself to be on a level above the rest of his opponents this season, look for the two-time national champ to put up a lot of points as he finishes up his storied collegiate career just an hour away from his hometown. One wrestler who could stop Nolf’s bonus-train is Michigan’s Pantaleo, who held Nolf to regular decisions in both their matchups this season. The two are set to meet in the semifinals, before a likely rematch with Nebraska’s Berger. Nolf got mad when Berger got a takedown in their dual matchup and repaid him with a major decision in the Big Ten finals. If we’ve learned anything this season — it’s to not make Penn State’s all-time pins leader mad. Look for him to win big in his final collegiate bout Saturday night.

165 Pounds: Vincenzo Joseph (No. 2 seed)

Cobler’s predicted finish: Champion

Cobler’s outlook: Joseph is treating this year’s NCAA Championships just like any other, even if it is in his hometown. One thing he did say, though, is his cheering section will be way bigger then previous championships. One item that has been consistent as all the other championships? Joseph comes in after finishing second in the Big Ten Championships. He mentioned he uses that as motivation and how he’s been able to win the past two 165-pound national titles. I don’t see how he doesn’t make the finals again this season in an attempt to become the fourth Penn State wrestler with three NCAA crowns. The question is, does he take on Iowa’s Alex Marinelli, who beat him in the Big Ten finals, or is it someone else? Marinelli probably has the toughest draw of any No. 1 seed in the country. I look for a Big Ten finals rematch for the national title, but Marinelli is just too worn down, and Joseph avenges the Big Ten loss. The win puts Joseph on track to become the first four-time NCAA winner in Penn State’s history.

Muthler’s predicted finish: 2nd

Muthler’s outlook: After Joseph came back from Big Tens for the third consecutive year without an individual championship trophy, his coach, Cael Sanderson, said it best: “I think he’s OK with being at his best at the nationals. And I think that’s kind of the plan, and his plan.” Losing Big Tens has never stopped Joseph from winning nationals before and, in his home city, he’ll be fulfilling a childhood dream of wrestling at PPG Paints Arena. Joseph’s path to the finals is much easier than that of No. 1 Marinelli. However, should Marinelli remain undefeated and make it to the finals, it’s hard to not pick the Hawkeye after his 9-3 drubbing of Joseph in the Big Ten finals. Marinelli seemed to be dominating in every position throughout the match. I’ve never picked Joseph to win NCAAs, and he’s won every year. So I wouldn’t be surprised if he does it again. However, picking Joseph would give me five Penn State champs (as you’ll see later), which has only been done four times in history. (Yes, I know, once was by Penn State). I’m sticking with Marinelli to unseat the two-time national champ, just like Joseph himself did two years ago.

174 Pounds: Mark Hall (No. 1 seed)

Cobler’s predicted finish: Champion

Cobler’s outlook: Look for Hall to be on cruise control to the semifinals. As I mentioned before the Big Ten Championships, the stop in Minneapolis was just a minor detour on Hall’s way to the 174-pound NCAA finals. Hall should follow a similar path as Nolf to the semifinals. Hall bonuses his way there and takes on another Wolverines wrestler in Myles Amine. It will be the third time this pair faces off this year. I see the result being the same — a one-point Hall victory. College wrestling fans will hope to see another Hall-Zahid Valencia final, but Valencia hasn’t wrestled the greatest this year. Penn State fans saw Hall dominate Valencia inside Rec Hall, and nearly six weeks later Valencia was pinned by Missouri’s Daniel Lewis, who is the No. 2 seed in the weight class. I look for Lewis to ruin the fun for wrestling fans, and Hall ruins Lewis’ run in the championships.

Muthler’s predicted finish: Champion

Muthler’s outlook: Ahead of Penn State’s dual with Arizona State, Joseph uttered wise words about his teammate when he said, “I don’t doubt Mark, never will.” And with the way Hall has been wrestling and his confidence level for the past couple weeks, doubting him seems unwise. Hall told reporters at Big Tens, and then again on Monday, that he feels like he’s wrestling at his best. When Hall’s at his best, it’s tough to bet against him. I have Hall winning each match with considerable ease until yet another one-point victory over Michigan’s Amine in the semifinals. I also have Valencia getting revenge on Lewis in the semis, to set up another rematch with Hall in what is quickly becoming one of the best rivalries in college wrestling history. With the way Hall dominated Valencia in the third period of their last matchup, and with the improvements he made over the offseason, I have Hall winning his second national title.

184 Pounds: Shakur Rasheed (No. 2 seed)

Cobler’s predicted finish: 3rd

Cobler’s outlook: As much as Penn State fans would want to see Rasheed take on Ohio State’s Myles Martin in the finals and make it five straight finalists, I don’t see it happening. Look, Rasheed is a great wrestler, but with the knee brace on, it hinders him a little bit. Rasheed came up one point shy of reaching the semifinals last season at 197 pounds. I think the same thing happens this year to the exact same team in North Carolina State. Last year, it was Michael Macchiavello; this year it is Nick Reenan. Reenan made it to the finals in the Final X series this summer, where he took on David Taylor inside Rec Hall. If Rasheed was 100 percent healthy, I’d put him in the finals with no problems, but the brace just scares me.

Muthler’s predicted finish: 3rd

Muthler’s outlook: As the No. 2 seed, Rasheed has a pretty good draw to to get into the finals. However, the bulky knee brace does give me pause. As evidenced by the way he lost steam, after getting the first takedown against Michigan’s Jelani Embree during the February dual, and then giving up the late takedown against Nebraska’s Taylor Venz at Big Tens, the injury may have affected Rasheed’s gas tank. So long as he keeps cradling up guys early, that shouldn’t be a problem. Once he starts facing guy who aren’t as easy to pin, however, he could run into some challenges. I have Rasheed making it to the semifinals, where he drops a close one to Latrobe native Zach Zavatsky, of Virginia Tech, then beating Illinois’ Emery Parker for third.

197 Pounds: Bo Nickal (No. 1 seed)

Cobler’s predicted finish: Champion

Cobler’s outlook: Nickal has the toughest draw of all of the six Penn State wrestlers that were seeded in the top two of their weight classes. He has seven wrestlers in his half of the bracket that have 20-plus victories. There are just six wrestlers that have double-digit losses in that same side of the bracket. If Nickal has a shot of separating himself from Nolf in the Hodge Trophy race, it’s going to come in his run to the 197-pound finals. If he bonuses his way, I’d have to think Nickal is the slight favorite to win the Hodge after claiming his third NCAA title. As for his finals opponent, I see it being one of three guys in either Oklahoma State’s Preston Weigel (No. 3 seed), Iowa State’s Willie Mikilus (No. 6 seed) or Ohio State’s Kollin Moore (No. 2 seed). It doesn’t matter who comes out of the bottom half of the bracket; they aren’t beating Nickal.

Muthler’s predicted finish: Champion

Muthler’s outlook: Nickal told the media on Monday that he’s a little surprised at how fast the season went. With more than half his matches finishing before the midway point of the second period, it’s easy to see how it might seem that way. Like Nolf, Nickal has so far separated himself from the rest of his weight class this year. Nickal enters NCAAs with a slight edge over Nolf — averaging 0.9 team points more per bout — in the Most Dominant Wrestler rankings, one of the key criteria used to determine the Hodge Trophy winner. Although neither wrestler said he’s too concerned about what awards they may or may not get when the season wraps, wrestling fans will all be watching to see which makes the stronger Hodge case this weekend. Nickal should be able to get through to the finals with considerable ease — and likely add a few pins to his total in the first few sessions. My pick to come out of the other side of the bracket is Oklahoma State’s Weigel, whom Nickal should beat in convincing fashion for his third and final NCAA title.

285 pounds: Anthony Cassar (No. 2 seed)

Cobler’s predicted finish: Champion

Cobler’s outlook: The New Jersey kid never qualified for his state tournament until he was a senior in high school. Guess what? He won it that year too. It’s amazing to see how his college career is turning out just like his high school career. Here again, Cassar is in what could be his final season in a Nittany Lions’ singlet. He qualified for the NCAA Championships for the first time and I think he finishes off his college career just like his high school career. He has given himself the nickname of “The Champ” and that’s what he told the Big Ten crowd in Minneapolis two weeks ago. He’ll say the same thing to the national crowd in Pittsburgh on Saturday night. Cassar will get past Minnesota’s Gable Steveson for the second time in two three weeks, handing the freshman phenom his second collegiate loss. In the finals, Cassar puts his signature blast double on display for the entire country to see on ESPN to avenge a loss to Oklahoma State’s Derek White in the Southern Scuffle finals at the start of 2019. Cassar’s win gives the Nittany Lions five champs again for the second time in program history.

Muthler’s predicted finish: Champion

Muthler’s outlook: When the NCAA seeds came out and Cassar was given the 2, between White and Steveson, I penciled the Big Ten champ in for third place. However, after leaving the Lorenzo Wrestling Complex on Monday, having spoken with both Cassar and Sanderson, I have since changed my pick. Cassar is brimming with confidence, and that confidence boils over to Sanderson when talking about his “solid” heavyweight. The senior is dialed in and focused, and having waited five long years for this opportunity, is going to make the most of it — just like he did with his one shot at states in high school, with his one shot to take out the No. 1 in last year’s dual with Ohio State, and with his one shot at Big Tens less than two weeks ago. I’m well aware of Steveson’s resume and the way White shut down Cassar’s offense at the Southern Scuffle. However, Cassar is an anomaly, a special kind of wrestler with a unique story who hopefully fans of the sport get to see for another year. Book some beach time for “The Champ.”

Follow Muthler and Cobler on Twitter for weekend long updates from the NCAA Championships

This story was originally published March 20, 2019 at 4:53 PM.