Breaking down each bout of Friday’s No. 1 Iowa vs. No. 2 Penn State wrestling match
While the NFL’s bests will face off in Super Bowl LIV on Sunday, wrestling fans will have their own “Super Bowl” Friday night when the No. 2 Nittany Lions travel to Carver-Hawkeye Arena to test their luck against the top-ranked Hawkeyes.
The Nittany Lions have dominated college wrestling for nearly the past decade. Now, Iowa is looking to take back that top spot.
Will Penn State be able to shock the wrestling world and pull off the upset? Here’s our bout by bout breakdown and predictions:
125 pounds: Brandon Meredith (11-8) vs. No. 1 Spencer Lee (10-0)
This breakdown will be quick — just like most of Lee’s matches this year. In 10 bouts so far this season, only one — a 16-5 major decision — has gone the distance.
The two-time national champion junior out of Pennsylvania’s Franklin Regional High School has hardly broken a sweat this season, ending half those bouts in the first period.
Penn State’s Meredith, on the other hand, is a walk-on who pushed previous starter Brody Teske for a spot in the starting lineup, then took over after Teske’s transfer at the beginning of the new year.
The biggest question in this match is will it be 5 or 6 points for Lee? Lee has been more inclined to go for the technical fall, with seven so far. However, Lee is certainly capable of going for the pin, and has done so twice this season, both coming in less than a minute.
The Hawkeye could very well be looking to make a statement early against the Nittany Lions.
Cobler’s prediction: Lee by fall
Muthler’s prediction: Lee by technical fall
133 pounds: No. 3 Roman Bravo-Young (12-0) vs. No. 2 Austin DeSanto (12-1)
This is the toughest weight class in the country with no doubt.
The Big Ten has the top-three ranked wrestlers in the country with Bravo-Young, DeSanto and Wisconsin’s Seth Gross (No.1). It’s quite possible had Rutgers’ Nick Suriano wrestled this season instead of taking an Olympic redshirt, the Big Ten could have had the top four or top five, with Northwestern’s Sebastian Rivera now No. 5 in the country, according to InterMat.
RBY and DeSanto have squared off twice. Both times came in the postseason last year. DeSanto has beaten the sophomore both times, too.
The first time came in the Big Ten Championships with DeSanto earning a 12-8 decision. The other was a 7-2 decision in the NCAA Championships two weeks later.
Both times it seemed as though DeSanto just outpaced the speedy RBY. It will be interesting to see if RBY has been able to close that gap, not just on the scoreboard but also the pace.
Cobler’s prediction: DeSanto by decision
Muthler’s prediction: DeSanto by decision
141 pounds: No. 2 Nick Lee (12-0) vs. Carter Happel (6-4)
If Penn State is able to get a couple upsets and put itself in a position to win, it’ll also have to match the bonus points nearly assured by Spencer Lee at 125 pounds.
The Nittany Lions’ best chance to do that will be with their own Lee — Nick — at 141 pounds.
Usual Iowa starter Max Murin is not expected to wrestle Friday, according to coach Tom Brands at his weekly press conference, and it will instead be the backup junior Happel. Even with Murin, 141 was the most likely win for Penn State Friday night. And now without him, it seems bonus points are a definite possibility for Lee, who has scored bonus in all but one bout this season.
Lee is proficient on offense, leading his team in dual takedowns with 46 this season, and likes to break guys down from the top position. Even the roar of the Carver-Hawkeye crowd will likely not be enough to slow Lee down.
Cobler’s prediction: Lee by major decision
Muthler’s prediction: Lee by tech fall
149 pounds: Jarod Verkleeren (12-3) or Luke Gardner (6-1) vs. No. 3 Pat Lugo (13-1)
It seems as though Verkleeren has locked up the starting spot at this weight class. Gardner hasn’t seen the dual lineup since Penn on Dec. 8.
Just a few weeks ago, however, coach Cael Sanderson said that nothing is officially set in stone. But since Verkleeren has been in the lineup since December and it’s only about a month and a half until the postseason, it appears he’s got it locked down.
When comparing Lugo and Verkleeren, they don’t have stellar records against common opponents. Lugo’s record is at least a winning mark of 9-6 compared to Verkleeren’s 5-8. The most recent opponent they’ve faced was Nebraska’s Collin Purinton, who Lugo beat 4-1. Purinton pinned Verkleeren last Friday in the dual.
Lugo might just be happy that he isn’t facing Brady Berge, who he lost to in the Big Ten Championships last year.
Cobler’s prediction: Lugo by decision
Muthler’s prediction: Lugo by decision
157 pounds: Bo Pipher (8-9) vs. No. 5 Kaleb Young (11-2)
When asked at his weekly media availability Tuesday, Sanderson said he didn’t expect any lineup changes from last week’s dual against Nebraska, meaning it’ll likely be junior Pipher who takes on Young Friday, not Berge.
Pipher has so far been able to keep the score close against tough opponents like No. 1 Ryan Deakin (6-0) and No.. 11 Peyton Robb (5-3), but hasn’t yet put himself in a position to actually win any of those matches.
While Sanderson has reiterated his belief throughout the season that Pipher can beat a big opponent like Young, he hasn’t yet, and it’ll be tough to do so at Carver-Hawkeye.
Young has wrestled a lot of close matches so far this season, including a 6-4 decision over common opponent Robb. But his ability to finish should give him the clear edge over the Nittany Lion.
Cobler’s prediction: Young by decision
Muthler’s prediction: Young by decision
165 pounds: No. 1 Vincenzo Joseph (7-0) vs. No. 2 Alex Marinelli (14-0)
This matchup is a shot at redemption for Joseph, who still has yet to beat Marinelli.
The pair has squared off twice so far, the latest occurring in the 165-pound Big Ten finals, a 9-3 rout for Marinelli.
History is certainly on the Hawkeye’s side, not only has he never lost to two-time national champion Joseph, he’s also never lost at Carver-Hawkeye or in the regular season. But Joseph appears more focused than ever in his senior season, after ending his collegiate season with a loss for the first time last year.
It’s Joseph who has the more dominant win over the pair’s most recent common opponent, 5-1 over Nebraska’s Isaiah White. Marinelli beat the Husker 4-3.
This match is shaping up to be one of the most exciting of the evening, but there are some questions about whether both will make the call. It has become more common in college wrestling for wrestlers not to compete in high-profile matches for postseason seeding purposes. Hopefully that’s not the case Friday night, as many fans will be sitting at the edges of their seats for this one.
Cobler’s prediction: Joseph by decision
Muthler’s prediction: Joseph by decision
174 pounds: No. 1 Mark Hall (15-0) vs. No. 2 Michael Kemerer (8-0)
While the first of the Nos. 1-vs.-2 matchups Friday night features two opponents who’ve become familiar with one another, the second is more of a mystery.
Hall and Kemerer have never matched up, as Hall said Kemerer had always been a lot smaller than him, competing at 149 pounds his redshirt year and 157 the next two years, before missing all of last season with injury.
The most recent common opponent between the two is Nebraska’s Mikey Labriola, who Hall pinned last week and Kemerer beat 3-1 the week prior. The two also both have wins over Indiana’s Jacob Covaciu this season, Hall’s a 14-2 major decision and Kemerer’s a 9-6 decision.
Kemerer, another Franklin Regional product, is a dangerous wrestler with a high-scoring mentality. But to defeat 2017 national champion Hall, he’ll have to take him down, a feat that’s only happened twice so far this season.
Cobler’s prediction: Hall by decision
Muthler’s prediction: Hall by major decision
184 pounds: No. 9 Aaron Brooks (7-1) vs. No. 6 Abe Assad (19-3)
This is match wasn’t supposed to happen this year, as each wrestler started the season out in redshirt. But now that it’s happening, a lot is riding on the matchup between highly touted freshmen.
Brooks is coming off his first loss of his career, 9-5 to Nebraska’s Taylor Venz, who Assad beat 6-4 the week prior. He’ll also be wrestling in Carver-Hawkeye for the first time, which as his teammate Hall knows, isn’t the easiest place for a freshman recently out of redshirt to wrestle.
Assad was on a tear with his redshirt on. He continued that when it came off on Jan. 10 against Indiana. In fact, he hasn’t lost since his redshirt came off. His last loss came to Northern Iowa’s Taylor Lujan, who is No. 4 nationally according to InterMat, at the Midlands Championships.
While Assad has the momentum heading into this matchup, this is certainly one that Penn State fans should circle if they’re looking for the team upset.
Cobler’s prediction: Assad by decision
Muthler’s prediction: Assad by decision
197 pounds: No. 18 Shakur Rasheed (2-2) vs. No. 7 Jacob Warner (11-2)
The 197-pound matchup is one of the more interesting of Friday night’s dual.
A Rasheed at full health, strength and confidence would have a real shot here against the Hawkeye. However, after missing the first half of the season recovering from ACL surgery, bumping up a weight then going 2-2 in his return to the mat, it doesn’t appear Rasheed is there yet.
The pair both recently suffered a loss to a common opponent in Nebraska’s Eric Schultz. The Cornhusker defeated Warner 3-1 at Carver, then beat Rasheed by the same score a week later.
Sanderson has said the coaches are being patient with Rasheed, and the plan is to have him at his peak by the postseason in March. But if Rasheed is able to find a bit of what has made him so dangerous in the past — his top game and ability to tilt guys with a cross-face cradle, it could have a major impact on the outcome of the dual.
Cobler’s prediction: Warner by decision
Muthler’s prediction: Warner by decision
285 pounds: No. 15 Seth Nevills (10-0) vs. No. 3 Tony Cassioppi (13-0)
What a way to finish this dual off, if it begins at 125 pounds. It’s not often a matchup of undefeated heavyweights lines up.
Nevills has been nothing but clutch since his redshirt got removed to start the second half of the season. He has come through for the Nittany Lions twice in his young collegiate career, and looked aggressive against each of his opponents.
If it wasn’t for Nevills, Penn State might have three losses on the year after Nevills’ wins over Illinois and Nebraska handed the Nittany Lions wins.
Cassioppi stepped in the lineup this season after redshirting last year. He has been an excellent replacement for Sam Stoll, who graduated last year. Some might even say Cassioppi is better than Stoll, due to his athleticism.
If Nevills can wrestle a tough match against Cassioppi, even in a loss, he can send a message that he’s an all-American contender.
Cobler’s prediction: Cassioppi by decision
Muthler’s prediction: Cassioppi by decision
Final
Cobler’s outlook: There is just too much fire power in the Hawkeyes’ lineup that Penn State has to overcome. The swing match will be at 133 pounds. If the dual starts at 125 pounds, Lee is more than likely getting a fall. If RBY can win or hold DeSanto to a decision, the Nittany Lions may have a shot. However, if DeSanto scores more bonus points behind Lee, PSU could be in trouble early. Final score predicition: Iowa 24-10
Muthler’s outlook: As the underdog and without a dual streak to preserve, Penn State should be going into this match without the usual burden of high expectations. If the Nittany Lions go into this dual with that mindset and are able to let loose, look for more statement wins from Lee, Joseph and Hall, and maybe even an upset or two. However, it appears that just too much will have to go right for the Nittany Lions to pull off the dual victory. Final score prediction: 23-12
This story was originally published January 30, 2020 at 6:03 PM.
