Here’s a bout-by-bout breakdown of No. 2 Penn State wrestling’s match vs. No. 6 Ohio State
Penn State senior wrestlers Vincenzo Joseph, Mark Hall and Shakur Rasheed are set to compete in their final Big Ten dual meet at 7:30 p.m. Saturday as the No. 2 Nittany Lions host No. 6 Ohio State at the Bryce Jordan Center.
Between them, the two teams boast a total of 14 InterMat-ranked wrestlers: four No. 1s and the potential for as many as six matchups between ranked wrestlers — including Ohio State’s No. 1 Luke Pletcher vs. Penn State’s No. 2 Nick Lee at 141 pounds.
On paper, it looks as if the dual could come down to bonus points, making the 141-pound bout even more important.
Here’s our bout-by-bout breakdown and predictions for the BTN-televised matchup:
125: PSU’s Brandon Meredith (12-11) vs. Malik Heinselman (14-13) or Dylan Koontz (12-9)
With Penn State and Ohio State each favored in four bouts, and unraked matchups at 125 and 157 pounds, redshirt freshman Brandon Meredith has the chance to set the tone for Penn State early, should the dual start at 125 pounds.
Whether he faces former highly touted recruit Malik Heinselman or Dylan Koontz, who wrestled last weekend for the Buckeyes, it should be a competitive matchup.
Meredith earned his marquee win of the season on Dec. 8 at Rec Hall, an 8-5 decision over Penn’s then-No. 10 Michael Colaiocco. But since then, he’s struggled to add to the win column, despite several close matches.
His coach, Cael Sanderson, knows the opportunity is there for him this weekend.
“I think Brandon’s getting better, he just makes little mistakes that he can fix with some experience,” Sanderson told host Jeff Byers on Wednesday’s edition of the Penn State Coaches Show. “But he does some really nice things. He attacks with his left hand, which is generally an advantage for a wrestler. He’s got to get off the bottom a little bit ... but he’s right there, and we know he’s going to give a great effort.”
Koontz is coming off a 3-2 loss to Northwestern’s No. 11 Michael D’Augustino, whom Meredith also lost to on Jan. 12 by a score of 7-3.
Muthler: Heinselman or Koontz by decision
Moyer: Heinselman or Koontz by decision
133: PSU’s No. 2 Roman Bravo-Young (15-1) vs. Jordan Decatur (11-7)
Only the most optimistic Ohio State fan or the most clueless underdog lover is giving Jordan Decatur a chance in this one. After all, the wrestlers’ resumes and mindsets couldn’t be more different.
Roman Bravo-Young is as confident as he’s ever been, despite suffering his first loss of the season last weekend — against Wisconsin’s No. 1 Seth Gross, 6-5. RBY’s reactionary style, where he moves his feet and looks to entertain, is hard to prepare against. And Decatur hasn’t had a lot of luck against talented, and more predictable, competition.
RBY is 3-1 against ranked opponents; Decatur is 0-5. The Buckeyes’ wrestler has allowed bonus points in two of those matches, a 15-6 major decision against Gross and a 27-12 tech fall against Iowa’s Austin DeSanto. And RBY loves to put on a show.
“I think a lot of people have been entertained by me the last few weeks,” Bravo-Young said matter-of-factly. “So I just have to keep doing what I do.”
As long as he does, expect RBY to deliver plenty of points. The only question is how long Decatur will be able to keep up, and whether he’ll allow bonus points.
Muthler: Bravo-Young by major decision
Moyer: Bravo-Young by tech fall
141: PSU’s No. 2 Nick Lee (16-0) vs. No. 1 Luke Pletcher (23-0)
Nick Lee has been on a tear all season long and is coming off a weekend where he major’d the seventh-ranked wrestler in the country and pinned No. 4 in the first period.
His 4.88 average team points per match are second only to Arizona State’s Zahid Valencia’s 4.89, according to the NCAA’s Most Dominant Wrestler rankings, released Wednesday. He’s also sixth in the country in technical falls with seven.
At this point, it doesn’t look as if anyone can stop Lee — except maybe Luke Pletcher.
In his bump up from 133 pounds last year, Pletcher has undergone one of the most impressive transformations in recent wrestling history, going from a defensive wrestler known for low-scoring bouts to pouring it on opponents this season, with numbers nearly as impressive as Lee’s.
This bout has become one of the most anticipated of the season, with not only major implications for the dual, but also for Big Ten and NCAA seeding. While this match feels like it could go in either direction, one thing seems certain — a lot of points will be scored.
“I’d hope it’s a high-scoring match,” Lee said on The Coaches Show. “I’m glad we could bring high-level matches like that to our fans here at the BJC. It’s going to be pretty cool.”
Muthler: Lee by decision
Moyer: Pletcher by decision
149: PSU’s No. 17 Jarod Verkleeren (14-5) vs. No. 1 Sammy Sasso (21-2)
In Jarod Verkleeren’s three years of wrestling for Penn State, he’s never allowed a major decision or a tech fall. That makes his bout with Sasso all the more intriguing.
The two squared off in May 2018, in the World Team Trials Challenge for the United World Wrestling Juniors, and Sasso cradled him for the pin in the first bout. But when the two met again? Verkleeren ended up coming away with the tech fall victory.
Verkleeren has been pinned just twice in his 51 career college matches, so every conceivable result is on the table for this bout. Sasso is the better scrambler, and he’s proven before he has the potential to cradle Verkleeren, but Penn State’s even-keeled wrestler has repeatedly hung tough against elite competition.
Just this past weekend, Verkleeren lost to No. 7 Brayton Lee of Minnesota in sudden victory but edged out No. 19 Cole Martin of Wisconsin. Sasso has consistently been a force, which is why he’s currently ranked No. 1, and he’s notched bonus points in seven of his last 11 bouts.
This is a crucial bout for both teams. A Verkleeren upset would completely turn this match on its head, while Sasso bonus points could give the Buckeyes the needed edge. This is a bout that shouldn’t be missed.
Muthler: Sasso by decision
Moyer: Sasso by decision
157: PSU’s Bo Pipher (9-11) vs. Quinn Kinner (14-5) or Elijah Cleary (13-10)
Bo Pipher is coming off his first bonus-point loss of the season, a 14-3 major decision to Wisconsin’s Garrett Model. He then didn’t wrestle the next match against Minnesota, as Luke Gardner bumped a weight to take on Ryan Thomas.
This weight class has been a weakness for Penn State and Ohio State this season, as both teams are looking to find consistency.
Pipher has been holding down 157 pounds for most of the season, as Brady Berge continues to recover from a preseason head injury. Ohio State has also gone back and forth at this weight class, rotating between redshirt junior Elijah Cleary and redshirt freshman Quinn Kinner.
While there’s plenty of uncertainty surrounding this bout — including who might step out on the mat — it still has the potential to be a crucial swing match.
Muthler: Kinner or Cleary by decision
Moyer: Kinner or Cleary by decision
165: PSU’s No. 1 Vincenzo Joseph (11-0) vs. No. 16 Ethan Smith (15-10)
As of Thursday, it’s been 1,187 days since Joseph last lost to a wrestler ranked outside the top 10.
Smith is ranked No. 16. Do we really need to say more?
Joseph is the favorite to win the national title at 165 pounds, and he’s a strong contender for the Hodge Trophy. He boasts no weaknesses, and he’s racked up bonus points in six of his last eight bouts.
There might not be a heavier favorite Saturday than Joseph. Smith is clearly talented — he slipped past No. 8 David McFadden of Virginia Tech in November — but he’s also lost five bouts this season to the other wrestlers ranked in the top 5.
Joseph is elite; Smith is good. They’re simply operating at different levels, and Smith hasn’t shown he can compete. Saturday definitely has the potential to be lopsided.
Muthler: Joseph by major decision
Moyer: Joseph by fall
174: PSU’s No. 2 Mark Hall (18-1) vs. No. 7 Kaleb Romero (15-4)
Last year at the Bryce Jordan Center, Mark Hall used a late takedown to seal a thrilling 3-2 victory over Michigan’s No. 3 Myles Amine, celebrating with a flex and a bicep kiss.
This match shouldn’t be as exciting, as Hall should have more of a comfortable edge over redshirt sophomore Kaleb Romero. However, the four-time Ohio high school champion, who has wins this season over the likes of Arizona State’s No. 9 Anthony Valencia and Minnesota’s No. 8 Devin Skatzka, won’t make things easy.
Up at his more natural weight after wrestling 165 pounds his redshirt freshman year, Romero has been gaining confidence as the season has progressed. But it likely won’t be enough to match the edge in experience of the 2017 national champion and three-time NCAA finalist, Hall.
Since suffering his first loss of the season against Iowa on Jan. 31, Hall has looked completely dialed in, even cutting out the celebrations after his next two wins — both first-period pins.
If the dual does shake out 5-5, this could be a crucial opportunity for bonus points for Penn State.
Muthler: Hall by major decision
Moyer: Hall by decision
184: PSU’s No. 6 Aaron Brooks (10-1) vs. No. 12 Rocky Jordan (25-6)
With two weeks left in the regular season, Penn State’s Aaron Brooks looks to be in a good spot to earn the No. 1 seed at 184 pounds going into Big Tens.
A win Saturday over fellow freshman Rocky Jordan would certainly help his case.
While Jordan took a few tough losses, such as to Virginia Tech’s unranked Cody Hughes and Minnesota’s unranked Owen Webster, he’s won three straight — including a 3-2 decision over Nebraska’s Taylor Venz, who handed Brooks his lone loss of the season.
Speaking to reporters Tuesday, Brooks said he’s also been making improvements as the season’s progressed and is continuing to work toward reaching his “best self.”
“I’m still getting there,” he said. “Each match (I’m) just adding new things to my style, wrestling hard, wrestling smarter. I’m still not at my peak, but I’m getting there.”
Brooks and Jordan are part of a sizable group of up-and-coming Big Ten 184’ers, and Saturday’s matchup could offer a glimpse into what the future of the weight class might look like in the conference.
Muthler: Brooks by decision
Moyer: Brooks by decision
197: No. 17 PSU’s Shakur Rasheed (4-3) vs. No. 1 Kollin Moore (23-0)
Kollin Moore hasn’t had the greatest track record with Nittany Lions.
He was upset by backup Anthony Cassar at Rec Hall in 2018, in a crucial bout that ultimately gave Penn State the 19-18 win.
Then he was pinned in the dual the next year by Bo Nickal, who beat the Buckeye three times that season, including in the Big Ten and national championships.
However, he’s had better luck with Shakur Rasheed, whom he beat 8-4 at Big Tens and 7-4 at NCAAs in 2018.
This year, the 197-pound title seems to be Moore’s to lose. He’s undefeated on the season and ranks seventh in the country in dominance, averaging 4.27 team points per match.
Rasheed, on the other hand, is still struggling to get back to his peak form after preseason ACL surgery. However, he did show signs of life over the past weekend, firing off more penetrating shots on offense and being able to ride out on top.
While this should be one of the matches Ohio State is most heavily favored in, Rasheed remains a dangerous wrestler who has the capability of throwing in a cross-face cradle at any moment.
Muthler: Moore by major decision
Moyer: Moore by major decision
285: PSU’s No. 15 Seth Nevills (12-2) vs. Gary Traub (19-6)
If Saturday’s match does come down to the heavyweights, the Nittany Lions should feel pretty confident.
Seth Nevills has been in that situation before — three times in January his bout decided the team winner — and he went 2-1 in those. He beat No. 16 Christian Lance of Nebraska and Illinois’ Luke Luffman while losing to Iowa No. 3 Anthony Cassioppi. Nevills is aggressive for a heavyweight, and his issue at times was just finishing off takedowns against stronger wrestlers like Cassioppi and Minnesota’s Gable Steveson.
That really shouldn’t be a problem against Gary Traub, better known as “Gas Tank Gary,” a gritty Buckeye folk hero and walk-on who out-lasted Stanford’s David Showunmi in November by riding him out in a 4-3 decision. That mindset has continued with Traub, who doesn’t take anything for granted.
Traub won’t shy away from Nevills, but it’s clear the Penn State freshman has the edge on the mat. Traub is 4-5 since the new year, losing all four of his ranked bouts. Nevills is 12-2 on the season, with one ranked win.
This is a match that could come down to bonus points, so Nevills might be forced to do some catch-and-release Saturday night. Either way, both wrestlers have fast become fan favorites — and both could add to their personal folklore at the BJC.
Muthler: Nevills by decision
Moyer: Nevills by decision
Final score
Muthler’s outlook: Ohio State has the chance to hand Penn State its third loss of the season. To keep that from happening, the Nittany Lions will likely need to win at least one of the 125, 141 or 157-pound bouts. If they don’t, they’ll need to rely on big bonus points from the likes of RBY, Joseph and Hall. Final score prediction: Penn State 21-13
Moyer’s outlook: Ohio State should start out hot at the lower weights, but the Nittany Lions’ murderers’ row of Joseph, Hall and Brooks should give them the lead for good. It’ll be a tight match, one I see again coming down to the final bout, but — assuming the dual starts at 125 pounds — Seth Nevills should cruise to seal it. Final score prediction: Penn State 20-16
This story was originally published February 13, 2020 at 5:36 PM.
