How will Penn State wrestlers fare at Big Ten championships? Here are our predictions
The Penn State wrestling team is traveling to Piscataway, New Jersey, this weekend to defend its Big Ten tournament team title from last season.
Senior Mark Hall will be looking for his third straight individual conference title, while senior Vincenzo Joseph, junior Nick Lee, sophomore Roman Bravo-Young and freshman Aaron Brooks will all be in contention for their first.
Also on the line this weekend are automatic qualifying spots for the NCAA tournament March 19-21 in Minneapolis.
Here are our predictions and projections for this weekend:
125 pounds: Brandon Meredith (No. 14 seed)
Penn State hasn’t had a 125-pounder wrestle at NCAAs since the 2015-16 season, when Nico Megaludis won the national championship. Nick Suriano received an at-large bid in 2017 after medically forfeiting out of Big Tens, but ultimately didn’t wrestle.
It doesn’t look like the Nittany Lions’ luck at 125 pounds is going to change this year.
At 12-13 this season, 1-8 in the Big Ten (his lone Big Ten win being a forfeit), Meredith is seeded last in the weight class at No. 14, and will have to finish in the top eight to move on to nationals. Meredith, however, could run into some good luck.
If the pre-seeds hold, the redshirt freshman will likely wrestle his first match against Minnesota’s Patrick McKee, who hasn’t competed since the Jan. 31 dual against Purdue. If McKee medically forfeits out of the tournament from the start, like Suriano, that’d be six team points for the Nittany Lions, and Meredith would have to win just one more bout to qualify.
But regardless of whether that happens, Meredith still has a tough road to Minneapolis. He’s wrestled some close matches against guys he could see in the consolations, like Ohio State’s Malik Heinselman and Maryland’s Brandon Cray, and he has the opportunity to reverse some of those results. But he’ll have to be wrestling better than he’s wrestled all season to do so.
Muthler’s projected finish: 12th
Moyer’s projected finish: 14th
133 pounds: Roman Bravo-Young (No. 2 seed)
Roman Bravo-Young admitted he was a little nervous heading into last season’s Big Ten tournament. But this year?
He knows what to expect. So any nerves, he said, have been replaced with a sense of confidence. Plus, it’s only Big Tens.
“This thing is just more practice,” Bravo-Young said earlier this week. “People remember you from the NCAAs, not Big Tens, so that’s my take on it.”
Bravo-Young isn’t psyching himself out much ahead of the tournament. As the No. 2 seed, he said he has no expectations outside of wrestling his best.
But, from the outside, he’s expected to challenge for the conference title. The main wrestler standing in his way is Wisconsin’s top seed in Seth Gross — who handed Bravo-Young his only loss this season, a 6-5 decision early last month.
RBY will also have to contend with Iowa’s No. 3 seed in Austin DeSanto, whom he beat by injury default in January. Bravo-Young did have the early edge in that bout, but the rematch is no guaranteed win for the Nittany Lion, who finished fifth at the tournament last season.
“I think he started out a little slower than he’s capable of, and something just kind of snapped,” coach Cael Sanderson said, alluding to Bravo-Young’s season. “He kind of figured things out, and he’s been wrestling with more confidence and more fire the last couple months.”
Muthler’s projected finish: Third
Moyer’s projected finish: Runner-up
141 pounds: Nick Lee (No. 1 seed)
Nick Lee will go into the Big Ten tournament with a bit of a target on his back.
Not only has Lee beaten every opponent he’s faced in the Big Ten, but he’s mostly done so with bonus points.
Lee seems to be on a crash course for a rematch with Ohio State’s No. 2 Luke Pletcher, whom he beat 8-4 Feb. 15, for the rights to the top seed at nationals. But that doesn’t mean guys like Iowa’s No. 3 Max Murin, Nebraska’s No. 4 Chad Red, Wisconsin’s No. 5 Tristan Moran and Minnesota’s No. 6 Mitch McKee should be discounted. All will be gunning to knock off the top seeds.
Lee will have Red, his old high school rival, on his side of the bracket. While Lee beat the Cornhusker by major decision earlier in the season, Red has historically had his best performances in the postseason
Heading into his third Big Ten tournament, Lee is well aware of how tough the competition is, finishing third the previous two years. But instead of fearing the competition, Lee is looking forward to it.
“You know you’re not going to have any matches you can overlook. You’ve got to be ready for every single one,” he said Monday. “I think that’s kind of the exciting part for me. I really get to show my strength and try to be my best for every match. So that’s the exciting part.”
If Lee continues to wrestle at the level he’s been wrestling at all season long, he should be in an excellent spot to win his first Big Ten tile and set himself up to be in a great position to make a run for his first NCAA title.
Muthler’s projected finish: Champion
Moyer’s projected finish: Champion
149 pounds: Jarod Verkleeren (No. 8 seed)
Jarod Verkleeren’s performance at Big Tens is more important than most.
As the No. 8 seed, he’s close to the NCAA-qualifying bubble, as the top 10 from Big Tens will advance. His seed at NCAAs will also be paramount so he can at least have a favorable first-round matchup. But there’s no doubt Verkleeren has made strides since the start of the conference season.
In his past three matches, he knocked off American’s No. 15 Kizhan Clarke, 3-1, while falling in sudden victory to both Ohio State’s No. 1 Sammy Sasso and Minnesota’s No. 7 Brayton Lee. (Sasso and Lee are the Nos. 1 and 3 seeds at Big Tens, respectively.)
“I know that I can wrestle with these guys,” Verkleeren said earlier this week, “so that’s what I’m going to do at Big Tens.”
Verkleeren is a darling upset pick, but the nation’s No. 15 wrestler at 149 still needs to finish out his matches. Close won’t cut it at the conference tournament.
Luckily, for Verkleeren, he seems to be putting it all together at the right time.
“He’s just got a different look in his eye, a little more energy, and he’s the guy now,” coach Cael Sanderson said. “We were kind of back-and-forth for a little while and maybe that can be a distraction, but a lot of being successful is just really being focused and clear on what you want.
“And he’s kind of figured that out.”
Muthler’s projected finish: Sixth place
Moyer’s projected finish: Fifth place
157 pounds: Bo Pipher (No. 13 seed)
The 157-pound weight class has been up in the air all season for the Nittany Lions. Coach Cael Sanderson had remained hopeful that sophomore Brady Berge would be able to return after suffering a preseason head injury, but in the end, it didn’t work out.
Instead, it’ll be junior Bo Pipher, who’s wrestled most of the season, going 9-11 overall and 2-8 against Big Ten opponents.
While Pipher has demonstrated solid baseline defense — only one of his loses has come with bonus points — he’s often had trouble finishing takedowns. In duals this season, Pipher had just one takedown.
Talking to the media Monday, Pipher said he was feeling confident heading into the conference tournament.
“I think I’m a lot better than I was at the beginning of the year,” he said. “I think everybody would probably say that, but I definitely think right now I feel the best I’ve felt and I’m just super excited to compete. I’m definitely feeling good right now.”
As the No. 13 seed in a weight class that will only automatically advance six to NCAAs, Pipher will have a lot of work to do to keep his season alive.
Muthler’s projected finish: 14th
Moyer’s projected finish: 13th
165 pounds: Vincenzo Joseph (No. 1 seed)
Vincenzo Joseph already has two national titles to his name — but his trophy case still doesn’t have a single conference title.
Oddly enough, he’s never fared better at Big Tens than NCAAs. As a freshman, he won a national title but came in third at Big Tens. The next year, he again won the national title — after finishing as the Big Ten runner-up. Last season, he finished second in both tournaments.
He won’t have an easy go at it this season, either, even as the top seed.
Joseph’s weight class is pretty top heavy, with Iowa’s Alex Marinelli seeded at No. 2 followed by Wisconsin’s Evan Wick and Nebraska’s Isaiah White. Joseph is 1-2 all-time vs. Marinelli, including a 7-5 win earlier this season, and he’s 4-0 vs. White — although their first three bouts couldn’t have possibly been closer, as two went to sudden victory. (He also beat Wick 8-0 last month.)
Joseph and Mark Hall are the calm-and-collected vets here so, even if Joseph’s eyes are on nationals, fans never have to worry about him letting up. Joseph is one of the best pound-for-pound wrestlers at this level, and he’s getting bonus points in nearly 70% of his bouts.
He hasn’t lost since last year’s NCAA tournament on March 21, 2019 — nearly a full calendar year. It would surprise absolutely no one if Joseph’s 13-match winning streak continued.
Muthler’s projected finish: Champion
Moyer’s projected finish: Champion
174 pounds: Mark Hall (No. 2 seed)
Since the beginning of the season, Mark Hall has been clear that is goal is to finish his college career the way he started it — as a national champ.
He’s been so dedicated to that goal, in fact, that he chose not to take part in any freestyle competition leading up to April’s Olympic Trials until after the folkstyle season.
Hall had seemed well on his way to accomplishing that goal until he lost to Iowa’s Michael Kemerer during the dual on Jan. 31.
He’ll have the chance to avenge that loss this weekend as it looks likely the two will meet again in the finals. If the pre-seeds hold, Kemerer will have Nebraska’s Mikey Labriola, who gave him his closest match of the season, in the quarters.
In his last match with Kemerer, Hall attempted a throw early, but the takedown wasn’t called and Kemerer countered with a takedown of his own. From there, Kemerer took over the match. Hall is determined not to repeat that same mistake again.
“I think I learned my lesson from the Iowa match that if I do something big, I got to put it away,” he said after hitting a quick cement mixer and pinning Ohio State’s Kaleb Romero on Feb. 15.
Whether Hall has learned his lesson and and can make the adjustments will be key for him to win his third Big Ten tournament and lay claim to the No. 1 seed for NCAAs.
Muthler’s projected finish: Champion
Moyer’s projected finish: Champion
184 pounds: Aaron Brooks (No. 1 seed)
Aaron Brooks may be the top seed, but 184 pounds is still wide open.
There’s a lot of potential parity at this weight class. Brooks’ only loss came against Nebraska’s inconsistent Taylor Venz, who lost to Ohio State’s Rocky Jordan, Michigan State’s Cameron Caffey and Iowa’s Abe Assad. Based on the pre-seeds, Brooks is No. 1, followed by Caffey, Assad, Venz, Rutgers’ Billy Janzer and Jordan.
And Jordan lost to the likes of Janzer and Minnesota’s Owen Webster, the No. 8 seed. In other words, a whole lot can happen at 184 — and Brooks has the potential to realistically finish anywhere from No. 1 to No. 4.
That being said, coach Cael Sanderson didn’t sound too concerned Monday.
“Aaron brings a great attitude, and he’s a title contender right now,” Sanderson said matter-of-factly.
With Arizona State’s Zahid Valencia likely out for NCAAs due to an indefinite suspension reportedly related to a failed drug test, the winner here could set himself up for one of the top seeds at NCAAs, along with the ACC champ. That could put the Big Ten champ in a better spot to win the national title.
But first things first: Winning this weight class at Big Tens won’t be easy. Brooks, a freshman who previously spent time at the Olympic Training Center in Colorado, has the slight advantage. He’s made notable progress over the last few months, and he’s not afraid to be aggressive. But there’s not a whole lot of separation at 184.
Muthler’s projected finish: Champion
Moyer’s projected finish: Runner-up
197 pounds: Shakur Rasheed (No. 6 seed)
Shakur Rasheed will have little room for error this weekend if he wants to keep his national championship dreams alive.
The sixth-year senior is pre-seeded sixth in a weight class with just six automatic qualifications. Seeded one below Rasheed is his former Penn State teammate and roommate Jordan Pagano, of Rutgers. While Rasheed beat Pagano 6-0 in the Jan. 19 dual, the Scarlet Knight was ranked above the Nittany Lion in the NCAA’s most recent coaches’ rankings, released Feb. 27. Pagano earned a big upset of Princeton All-American Patrick Brucki on Feb. 23.
If the pre-seeds hold and Rasheed wins his first match, he’ll likely find himself up against Iowa’s Jacob Warner, to whom he lost 4-2 in the dual. If he loses to Warner again, he’ll have to win twice in consolations to advance.
Rasheed hasn’t been performing at the level he had been prior to his offseason ACL surgery. But with not just one but two cross-face cradles in his pin of American’s William Jarrell on senior night, Rasheed looked more like his old self than he had all season.
Rasheed was happy to end his last match at Rec Hall with a cradle, and was hoping to carry that momentum into the postseason.
“I don’t think the match itself is going to change everything. I think it was more before the match in preparation and talking to the coaches that helped me get into the right mind space for this match and going on,” Rasheed said. “There’s, what — I don’t know the math — nine, eight matches to win Big Tens and nationals. So, take it one match at a time and just give it my all. That’s what I’m focused on at this point, is giving it my all.”
Muthler’s projected finish: Seventh place
Moyer’s projected finish: Sixth place
285 pounds: Seth Nevills (No. 7 seed)
Seven Big Ten heavyweights will qualify for the NCAA tournament, and Seth Nevills just so happens to be seeded No. 7.
His performance this weekend will have a huge bearing on the Nittany Lions’ national title hopes.
With Iowa boasting a solid overall lineup, Penn State needs to qualify as many wrestlers as possible to stand a chance at NCAAs. That means it can ill afford an eighth-place, or worse, finish from Nevills at Big Tens. If Nevills can at least advance, and then maybe finish with an upset or two at NCAAs, Penn State might stand a chance.
“Just need a little bit more fighting spirit out of Seth, and he’s right there too,” coach Cael Sanderson said. “He has the tools; he just has to believe in himself.”
Nevills is 5-3 in the Big Ten matches he’s wrestled, with losses to No. 2-seed Gable Steveson of Minnesota, No. 3-seed Tony Cassioppi of Iowa and No. 6-seed Gary Traub of Ohio State. The five wrestlers he’s beaten are all seeded ninth or worse, or are not competing in the tournament.
Sanderson acknowledged Monday that Penn State did attempt to submit a waiver request for Ohio State heavyweight transfer Greg Kerkvliet, but it was denied. So Nevills will have a lot on his shoulders this weekend.
The good news for PSU fans is that he’s embraced similar pressure before. Three times in the month of January, his final bout determined the match winner — and twice, against Nebraska and Illinois, he came out on top. (He fell to Iowa’s Cassioppi.)
He needs to be a clutch performer again for the Nittany Lions to set themselves up for NCAAs.
Muthler’s projected finish: Seventh place
Moyer’s projected finish: Seventh place
Team outlook
Muthler’s outlook: Runner-up. Conference tournaments, having a smaller field than NCAAs, typically favor teams with depth. Penn State doesn’t have that this year, but Iowa does. The Hawkeyes have all 10 wrestlers pre-seeded in the top three. Even with five potential finalists, it’ll be hard for Penn State to match Iowa’s firepower. But those top five should give the Nittany Lions the edge over Ohio State and Nebraska, who’ll likely be battling it out for third.
Moyer’s outlook: Runner-up. I see Penn State advancing eight to NCAAs, with Shakur Rasheed and Seth Nevills right on the bubble, but the Nittany Lions’ weaknesses at 125 and 157 will keep them from winning the Big Ten team title. Is it too early to start wishing congratulations to the Iowa Hawkeyes?
This story was originally published March 5, 2020 at 6:29 PM.
