How will Penn State wrestlers fare at the 2021 Big Ten Championships? Here are our predictions
Penn State is hosting the Big Ten Wrestling Championships for the first time this weekend since 2009. But don’t expect major traffic congestion around the Bryce Jordan Center.
While Gov. Tom Wolf’s revised COVID-19 mitigation restrictions on indoor and outdoor gatherings has allowed wrestlers’ closest fans to attend, the event will not be open to the general public.
Despite the absence of Penn State’s full loyal fan base this weekend, there are still advantages for the Nittany Lions in hosting the tournament. Most importantly for three-time All-American Nick Lee, it means not having to scramble between classes to pack a bag.
“Whether we have fans here or not, it is nice to not have to travel out of town and to be able to train in our own wrestling room,” Penn State coach Cael Sanderson said. “But regardless of where the ballroom is, as they say, we just got to go dance and do our thing.”
Sophomore Aaron Brooks will be looking to defend his 184-pound conference title from last season, while six Nittany Lions wrestlers will be making their postseason debuts. Also on the line this weekend are automatic qualifying spots for the NCAA Championships March 18-20 in St. Louis.
Here are our predictions and projections for this weekend:
125 pounds: Robert Howard (No. 11)
Howard could be Penn State’s first NCAA qualifier at 125 pounds since Nick Suriano received an at-large bid in 2017, but he’ll have a lot of work to do. As the No. 11 preliminary seed after amassing a 2-1 record in this condensed season, Howard will have to outperform his seed by three in order to be one of the eight qualifiers.
Working in Howard’s favor, however, is the chance to drop into consolations early and face lower-seeded wrestlers. If the pre-seeds hold, Howard should face off first against Wisconsin’s No. 6-seeded Eric Barnett. It’s hard to predict the outcome of this match because Howard, like most of his teammates, hasn’t wrestled many collegiate bouts. So, there’s not a lot of data to go off of. But if Howard wants a shot at qualifying, Barnett, who finished 10th at last year’s Big Tens, is the type of wrestler he’ll have to beat.
If Howard were to beat Barnett, it would most likely set up a rematch with Ohio State’s Malik Heinselman, who handed Howard his lone loss of the season. While upsets aren’t out of the question, both of those opponents should have the edge over the freshman. A loss to either of those two would mean Howard will need a win in the second round of wrestle-backs to secure a trip to Saint Louis and break Penn State’s drought at 125 pounds.
While the road to NCAAs may be challenging for Howard, a true freshman who has only wrestled three collegiate matches, the key here is that there is a real possibility he could outperform his seed and qualify at 125 pounds.
And that’s not something Penn State hasn’t had in quite awhile.
Muthler’s projected finish: Eighth place
Sauber’s projected finish: Seventh place
133 pounds: Roman Bravo-Young (No. 1)
Bravo-Young is one of two No. 1 seeds the Nittany Lions are set to boast entering the tournament. The junior 133-pounder has wrestled in the Big Ten Wrestling Championships twice, qualifying safely for the NCAA Wrestling Championships both times and should easily do the same again.
The junior finished fifth as a freshman before finishing as a runner-up at 133 pounds last season. His two wins last season in the conference championships came against the two wrestlers seeded just behind him this year — No. 2 seed Austin DeSanto of Iowa and No. 3 seed Sammy Alvarez of Rutgers. Bravo-Young won by decision over both last season but has yet to face the type of challenge either represents this season.
While he hasn’t faced that level of talent this year, the junior Nittany Lion has still cruised to his 6-0 record and is the favorite heading into the weekend. He’ll have a chance to earn bonus points for Penn State, but regardless of how much he scores, this weekend could be a resounding individual success.
Bravo-Young is primed to make the finals for the second year in a row, and has an excellent chance to earn a Big Ten title for the first time in his career.
Muthler’s projected finish: Champion
Sauber’s projected finish: Champion
141 pounds: Nick Lee (No. 2)
Lee is one of three wrestlers at his weight class entering the weekend undefeated. Of the trio, Lee is the only one to have never won a conference title. Iowa’s No. 1 Jaydin Eierman won three MAC championships while previously wrestling for Missouri, while Rutgers’ No. 2 Sebastian Rivera won a Big Ten title last year at 133 pounds, and at 125 the year before that.
Given the talent in the trio, it would be a surprise to see the title fall outside of that top group, with reason to believe Lee can come out on top. Neither Lee nor Eierman has faced off with Rivera in college after he moved up from 133 pounds this season, but the Nittany Lion and Hawkeye do have one bout against each other in their past.
Eierman and Lee faced off at the 2018 NCAA Championships when Lee was a freshman and Eierman was a sophomore at Missouri. The then-Tiger won via major decision, 12-4, but both wrestlers have drastically improved since that time.
Lee has only lost five matches since then, with four coming during the 2019 season, while Eierman has lost four in that same time span. Lee also beat Eierman in freestyle at the 2019 senior nationals.
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the folkstyle rematch that’s been three years in the making, but Riviera is more than capable of breaking that up. Lee will have to knock off both to earn his first Big Ten title, with Rivera looming in the semis and Eierman in the finals. While it will be a battle to get to the finals and win, Lee is a virtual lock to qualify for NCAAs.
Muthler’s projected finish: Third place
Sauber’s projected finish: Runner-up
149 pounds: Beau Bartlett (No. 11)
During Penn State’s season-opening tri-meet against Indiana and Northwestern, Jeff Byers, of the Pennsylvania Sports Network, said on air that Bartlett had his sights set on beating out teammate Nick Lee for the starting spot at 141 pounds and winning a national title this season.
Beating out a three-time All-American who would have almost certainly made the NCAA finals if they had happened last year is a bold goal to have. But it’s the kind of ambition you’d expect from a high schooler who placed eighth at the 2019 senior-level U.S. Open.
While Bartlett, like Howard, doesn’t have a ton of collegiate data to his name (going 7-1 with most of his wins coming against backups in extra matches), it can be expected that he’ll outperform his seed. Bartlett struggled to get out from bottom in his lone loss of the year, against Ohio State’s No. 1-seed Sammy Sasso. But if he can overcome being a bit undersized and his lack of collegiate experience, he could turn a lot of heads this weekend.
If the pre-seeds hold, Bartlett’s draw is pretty favorable. Like Howard, he’ll get to avoid the top wrestlers early, facing off first against Minnesota’s Michael Blockhus, a transfer from Northern Iowa, and Purdue’s Griffin Parriott if he wins the first bout. Both of those should be winnable matches for the true freshman.
And if he wins those both, he’s in.
Muthler’s projected finish: Third place
Sauber’s projected finish: Third place
157 pounds: Brady Berge (No. 5)
Berge gave fans a glimpse of his potential at the 2019 Big Ten Championships when, as a freshman, he upset Iowa’s No. 3-seed Pat Lugo in sudden victory overtime in his home state of Minnesota. But since suffering a head injury that offseason, it’s harder to tell what his trajectory might be.
The good news is that Berge is back on the mat competing again. He’s looked solid so far this season, putting together a 5-0 record, including a 3-1 win over Michigan’s No. 6-seed Will Lewan. But 157 is full of tough wrestlers in the Big Ten.
One of the most interesting bouts for Berge could be a second-round matchup with Purdue’s No. 4 Kendall Coleman. The Boilermaker is 8-1 on the season, his lone loss coming by way of a 3-2 decision to Minnesota’s No. 3 Brayton Lee. A win there would lock up a spot for Berge at NCAAs and likely set up a semifinal matchup against top-seeded Ryan Deakin, of Northwestern, the heavy favorite in the weight class.
Whether Berge gets a shot at Deakin or falls to consolations in Round 2, he should have a good chance at making his second trip to NCAAs. A win in the second round of the consolation bracket would secure it.
And for a wrestler who’s been through what he has physically, that’s a win.
Muthler’s projected finish: Seventh place
Sauber’s projected finish: Fourth place
165 pounds: Joe Lee (No. 6 seed)
Lee should be coming into Big Tens with something to prove. Both of the redshirt freshman’s losses this season — a close 4-1 decision to Michigan freshman Cam Amine and a pin to Ohio State’s Ethan Smith — are ones he’d surely like to take back.
The Nittany Lion could get the chance to avenge at least one of those losses this weekend. If the seeds hold, Lee will begin his first Big Ten Championships run with a match against Maryland’s No. 11 Jonathan Spadafora, whom Lee pinned in Penn State’s last dual of the season. Another win over the Terrapin would likely set up a rematch with Smith.
In their last match, the pair battled fairly evenly until Lee tweaked his right knee off a low single-leg shot from Smith. He returned to the mat after an injury timeout midway through the first period. Lee was able to take Smith down for the 2-1 lead, but Smith rolled through, locked up a cross-face cradle and stuck Lee on his back in 2:33.
The fall — which tied up the dual for the Buckeyes — marked the first pin Lee’s given up since wrestling unattached his grayshirt year. Given another chance, Lee should be able to wrestle a much closer match. He was winning before the fall and was pushing the action early. A win would mean redemption for Lee and a guaranteed trip to St. Louis, while a loss would mean he needs another win in wrestle-backs.
Muthler’s projected finish: Sixth place
Sauber’s projected finish: Seventh place
174 pounds: Carter Starocci (No. 3)
Starocci has a difficult path to the finals, but nevertheless has a shot to win a Big Ten title as a freshman. The 174-pounder will potentially have a rematch with Ohio State’s Kaleb Romero in the quarterfinals and will then potentially face InterMat’s No. 1 and No. 2 wrestlers in the weight class if he wants to take home the gold.
The freshman found some success against Romero in their first matchup, eking out a 2-1 victory in the first tiebreaker period over the Buckeye. Starocci’s only loss of the season came in his debut against Indiana’s Donnell Washington, who he’s unlikely to face this weekend barring a surprising run to the finals from Washington.
Instead, Starocci could be staring in the face of Nebraska’s undefeated Michael Labriola in the semis. Labriola’s best win this season came over Washington and should be a quality test for Starocci. If the Nittany Lion can defeat the Cornhusker 174-pounder, Iowa’s Michael Kemerer will likely be waiting in the finals. Kemerer has made it to the finals twice in his Big Ten career, but fell to Nittany Lions on both occasions. He dropped the 2017 final at 157 pounds to Jason Nolf and then the 174-pound final last season to Mark Hall.
Starocci has the talent and pedigree to be the third Nittany Lion to defeat Kemerer for a Big Ten title and will almost assuredly qualify for NCAAs.
Muthler’s projected finish: Third place
Sauber’s projected finish: Runner-up
184 pounds: Aaron Brooks (No. 1)
Brooks is the second of Penn State’s two No. 1 seeds heading into the conference championships and he’s the only Nittany Lion with a conference title under his belt. The sophomore took home the Big Ten crown at 184 pounds last season and is in prime position to do the same this year.
His best competition could come from Nebraska’s No. 6 seed Taylor Venz, who handed Brooks the lone loss of his collegiate career. Brooks avenged that loss by pinning Venz at last year’s Big Tens. The Nittany Lion also easily dispatched the No. 2 seed, Wisconsin’s Chris Weiler, with a 12-3 major decision victory in Penn State’s dual with the Badgers in January.
Brooks is the clear favorite at the weight and is a tier above the rest of the weight class in the Big Ten.
The sophomore’s biggest concern will be not getting caught looking ahead to NCAAs, where he’ll also be favored to win the title. Looking too far ahead hasn’t been an issue for the Nittany Lions in the past and it’s unlikely to be an issue for Brooks this weekend, either.
He’ll be in a position to rack up bonus points throughout the weekend and be a key contributor to Penn State’s point total as the Nittany Lions try to challenge Iowa for the overall crown.
Muthler’s projected finish: Champion
Sauber’s projected finish: Champion
197 pounds: Michael Beard (No. 7)
Of all of Penn State’s wrestlers, Beard might have one of the most difficult paths to St. Louis. The Big Ten has just six automatic qualifying bids at 197 pounds, the fewest of any weight class. Seeded No. 7 with a 3-1 record, Beard will have to outperform his seed to earn a trip to NCAAs.
Beard’s lone loss this season was an 8-5 decision to Michigan’s No. 2 seed Myles Amine, who he could face again in the second round. Another loss would send Beard to the consolation bracket, where he’d have to win twice to punch his ticket to St. Louis.
He has some extra work to do, but an automatic bid is still certainly in reach for the redshirt freshman. If he were to fall short, Beard would have to wait to see if he could receive an at-large bid. Because of the uniqueness of this season, the NCAA is giving out more at-large bids than usual, with seven available nationally at 197 pounds.
Criteria for those bids include quality wins, coaches rankings and RPI. At No. 21 in the most recent coaches rankings, Beard should have a good shot at an auto-bid should he fall short.
But, of course, the former National Prep champion will be looking to make sure his spot is secured this weekend.
Muthler’s projected finish: Seventh place
Sauber’s projected finish: Sixth place
Heavyweight: Greg Kerkvliet (No. 7)
Kerkvliet will be one of the most intriguing Nittany Lions to watch this weekend. His seed doesn’t match his talent or his litany of accomplishments, but his lack of matches this season will put him in a position where he has to knock off three of the best heavyweights in the country to win a title. The redshirt freshman is set to face Michigan’s Mason Parris in the quarterfinals, InterMat’s No. 2 wrestler in the country at the weight class. Parris is an athletic freak who was a state qualifier in high school in the 110m hurdles in track and field.
Getting past him would lead to a likely matchup with InterMat’s No. 3 heavyweight, Iowa’s Tony Cassioppi, whose only losses over the last two seasons have come at the hands of Parris and the weight classes No. 1 wrestler, Minnesota’s Gable Steveson — who could be waiting for Kerkvliet in the finals. Kerkvliet is arguably in the same class as those three wrestlers and will have an opportunity to make a run this weekend.
His two victories — both by fall against an unimpressive Maryland team — leave plenty of question marks. He’s yet to face high-level competition outside of the — very talented — Penn State wrestling room.
Kerkvliet will be thrown to the fire in Big Tens and will have a chance to prove he’s every bit as skilled as Parris and Steveson.
Muthler’s projected finish: Third place
Sauber’s projected finish: Third place
Team Outlook
Muthler’s outlook: Runner-up. While most of Penn State’s lineup — boasting six freshmen — is still unproven, the Nittany Lions have the chance to be bringing one of their most complete teams into the Big Ten Championships in the past several years. While they have the opportunity to score points at every weight, they’re hurt by the loss of guaranteed finalists Mark Hall and Vincenzo Joseph from last year. While there’s plenty of opportunity for freshmen such as Bartlett, Starocci and Kerkvliet to step up and fill those shoes, it won’t be easy, particularly this year with limited matches under their belts. Barring injury, Penn State shouldn’t have a problem improving upon its fourth-place finish from last year. While overtaking the favored Hawkeyes will be tough, that opportunity to pick up points at each weight class should put second place in sight for the Nittany Lions.
Sauber’s outlook: Runner-up. It’s difficult to see a path to a team championship this weekend barring an epic collapse by Iowa. Even then, it will take the Nittany Lions finishing drastically above their seeds to earn the title. While it’s a possibility, the logical choice here is the Hawkeyes. That being said, I’ve got all 10 Nittany Lions qualifying for NCAAs with their performances at Big Tens, with Howard and Beard as the two closest to missing out.
