How will Penn State wrestlers fare at the NCAA Championships? Here are our predictions
The NCAA Wrestling Championships will be held Thursday through Saturday for the first time in two years, after being canceled last year due to COVID-19 pandemic.
While the Nittany Lions are the defending team champions from 2019, it’s going to be difficult to hang on to that title this week in St. Louis with the fully loaded Hawkeyes as the heavy favorites. But Penn State has the opportunity to crown some first-time national champions, and get in some entertaining bouts.
We took a stab at how we think each of the nine Nittany Lions wrestlers will fare when the action kicks off at 11 a.m. Thursday. Here’s what we’re thinking:
125 pounds: Robert Howard (No. 23 seed)
Muthler: In the words of coach Cael Sanderson, Penn State freshman Robert Howard is “just getting started.” Though he’s seeded No. 23, Howard has already proven he can beat higher-seeded guys, such as Michigan’s No. 11 Dylan Ragusin, who he topped 3-1 in sudden victory at Big Tens.
Howard has potential to create disruption on the backside of the bracket, but his path to earning All-American status is undoubtedly easier if he were to win the first-round upset over Ohio State’s No. 10 Malik Heinselman, who he’s lost to twice by identical 5-2 scores this season. A third loss to the Buckeye would mean a second-round consolation matchup with either Big Ten runnerup Devin Schroder, of Purdue, or All-American redshirt junior Rayvon Foley, of Michigan State, and a short run in his first NCAA campaign.
Projected finish: DNP
Sauber: Howard’s season should be considered a success just because he made NCAAs. The freshman had surgery after his senior year of high school and had to rehab before making his return to the mat, delaying some of his training.
The No. 23 seed at his weight class drew a familiar foe in the first round in Ohio State’s Malik Heinselman, the No. 10 seed. A first-round upset would be an excellent outcome for Howard and put him in prime position to overachieve at his seed. If that doesn’t happen he’ll have a slim chance at earning All-American honors.
Projected finish: DNP
133 pounds: Roman Bravo-Young (No. 2 seed)
Muthler: A final between Penn State’s Roman Bravo-Young and Oklahoma State’s Daton Fix seems almost inevitable, but ACC champ Korbin Myers, of Virginia Tech, could present a tough semifinal matchup for the Nittany Lion. Pennsylvania product Myers topped Pitt’s No. 1 seed Micky Phillippi to win the ACC title and the tournament’s Most Outstanding Wrestler.
If RBY clears the semifinals, it will set up one of the most anticipated matchups of the season. The Cowboys redshirt sophomore lost in the NCAA finals as a freshman in 2019 before taking an Olympic redshirt last year and serving a one-year suspension from the United States Anti-Doping Agency. Since returning to competition on Feb. 14, Oklahoma State coach John Smith told reporters he sees “a better wrestler right now than I’ve ever seen with Daton.”
While Fix will be the popular pick, RBY has the athleticism and speed to make it tough for the Cowboy to score a takedown.
Projected finish: Runner up
Sauber: Bravo-Young is coming off his first career Big Ten title and is poised to be one of Penn State’s best finishers at NCAAs this weekend. He’s one of the best in the country at 133 pounds and should make it to the semifinals with ease. A win there would likely set up a matchup with Oklahoma State’s Daton Fix, the No. 1 seed and clear favorite at the weight.
A second-place finish to Fix would be nothing to scoff at and is what I see as the most likely outcome this weekend for the junior Nittany Lion.
Projected finish: Runner up
141 pounds: Nick Lee (No. 2 seed)
Muthler: Anyone who was hoping the Big Ten Championships would provide clarity on who, out of Nick Lee, Iowa’s Jaydin Eierman and Rutgers’ Sebastian Rivera, is the most likely winner at NCAAs was surely disappointed — but not by the quality of the matches. While Eierman came out on top to earn the No. 1 seed, one doesn’t have to stretch their imagination too much to envision any of those three standing on top of the podium when the dust settles on Saturday.
Lee shouldn’t have trouble reaching the semifinals, where he’ll be met with a likely rematch with Rivera, who he topped 8-6 in sudden victory two weeks ago in a wild, scramble-filled match. Rivera was winning the takedown battle 2-1 before giving up a penalty point and escape to Lee to send the bout into overtime. To win again, Lee will have to be sure to finish all his shots and not give Rivera the chance for a re-attack. For a different outcome against Eierman, Lee will have to get out from bottom quicker, which doomed him in his 6-5 loss.
If Penn State has any hope of pulling the upset for the team title, this weight is a must win.
Projected finish: Third place
Sauber: Lee — like Bravo-Young — is primed to make a run to the finals at his weight class. The 141-pound senior finished second at Big Tens and is in position to avenge his loss when he goes to NCAAs. Lee could potentially see Big Ten foes in the semifinals and finals in Rutgers’ Sebastian Rivera and Iowa’s Jaydin Eierman, respectively.
Lee was able to knock off Rivera at Big Tens but it was Eierman who defeated him for the title. The rematch should happen between the two 141-pounders and I like Lee’s chances to overcome the odds and avenge his only defeat as a senior.
Projected finish: Champion
157 pounds: Brady Berge (No. 12 seed)
Muthler: As the No. 12 seed, Brady Berge will have some work to do to earn All-American status for the first time in his career. Should he get past promising Navy freshman Andrew Cerniglia in the first round, Berge is set to hit a tough opponent in Iowa’s No. 5 seed Kaleb Young in the second round. But his path to the podium through wrestlebacks looks favorable.
Winning three straight in the consolation bracket isn’t out of the question for Berge. That result would require a third-round wrestle-back win over likely opponents No. 10 Justin Thomas, of Oklahoma, or No. 7 Jarrett Jacques, of Missouri, barring any upsets. Either should be winnable matches for the Nittany Lion junior.
Berge looked offensive during the Big Ten Championships, securing two major decisions, but then medically forfeited from his final bout. Sanderson has not publicly addressed why he didn’t wrestle that fifth-place match. If Berge can stay healthy throughout the tournament, a spot on the podium should be within reach.
Projected finish: Eighth place
Sauber: Berge should get by his first round opponent as the No. 12 seed but will immediately walk into a tough matchup in the second. Second place Big Ten finisher from Iowa, Kaleb Young, will likely be waiting for him in the second round and that will be a tall task for Berge. He’ll likely need to fight through wrestlebacks, but you can’t rule out an All-American finish for the junior.
That outcome would be a success this season given the head injury he came back from last year and the fact that he’s only wrestled in 12 college matches over the last two seasons heading into NCAAs.
Projected finish: Eighth place
165 pounds: Joe Lee (No. 23 seed)
Muthler: After finishing below his seed at the Big Ten Championships, Joe Lee is going to be looking for some upsets of his own this weekend to end his redshirt freshman campaign on a high note. However, his draw looks to be pretty tough. Lee’s first matchup is against former Penn State commit Travis Wittlake, of Oklahoma State. Wittlake is 16-1 on the season, but was knocked down in the seedings to No. 10 after dropping a semifinal bout at Big 12s in sudden victory to North Dakota State’s Luke Weber.
While Lee should be able to win his first match in consolations, he would then likely face face the No. 9 seed Weber or Stanford’s No. 8 Shane Griffith, who was a Hodge Trophy finalist last year after an undefeated freshman season. Either of those opponents would be a tough matchup for the Nittany Lion, and could send Lee home early.
Projected finish: DNP
Sauber: The younger Lee has a brutal draw to open NCAAs after finishing eighth at Big Tens. He’ll have to take on Oklahoma State’s Travis Wittlake in the first round, who’s ranked as the No. 3 wrestler in the class according to InterMat but received the No. 10 seed despite that. It’s unlikely Lee gets past him and will have to immediately drop to wrestlebacks in his first appearance at NCAAs. The wrestlebacks draw should shape up much more nicely for Lee who will have a chance to make a decent run. However, the opening match against Wittlake makes it hard to project much success for Lee.
Projected finish: DNP
174 pounds: Carter Starocci (No. 3 seed)
Muthler: Unlike his fellow redshirt freshman Joe Lee, Carter Starocci has a much more favorable path to the podium in his first NCAA Championships. Earning the No. 3 seed, Starocci will be on the opposite side of the bracket from Iowa’s No. 1 Michael Kemerer, who beat the Nittany Lion pretty convincingly in the Big Ten final. That makes Starocci’s chances of making the finals as a freshman much more manageable, but it still won’t be particularly easy.
To get to the finals, Starocci faces likely matchups with Kent State’s Andrew McNally, the MAC champion, in the quarters and Utah Valley’s undefeated Big 12 champ Demetrius Romero or Ohio State’s Kaleb Romero, who Starocci has beaten in two close matches this season, in the semis. While difficult, these are all winnable matches for the Nittany Lion, setting up a Big Ten final rematch. While Starocci has already shown marked improvement over this short season, it’s difficult to see Starocci making the needed adjustments in less than two weeks to reverse his result against one of the best wrestlers in the NCAA.
Projected finish: Second place
Sauber: Starocci is the Penn State freshman with the highest chance of success this weekend and the highest seed, coming in at No. 3 at his weight. His first major test might not come until the semifinals in a potential matchup with Utah Valley’s Demetrius Romero, the No. 2 seed. Starocci should be able to defeat Romero — or whichever wrestler advances to the semifinals — and setup a rematch with Iowa’s Michael Kemerer. While Starocci is supremely talented, it’s hard to see him knocking off the Hawkeye after Kemerer easily won over the Nittany Lion at Big Tens.
Projected finish: Second place
184 pounds: Aaron Brooks (No. 1 seed)
Muthler: Favored to win NCAAs last year before the tournament was canceled due to COVID-19, Aaron Brooks has had to wait a year for the opportunity to realize his dreams of becoming a national champion. But in that’s year’s time, Brooks says he’s matured, learning how to block out outside noise and focus on his wrestling.
The one question mark surrounding Brooks’ chances to become an NCAA champ is the apparent ankle injury he suffered in the Big Ten quarterfinals. But in a Thursday interview, Brooks said facing that adversity has only made him a more lethal opponent. “It shows you how much heart I truly have,” he said.
He’s set to face tough potential opponents in Virginia Tech’s Hunter Bolen in the semifinals and North Carolina State’s Trent Hidlay in the finals. Bolen was InterMat’s top-ranked wrestler at 184 pounds for most of the season, until he fell 6-1 to Hidlay in the ACC finals. Hidlay, a District 6 wrestling product from Mifflin County High School, is 6-1 on the season with his one loss coming to Bolen earlier in the season. Both of these wrestlers could present tough matchups for the Nittany Lion, but Brooks’ offense should give him an edge.
Projected finish: Champion
Sauber: No Nittany Lion is more likely to leave the weekend an NCAA champion than the No. 1-seeded Brooks. He’s only lost once in his career and has looked dominant this season. He’ll have a chance to avenge that loss — again — if Nebraska’s Taylor Venz can make it to the quarterfinals. Brooks should be able to defeat the Cornhusker for the second time this season and will have two ACC opponents potentially waiting in the semis and finals. Virginia Tech’s Hunter Bolen could meet Brooks in the semifinals while North Carolina State’s Trent Hidlay could be waiting in the finals. Both are viable opponents, but neither is likely to knock off Brooks.
Projected finish: Champion
197 pounds: Micheal Beard (No. 15 seed)
Muthler: This weight class is one of the most difficult to predict overall, and for Penn State freshman Michael Beard. Beard pushed Michigan’s No. 1 seed Myles Amine twice this season in two close losses, including one in sudden victory in the Big Ten quarterfinals. But after that loss, Beard didn’t have much luck in the consolations, suffering two losses to opponents ranked just ahead of him, Michigan State’s Cameron Caffey and Purdue’s Lucas Davison.
It’s hard to surmise exactly what that might mean for the Nittany Lion this weekend. If he makes it to the second round, Beard could face one of the tournament’s weaker No. 2 seeds in Nebraska’s Eric Schultz. If Penn State is looking for an upset in one of the first two rounds, that might be a match to circle. If he falls, making it on the podium will be much more difficult.
If he loses to Shultz, he’ll have to win three more in wrestlebacks to become an All-American, and likely have to reverse at least one of those losses against Caffey or Davison along the way.
Projected finish: Eighth
Sauber: Beard — yet another Nittany Lion freshman — enters NCAAs as a No. 15 seed with a difficult matchup potentially looming in the second round. If Beard earns a first-round win over Navy’s Jacob Koser, he’ll likely see Nebraska’s Eric Schultz waiting in the second round — the Big Ten’s champion at 197 pounds. Beard is going to have a difficult road back from there with multiple roadblocks in the way in potential wrestlebacks. The freshman doesn’t have a great chance to reach All-American status, and is unlikely to do so during his first experience at NCAAs.
Projected finish: DNP
Heavyweight: Greg Kerkvliet (No. 9 seed)
Muthler: Like with Howard, Sanderson indicated last week that the future is very bright for his freshman heavyweight. Greg Kerkvliet, however, has several factors working against him this year. Sanderson said he believed Kerkvliet wouldn’t be available to wrestle this season, until he was cleared shortly before the Nittany Lions’ final dual of the season, against Maryland. Having only wrestled two matches, Kerkvliet was seeded seventh at the Big Ten Championships, where he went 4-2 to finish fourth.
The Nittany Lion’s two losses came to the much larger Mason Parris, of Michigan, and Tony Cassioppi, of Iowa. According to Sanderson, Kerkvliet is a bit undersized, due to not being able to train earlier in the season. Also working against Kerkvliet is the loaded talent at the top of this weight class. Cracking the top four will be a difficult task for the Nittany Lion this year.
However, it’s not difficult to see Kerkvliet finishing above his No. 9 seed and earning All-American status in his short freshman campaign.
Projected finish: Fifth place
Sauber: Kerkvliet should make his way to the quarterfinals with relative ease as the No. 9 seed, but he’ll have the ultimate test once he gets there. The freshman would very likely take on Minnesota’s Gable Steveson, the No. 1 heavyweight in the country and a dominant force at the weight class. A loss there wouldn’t be devastating for Kerkvliet who could reasonably wrestle his way back into the top three. Given his improving shape and lack of competition this season, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the best version we’ve seen of Kerkvliet this season at NCAAs.
Projected finish: Fourth place
Team Outlook
Muthler: Just like at Big Tens two weeks ago, Penn State should finish a distant second to the Hawkeyes. Also like at Big Tens, Penn State has a chance to put four wrestlers in the finals, but champions are not guaranteed the way they were when the likes of Zain Retherford, Jason Nolf and Bo Nickal were in the Nittany Lions’ arsenal. Penn State’s best chance to defend its 2019 team title is to win those four championship matches — which would include denying top-seeded Hawkeyes at two weights — and picking up a lot of points in wrestlebacks. But that’s a pretty tall order.
Projected finish: Second place
Sauber: Penn State should perform better than it did at Big Tens now that it has more experience — especially postseason experience — under its belt. Specifically, the freshmen should be able to perform much better than they did at Big Tens. However, it’s still unlikely to be enough to overcome an Iowa team that should run away with the title.
Projected finish: Second place
This story was originally published March 17, 2021 at 8:00 AM.
