Here’s a look at how we think Penn State wrestlers will fare at NCAA Championships
Penn State wrestling will be out for redemption this weekend when the program travels to Detroit for the 2022 NCAA Wrestling Championships. The Nittany Lions have won eight of the last 10 national titles, but failed to win this year’s Big Ten Wrestling Championships, finishing second behind Michigan.
They’ll have a chance to redeem themselves with a national title and could have the help of several national champions. Roman Bravo-Young, Nick Lee, Carter Starocci and Aaron Brooks will all be defending their titles from last season. Meanwhile, Max Dean will look to win a title of his own in his first appearance at NCAAs as a Nittany Lion and Brady Berge, Greg Kerkvliet and Drew Hildebrandt will try to rack up team points and make a run of their own.
Let’s take a look at how we project each of the nine Nittany Lion wrestlers will finish this weekend.
Drew Hildebrandt, 125 pounds, No. 16 seed
Nate Cobler: Hildebrandt got a tough draw here. He opens with Lock Haven’s Anthony Noto, who has just one loss on the season in his 30 matches wrestled. When it comes to rankings, Hildebrandt is 10th in the country to Noto’s 17th. Comparing the two against each other with common opponents, Hildebrandt has a 9-0 mark to Noto’s 5-1 record. Look for Hildebrandt to sneak by Noto, but he’ll get kicked into the consolation bracket in the second round as he’ll get top seed Nick Suriano of Michigan. From there, it keeps being tough for Hildebrandt, who will look to become an All-American again. He should make it to the fourth round of consolations, but he may end up getting either Purdue’s Devin Schroder or Minnesota’s Patrick McKee. If it’s McKee, it’s probably game over for Hildebrandt.
Predicted finish: Does not place
Jon Sauber: Penn State head coach Cael Sanderson voiced his frustrations with the seeding process for NCAAs and that should start with Hildebrandt. The senior struggled at the Big Ten Wrestling Championships earlier in March, but that doesn’t diminish the success he’s had since enrolling at Penn State and wrestling with the team in January. The 125-pounder should have, in all likelihood, been a top-10 seed but instead will have a brutal matchup in the second round against the top wrestler in the class — former Nittany Lion Nick Suriano. Suriano should win the title at the weight and Hildebrandt, while he kept it close with him when they faced off in the team dual, losing 2-1, isn’t likely to upset him. That will begin a long road in consolations for Hildebrandt, making it tough to become an All-American in his final year.
Predicted finish: Does not place
Roman Bravo-Young, 133 pounds, No. 1 seed
Cobler: RBY is entering what is presumed to be his final NCAA Championships with a target on his back as the No. 1 seed and reigning champ. It should be pretty much smooth sailing for the senior to reach the semifinals, where he’ll more than likely get a Big Ten finals rematch with Iowa’s Austin DeSanto. RBY lost to DeSanto twice, but in the last five matches, they’ve all gone the Nittany Lions’ way. Look for a rematch of last year’s NCAA finals, as RBY will get Oklahoma State’s Daton Fix.
Predicted finish: Champion
Sauber: There isn’t a wrestler in college at 133 pounds that should be able to knock Bravo-Young off this weekend. The Nittany Lion has been at his best this season and has already proven he can defeat the best in the weight class. For all of the unconventional tactics Iowa’s Austin DeSanto brings to the table, and the wealth of talent Oklahoma State’s Daton Fix brings, neither is in a position to knock off Bravo-Young. If this is his last experience as a collegiate wrestler, it should be a good one for last year’s national champion.
Predicted finish: Champion
Nick Lee, 141 pounds, No. 1 seed
Cobler: Lee, like RBY, will have a target on his back as the No. 1 seed and defending champ of the weight class. He won’t have as easy a trip though. Lee could see Rider’s Quinn Kinner in the second round. Kinner gave Lee a scare in Penn State’s final dual of the season against the Broncos. Kinner, who rode Lee for an entire period in their February bout, went for the winning score late as he was down 4-3. But Lee stayed calm and countered to secure the victory. Lee will get by Kinner again, and make the semifinals with no problems. Lee gets to the finals again, where he may get either the No. 2 seed in Iowa’s Jaydin Eierman, who Lee beat in last year’s finals, or No. 3 seed in Rutgers’ Sebastian Rivera. However, it’s rumored that both Rivera and Eierman are each dealing with knee injuries. It’s possible that Pittsburgh’s Cole Matthews could make a run to the finals.
Predicted finish: Champion
Sauber: Lee’s greatest competition, like the case for so many of the Nittany Lions competing, will come from within the conference. He’s the prohibitive favorite, but will likely have to take on a conference foe in order to come away with the national title this season. Last year he had to defeat Iowa’s Jaydin Eierman, who got the best of him in the 2021 Big Ten Wrestling Championships, to earn the title. This year, Eierman medically forfeited in the Big Ten final, giving Lee the conference title. If it’s not Eierman, and his injury is still bugging him, it could be Rutgers’ Sebastian Rivera that faces Lee in the final. Whether it’s Lee, or it’s Rivera, or even someone else, it’s hard to see Lee not ending his career with another national title.
Predicted finish: Champion
Beau Bartlett, 149 pounds, No. 13 seed
Cobler: Bartlett has a somewhat favorable draw as the 13 seed. However, he’s getting a taste of his first NCAA Championships, so that could play a factor into things. Bartlett gets Northern Iowa’s Colin Realbuto first, which he should get past. He’ll then take on Ohio State’s Sammy Sasso, who is the No. 4 seed in the second round. Bartlett nearly upset Sasso in the teams’ dual in February inside the Bryce Jordan Center. With just over one minute remaining the bout, Bartlett secured a reversal for a 2-1 lead. However, Sasso secured a winning takedown with just six seconds remaining to capture a 4-2 win. This time, Bartlett gets by Sasso, but just finishes on the podium.
Predicted finish: 8th
Sauber: Bartlett, who could reasonably be the team’s 141-pounder if he didn’t have to get by the best in the nation within his own room, will have an uphill battle as his opponents are generally stronger and longer than him. Not to mention, making your debut at NCAAs is hard enough, but doing it at what could be considered an unnatural weight class is even harder. His talent alone could carry him relatively far, especially if he can beat Ohio State’s Sammy Sasso in the second round. Sasso is the No. 4 seed, but nearly fell to Bartlett in the team dual in February. If Bartlett gets by the Buckeye, he’ll have a chance to finish as an All-American in his first appearance.
Predicted finish: 6th
Brady Berge, 157 pounds, No. 16 seed
Cobler: Let’s just call it for what it is — Berge got hosed for his seed. He had a tremendous Big Ten Championships run to go from being the No. 10 seed, to a third place finish. He beat Iowa’s Kaleb Young, who was the No. 2 seed in the conference twice. Now, maybe he was placed 16th here because he only had a handful of matches at the weight, but he could give the top seed and defending champ in Iowa State’s David Carr a run for his money in the second round. Ultimately, Carr gets by Berge, kicking the Nittany Lion into the consolation bracket. Berge may get Young again in the consolation fourth round.
Predicted finish: 7th
Sauber: If Hildebrandt was treated unfairly in his seeding, then words don’t do justice what happened to Berge. He finished third at Big Tens, beating Kaleb Young twice on his way to doing so. Yet here he is, with a No. 16 seed at NCAAs despite being the third-best wrestler in the best conference in the nation to begin the postseason. More importantly, the top seed in the weight class is an even worse spot. Iowa State’s David Carr has to face one of the best wrestlers in the class in only the second round. Berge gets the upset, but can’t make a deep run and pushes his way to an All-American finish in the consolation bracket.
Predicted finish: 8th
Carter Starocci, 174 pounds, No. 1 seed
Cobler: Starocci is going to have some work to do if he wants to repeat as champion. He’ll get to the quarterfinals with no problems, but that’s when the road gets tough. He’ll more than likely take on Nebraska’s Mikey Labriola. The pair squared of in last year’s Big Ten semifinals with Starocci edging Labriola, 3-1, in sudden victory. Starocci gets by Labriola again here, and moves into the semifinals, where he’ll get either Iowa’s Michael Kemerer, who Starocci beat in last year’s NCAA finals, or North Carolina State’s Hayden Hidlay, who is a three-time All-American and lost to former Penn State wrestler Jason Nolf in the 2018 finals. Starocci reaches the finals where he gets Virginia Tech’s Mekhi Lewis.
Predicted finish: 2nd
Sauber: This is going to be one of the tougher paths to a repeat title Penn State has, but Starocci has the ability to win the title anyway. He’s going to have a difficult final three matches in the championship bracket, if he makes it to the finals. Nebraska’s Mikey Labriola presents a unique style that could make things difficult on Starocci before he would have to take on Iowa’s Michael Kemerer in the semifinals. Starocci has been successful against Kemerer, but the Hawkeye is one of the best in the country even with a shoulder injury that’s nagged him of late. He pulls of the win, pushing Starocci into the consolation bracket.
Predicted finish: 3rd
Aaron Brooks, 184 pounds, No. 2 seed
Cobler: Brooks, who is the defending champ here, is the No. 2 seed because he lost to Michigan’s Myles Amine in the Big Ten finals two weeks ago. He’ll have no problems reaching the semifinals, where he’ll take on North Carolina State’s Trent Hidlay, who just repeated as a ACC champion. The two squared off in last year’s NCAA finals with Brooks edging Hidlay, 3-2. Brooks sneaks by again, setting up a Big Ten finals rematch against Amine.
Predicted finish: Champion
Sauber: You’d be hard pressed to find anyone who wants to be in Brooks’ path at NCAAs. He lost the Big Ten title to Michigan’s Myles Amine and that should provide all of the motivation he needs to earn himself another national title. Brooks coasts all the way to the finals where he takes on the Michigan Wolverine in a rematch. This time, it’s the Nittany Lion who earns the victory and earns the redemption of losing the Big Ten title.
Predicted finish: Champion
Max Dean, 197 pounds, No. 1 seed
Cobler: A year ago this time, Dean had to watch the NCAA Championships, as the Ivy League canceled all sports due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This year, Dean is the No. 1 seed and looking to make it back to the finals after getting there in 2019 and suffering a loss. He’ll have no problems making the semifinals, where he’ll get Pitt’s Nino Bonaccorsi, who was in the NCAA finals last year and lost to Oklahoma State’s AJ Ferrari. Ferrari was the top ranked wrestler in this weight class all season, but a car accident in late January forced the reigning champ to miss the rest of the year.
Predicted finish: Champion
Sauber: Dean made his postseason debut for Penn State at the Big Ten Championships this season and did not disappoint, winning the conference title. Now he’s got a relatively clear path to winning a national title. Unfortunately, the wrestling world won’t be treated to a Dean matchup with the No. 1 wrestler in the class — Oklahoma State’s A.J. Ferrari — after Ferrari’s car accident that ended his season early. His absence should allow the Nittany Lion to win a title after sitting out last season when Ivy League sports were canceled when he was at Cornell.
Predicted finish: Champion
Greg Kerkvliet, 285 pounds, No. 4 seed
Cobler: Kerkvliet got the worst spot possible with his seed. Being that he is No. 4, it puts him on the same side of the bracket as Minnesota’s Gable Steveson, who is the defending champ and the surest bet to repeat. However, Kerkvliet can’t look too far ahead and toward that semifinals match with Steveson. Kerkvliet will have a tough quarterfinals match with Air Force’s Wyatt Hendrickson. Hendrickson has had a stellar season in that he’s undefeated at 24-0. Of those 24 wins, 16 of them are pins. Kerkvliet falls to Steveson in the semifinals, he’ll take on Arizona State’s Cohlton Schultz for third place.
Predicted finish: 3rd
Sauber: What could have been for Kerkvliet. He was in position to make the Big Ten finals before a sudden victory loss to Iowa’s Tony Cassioppi, after the Nittany Lion had the match under control late in the third, cost him. That would’ve pushed him into being a No. 2 or No. 3 seed, putting him on the opposite side of the bracket from the unstoppable force that is Minnesota’s Gable Steveson. The longer a heavyweight can avoid Steveson the better, and now Kerkvliet will get him in the semis. He’ll fall there and lose momentum, falling in the third place match as well.
Predicted finish: 4th
Team prediction
Cobler: The Nittany Lions are set up to have five wrestlers in the finals, which has become the norm for them as Penn State wrestlers are a combined 40-4 in the NCAA semifinals. When it comes to the finals, the Nittany Lions are 27-13 in finals bouts. All of those wrestlers in the finals and those three finishing on the podium helps Penn State claim its ninth team title in 11 years.
Predicted finish: Champions
Sauber: Four finalists might be a disappointment for Penn State, but that should be resolved by getting four champions out of the group. Penn State will face a run from Big Ten champ Michigan and even moreso from Iowa. Injuries could push the Hawkeyes down the team standings if wrestlers can’t finish the tournament out. That should be enough to open the door for yet another Penn State national championship.
Predicted finish: Champions
