Here’s a bout-by-bout breakdown of No. 2 Iowa wrestling at No. 1 Penn State
Some NCAA wrestling coaches are big supporters of a national dual championship.
It was tried a few years ago with the NWCA Dual Championship Series, but only lasted a couple of seasons.
Some would say Friday night’s Penn State-Iowa dual inside the Bryce Jordan Center could be considered the championship for the dual meet season. Both teams are undefeated, with the Nittany Lions ranked No. 1 and the Hawkeyes coming in at No. 2.
There is a historical aspect to the dual on Friday, too. Should Penn State win, coach Cael Sanderson will have earned his 100th Big Ten dual win.
Here’s a look at how we think things could go between the Nittany Lions and Hawkeyes:
125 pounds: Gary Steen vs. No. 1 Spencer Lee
Nate Cobler: Listen, Steen will be riding high coming into this matchup with the three time NCAA champion after picking up a 3-1 sudden victory upset win over Michigan State’s then-No. 24 Tristan Lujan. He’ll be brought back to earth when he steps on the mat with Lee. The Hawkeyes wrestler is a once-in-a-lifetime athlete. He’ll define this era of wrestling. His name will never be forgotten for what he has accomplished, even with the knee injuries. This one is short, sweet and to the point, much like what will happen on Friday night. Prediction: Lee by fall.
Jon Sauber: I don’t think anyone expects this dual to start off well for Penn State. The Nittany Lions don’t have a talent that can compete with Lee, which isn’t their fault. Nobody in the country has that level of talent at 125 pounds. Lee is one of the best pound-for-pound wrestlers in college, if not the best, and is well on his way to winning a national title for the fourth time. He’s wrestled 10 times this season, getting bonus points in all 10 while earning seven falls. His last two matches came against top-10 opponents and both of those, along with all of the last six, were falls. Steen is unlikely to avoid the same fate. Fortunately for Penn State, this is both the first and last match of the dual where Iowa will be a heavy favorite. The six points Iowa get are important to the Hawkeyes’ chances of an upset, but will not be a major part of the calculus for the Nittany Lions. Prediction: Lee by fall.
133 pounds: No. 1 Roman Bravo-Young vs. No. 17 Brody Teske
Cobler: These two have a history together. Teske used to be a Nittany Lion, and in his time at Penn State, the Hawkeye and RBY were roommates. On Tuesday, the two-time defending NCAA champion in Bravo-Young said that he and Teske remain close, and said Teske comes to Tucson during the summer to train with him. Even though they are close personally, they are far apart on the wrestling mat. Teske has yet to place, but he is a two-time NCAA qualifier compared to RBY’s four-time qualifying, four-time placewinner and two-time champion. Look for the champ to get some bonus back from 125. Prediction: RBY by major decision.
Sauber: While the first bout heavily favors Iowa, the second will swing back strongly to Penn State. Bravo-Young is 9-0 and has been a takedown machine once again this season. He’s 9-0 and has earned bonus points in eight of those matches. This matchup might present a challenge because Teske will likely be on the defensive throughout, which could limit the bonus potential. That being said, this is still Bravo-Young’s to lose and it would be a major upset if he didn’t walk off the mat with his hand raised Friday night. It’s not likely he gets a technical fall, but if he does that bonus point could spell a bad night for Iowa. Prediction: Bravo-Young by major decision.
141 pounds: No. 4 Beau Bartlett vs. No. 2 Real Woods
Cobler: This will be the first real test of Bartlett’s season, which is interesting to say this late in the year. This is also the first of two bouts that will feature wrestlers both in the top five of their weight class. Woods has had great success in his collegiate career. He’s a three-time NCAA qualifier, but those were all with Stanford. He’s placed as high as sixth, which was in last year’s championships. Bartlett also qualified for last year’s championships, but did so at 149 pounds, while Nick Lee finished off his Penn State career. Bartlett is at the more natural weight for him. He’s said all year that he needs to pull the trigger more — look for that on Friday night. Woods doesn’t have that deep of a gas tank yet either, so just like some Nittany Lions pulled off upsets last Friday, look for another one here. Prediction: Bartlett by decision.
Sauber: This should be one of the better matches of the night. Bartlett comes in at 14-0 but is relatively untested when it comes to high level opponents. Woods is going to easily be his toughest matchup to date this season. The opposite is true of Woods, who is 9-0 but also recently beat Nebraska’s Brock Hardy, one of the top wrestlers in the weight class. Not to mention Woods is a three-time qualifier for nationals with Stanford, where he spent the first four years of his career. Bartlett hasn’t shown to be aggressive, which should lead to a low-scoring match. I’ll lean toward the Hawkeye because of his experience, but this one is a true toss-up. Prediction: Woods by decision.
149 pounds: No. 13 Shayne Van Ness vs. No. 7 Max Murin
Cobler: Murin wrestled for Central Cambria High School in Ebensburg, which is about 68 miles away from State College. He’ll have plenty of fans in the stands, whether it be from his hometown or Iowa. He was impressive as a high school wrestler — four-time District 6 champ, four-time PIAA Southwest Regional champ, three-time PIAA finalist winning two titles. But that success hasn’t translated to the collegiate level. Yes, he’s a four-time NCAA qualifier, but he hasn’t placed. Van Ness is in his very first full-time collegiate season. He has proven he can hang with the top of the class with close losses to Wisconsin’s No. 2 Austin Gomez and Iowa State’s No. 6 Paniro Johnson. Murin has lost to those same opponents. Look for Van Ness to feed off of Bartlett’s win before him. Prediction: Van Ness by decision in sudden victory.
Sauber: Murin comes into the matchup with a higher ranking, but that feels like it’s based more on past accomplishments rather than what has unfolded this season. Murin and Van Ness share two losses, to No. 2 Austin Gomez and No. 6 Paniro Johnson, with Murin picking up his third loss against No. 4 Yahya Thomas of Northwestern. These two are relatively evenly matched based on resume this season, but Van Ness is very much on the upswing in his career. He has plenty of talent and this is the kind of victory that could give him confidence moving forward. The smart money is this matchup and the previous one being a split between Penn State and Iowa, so this one goes to Van Ness. Prediction: Van Ness by decision.
157 pounds: No. 9 Levi Haines/Terrell Barraclough vs. No. 15 Cobe Siebrecht
Cobler: This bout will not only show what’s in store for the rest of the dual, but also what the Nittany Lions’ lineup looks like for the remainder of the year and postseason. If Haines goes, his redshirt is gone, thus he should remaining in the starting lineup. Haines made quite the Bryce Jordan Center debut last week when he topped then-No. 10 Will Lewan of Michigan, 3-1, in sudden victory. He also picked off then-No. 16 Garrett Model of Wisconsin two weeks before that by way of a 16-6 major decision. Barraclough got the call in Sunday’s dual with Michigan State, which saw him drop a 6-2 loss to then-No. 15 Chase Saldate. It was Barraclough’s first action since the Oregon State dual on Dec. 11. Siebrecht enters this bout on a win like Haines. He topped Model, 3-2, last Friday. Look for Haines’ redshirt to come off, and he scores bonus points. Prediction: Haines by major decision.
Sauber: This is the only matchup that swings based on a lineup decision. Barraclough went for Penn State against Michigan State after Haines took the mat against Michigan in the match prior. It sure feels like Haines is trending toward burning his redshirt and giving it a go the rest of the season for the Nittany Lions, and it would make sense if this was the dual that decided it. He has wins over top-20 opponents in his last two bouts and him wrestling should swing this from leaning toward a Siebrecht win to Haines earning a victory. Head coach Cael Sanderson could have other plans for Haines, but if he wrestles, he should earn the victory. Prediction: Haines by decision.
165 pounds: No. 5 Alex Facundo vs. No. 13 Patrick Kennedy
Cobler: Facundo started his first season in the Penn State lineup on fire by winning his first nine matches. He had four bonus point victories in those nine — three major decisions and a technical fall. He suffered his first loss of the year, 4-2, to Iowa State’s No. 2 David Carr in the Journeymen Collegiate Duals in New Orleans right before Christmas. The redshirt freshman appeared to get injured in the bout, and didn’t see the mat again until last Friday’s match with Michigan. He earned the biggest win of his early career by edging then-No. 5 Cameron Amine, 6-5, in ultimate tiebreaker No. 2. Kennedy comes into the matchup with a loss to Wisconsin’s Dean Hamiti, who Facundo would’ve wrestled at the beginning of January. Kennedy has one more loss, 10-4 to Carr. Facundo keeps the winning ways for the Nittany Lions out of the halftime break. Prediction: Facundo by decision.
Sauber: This is another one that leans in Penn State’s favor and should be the point in the dual where the Nittany Lions begin to pull away. Facundo is an elite talent who hung strong with No. 2 David Carr in his lone loss and that came in December. He’s won his two bouts since then, including a victory over Michigan’s Cameron Amine at the Bryce Jordan Center Friday night. He knows what it’s like to be on this stage and Kennedy isn’t the level of wrestler I would expect to knock him down a peg. Again, this should be a close bout, but I still lean toward the more talented Facundo. Prediction: Facundo by decision.
174 pounds: No. 1 Carter Starocci vs. No. 15 Nelson Brands
Cobler: Starocci has one of the more interesting walkout songs in the Nittany Lions lineup. It’s the theme song to “Halloween,” which features a killer by the name of Michael Myers. Starocci has a killer mentality in that when he steps on the mat, he isn’t coming off without a win. He hasn’t lost a match since March 6, 2021 — the finals of the Big Ten Championships — to Iowa’s Michael Kemerer. He’s 10-0 this season and has just one bout that he hasn’t recorded bonus points in. He’ll take on the son of associate head coach Terry Brands. Nelson Brands has had an up and down year as he sits at 4-3. Those three losses have all been by one point with the most recent coming on Jan. 20 to Nebraska’s No. 2 Mikey Labriola. Brands will have his hands full with Starocci. Prediction: Starocci by major decision.
Sauber: Starocci is the No. 1 wrestler in the class for a reason and is once again rolling this season. He hasn’t lost while representing Penn State since the 2021 season and is dispatching opponents with relative ease this year. He has bonus points in all but one match and has been dominant more often than not. Brands is not on Starocci’s level, but his 4-3 record is misleading. His only losses have come by decision and all three have come against top-15 wrestlers in the weight class. That being said, this isn’t the matchup that’s going to help out his record. There’s a good chance Starocci racks up some bonus points here, and this one is one of the easier matchups to pick. Prediction: Starocci by major decision.
184 pounds: No. 1 Aaron Brooks vs. No. 12 Abe Assad
Cobler: Friday night will be the third matchup of these two wrestlers. It will also be almost one year to the day that they last faced off. The results have all been the same, Brooks collecting the win. The first time they wrestled was Jan. 31, 2020. Brooks won 7-3. They faced off on Jan. 28, 2022, and Brooks won 8-3. Assad is not on Brooks’ level at all. When comparing their common opponents, Brooks is 29-2 with Assad holding a 14-13 mark. The duos most recent common opponent was Wisconsin’s Tyler Dow. Brooks tallied a 16-0 technical fall on the Badger in 4:33 of wrestling on Jan. 6. Dow pinned Assad in their teams’ dual last Sunday. Brooks extends the Penn State lead even further. Prediction: Brooks by major decision.
Sauber: Yet another matchup where the question is by how much rather than who wins. Brooks is a heavy favorite, just as he is most of the time. His loss to Iowa State’s No. 4 Marcus Coleman feels more like a blip on the radar rather than a sign of things to come. Brooks is a bonus points machine and while Assad has wrestled well this season, he is susceptible to getting caught, like he did against Tyler Dow Sunday. That loss by fall is not the norm for Assad, but that doesn’t change that Brooks is the better wrestler here. I’ve got Penn State up 17-9 at this point, so a major decision would all but finalize the result of the dual. That’s what I’ve got happening. Prediction: Brooks by major decision.
197 pounds: No. 4 Max Dean vs. No. 7 Jacob Warner
Cobler: In the penultimate match of the night, it’s a rematch of last season’s 197 pound finals in Detroit. Warner was the lone Hawkeyes wrestler to make the finals last year that continued a streak of 32 straight years that an Iowa wrestler was in a NCAA final. He was also the least likely to make it there, but he did it. He’ll be looking for revenge on Dean. Ever since Dean suffered back-to-back losses at the beginning of December to Rider’s Ethan Laird and Lehigh’s Michael Beard, he’s been focused. He said sometimes he needs matches like those to snap him back to realty. Since those losses, Dean has been perfect, and given up a total of 10 points to his opponents. He’s coming off a nice win over Michigan State’s Cam Caffey, so look for the champ to continue rolling. Prediction: Dean by decision.
Sauber: This matchup of last year’s national title match at 197 pounds should be another tight one. The pressure would be on for Iowa, with two falls needed to earn the team victory on the night. Odds are Warner would be wrestling his match and not worrying about that, but if he does it could turn into an action packed bout. Dean is capable of catching opponents and earning a fall via bow and arrow and Warner’s potential aggressiveness could be used against him. More likely than that, is that this is a low-scoring tight matchup that goes Penn State’s way and seals the victory for the Nittany Lions. Dean’s success since falling to No. 8 Ethan Laird and No. 3 Michael Beard in early December tilts this one slightly in his favor. Prediction: Dean by decision.
285 pounds: No. 2 Greg Kerkvliet vs. No. 3 Tony Cassioppi
Cobler: What better way to finish off this dual than with a top-three tilt. A lot of fans think this dual could come down to these two, much like Iowa’s dual with Wisconsin did last Sunday. Cassioppi’s win at that time tied the dual up at 18-18, and since the Hawkeyes had the most dual points scored, they won the dual on that criteria. Well, Iowa will be too far behind in this one for Cassioppi to make an impact. He’s already lost to Kerkvliet this season at the All-Star Classic in Austin, TX in November. All though the bout didn’t count toward the duo’s records, it was still a step in the right direction for the Nittany Lions wrestler. The previous three times these two squared off before that match were all wins for Cassioppi. However, Kerkvliet seemed to be turning the corner in that last loss, which was the semifinals of the Big Ten Championships. Kerkvliet led Cassioppi, and went to sudden victory, where Cassioppi finished off a counter takedown for the winning score. Kerkvliet keeps the winning ways against Cassioppi. Prediction: Kerkvliet by decision.
Sauber: The last bout of the night will be Kerkvliet’s gas tank to the test, much like Friday night when Michigan’s Mason Parris did the same and earned a victory. Cassioppi has a size advantage, but Kerkvliet is the better athlete who can finish shots with a variety of attacks. Of course if he gets caught underneath Cassioppi, that lack of size could be used against him. This could be a big Kerkvliet win, or he could outright lose. I’ll give the toss-up to Kerkvliet, who responds from his struggles against Parris at the Bryce Jordan Center with an impressive victory. Prediction: Kerkvliet by decision.
Final score
Cobler: Sanderson has consistently talked about how his guys always just show up when it matters the most. Just look at the last several NCAA Championships, where Penn State has had at a minimum of four finalists every year. The Nittany Lions continue to show up for the big time and rout the Hawkeyes in a dual that could very easily go in the opposite direction with the key matchup being 157 pounds. Prediction: Penn State 31, Iowa 6.
Sauber: This one could swing in Iowa’s direction with a few key wins, but the overall talent Penn State has makes it hard to project that happening. The Nittany Lions have more paths to victory than the Hawkeyes and they involve far fewer upsets happening. Coupled with the bonus points Penn State could start racking up later in the dual and it should lead to the Nittany Lions going 2-0 at the Bryce Jordan Center this season. Prediction: Penn State 27, Iowa 9
No. 2 Iowa (12-0, 5-0 Big Ten) at No. 1 Penn State (10-0, 3-0 Big Ten)
When: 8:30 p.m. Friday
Where: Bryce Jordan Center
Radio: WRSC (93.3 FM or 1390AM)
Online: Radio, Lionvision at GoPSUsports.com; TV, Big Ten Network
Twitter: @byncobler, @pennstatewrest
This story was originally published January 26, 2023 at 11:17 AM.
