How will Penn State’s wrestling dual with Rutgers go? See our bout-by-bout predictions
After Penn State opened its Big Ten portion of the wrestling season at home two weeks ago, it’s on the road again, though this week’s trip won’t be as far as last week’s to Nebraska.
The No. 1 Nittany Lions head east to Piscataway, New Jersey, to take on No. 14 Rutgers on Friday night at 8 p.m.
Should both team’s starters make the call, it will have 10 matchups of ranked wrestlers squaring off. With the win, Penn State will continue its dual streak victories to 65.
Here’s a look at how we predict it will turn out:
125 pounds: No. 6 Luke Lilledahl (10-0) vs. No. 19 Dean Peterson (16-3)
Nate Cobler: A week ago, Lilledahl got his toughest test of the year in Nebraska’s Caleb Smith — and passed it with flying colors. Peterson is another good wrestler for the young Nittany Lion. The Scarlet Knights’ wrestler is a two-time NCAA qualifier, but is coming into this match off a loss to Wisconsin’s Nicolar Rivera. Peterson is good, but not Smith good, so look for Lilledahl to continue his winning ways. Prediction: Lilledahl by decision.
Jon Sauber: Lilledahl continued his undefeated season by taking out Smith last week and Peterson isn’t quite on that level. This is another opportunity for the Penn State 125-pounder to continue growing and prove he can make a serious run in his first postseason as a Nittany Lion. While this isn’t going to make or break Lilledahl’s season, a win over Peterson would keep building his confidence and allow him to succeed down the stretch. Prediction: Lilledahl by major decision.
133 pounds: No. 7 Braeden Davis (6-2) vs. No. 9 Dylan Shawver (14-3)
Cobler: Davis enters this one coming off a disappointing 14-7 loss to Nebraska’s Jacob Van Dee. Davis seemed like he was just throwing things to the wind and not staying poised and under control. Shawver is better than Van Dee, so Davis will have to shake the loss off and refocus. Shawver is a two-time NCAA qualifier, finishing seventh last year. A pair of his losses have come against some top wrestlers in Lock Haven’s Anthony Noto and Stanford’s Tyler Knox. Prediction: Shawver by decision.
Sauber: This is a bounce-back opportunity for Davis, who wrestled recklessly against Van Dee and cost himself the match against the Cornhusker. While he should be focused once again, there’s no guarantee that he’s able to find success against Shawver, considering he’s a two-time NCAA qualifier and a former All-American. That being said, if Davis wrestles within himself, this should be a win. Prediction: Davis by decision.
141 pounds: No. 3 Beau Bartlett (11-0) vs. No. 14 Joseph Oliveri (12-3)
Cobler: When you compare the two against common opponents, Bartlett has a perfect 25-0 mark, with Oliveri coming in at 12-6. The pair squared off in last year’s dual inside the Bryce Jordan Center, and Bartlett collected a 12-1 major decision. He was able to pull that off with the old scoring rules, too. Oliveri started his college career off with a trip to the NCAA Championships, but hasn’t been there since. His three losses have come against some tough competitors in Penn’s CJ Composto, Virginia Tech’s Sam Latona and North Carolina State’s Kai Orine. Bartlett continues that trend of giving Oliveri losses. Prediction: Bartlett by decision.
Sauber: Bartlett is going to have a big advantage against Oliveri, but he’s once again been prone to low-scoring matches this season, giving his opponents a better chance at pulling off an upset than they should have. The good news is, Oliveri is at a massive disadvantage and isn’t going to pose much of a threat to the Nittany Lion 141-pounder. While Bartlett narrowly escaped with a win over Nebraska’s Brock Hardy, he should have enough of a lead against Oliveri that he should be safe down the stretch of the match and get bonus points in the process. Prediction: Bartlett by major decision.
149 pounds: No. 4 Shayne Van Ness (10-1) vs. No. 20 Andrew Clark (17-8)
Cobler: Clark is in a tough spot here. Not only is he getting Van Ness, who is No. 4 in the country, but the Nittany Lions’ wrestler enters on a loss. Clark is just above .500 for his career mark, which includes a loss to Van Ness in November’s Black Knight Invitational. There isn’t much more to say about this one other than how many bonus points does Van Ness score. Prediction: Van Ness by technical fall.
Sauber: This begins the steamrolling for Penn State in this dual. Van Ness fell to Nebraska’s Ridge Lovett, 10-2, and is in need of a win to get himself back on track. Unfortunately for Clark, he’s in the way of that this week. It would be a surprise if the Nittany Lion doesn’t rack up bonus points in this one. Prediction: Van Ness by fall.
157 pounds: No. 3 Tyler Kasak (10-0) vs. No. 31 Conner Harer (11-5)
Cobler: A pair of Pennsylvania kids will tangle in New Jersey. Harer is in his true freshman campaign with the Scarlet Knights after winning three straight PIAA titles with Montgomery High School. He had a fifth-place finish as a freshman to be a four-time PIAA medalist. As a college wrestler, Harer has shown he can hang as four of his losses have come by a combined nine points. Kasak is wrestling even better than his true freshman campaign last year with Penn State, so look for him to welcome the younger PA wrestler to Big Ten wrestling. Prediction: Kasak by major decision.
Sauber: The middleweights are one of Penn State’s greatest strengths, and Kasak has been a hammer this season for the Nittany Lions. He’s undefeated and has yet to face one of the other top members of the weight class. And Harer’s success in high school has yet to translate to the college level to this point. Kasak should be able to pick up bonus points to keep everything rolling in Penn State’s favor. Prediction: Kasak by major decision.
165 pounds: No. 1 Mitchell Mesenbrink (12-0) vs. No. 26 Anthony White (11-5)
Cobler: Mesenbrink’s undefeated record is already impressive, but add in the fact that he’s tallied bonus points in all of his wins, and that puts him at the top of the NCAA pound-for-pound. There’s also a history here, with Mesenbrink winning all three matches these two have had. And Mesenbrink has recorded bonus points in those matches, with one coming back in November in the Black Knight Invitational. Don’t look for White to buck the trend this time around either. Prediction: Mesenbrink by technical fall.
Sauber: Mesenbrink might win the Hodge Trophy this year. He’s one of the most active wrestlers in the country and is trying to rack up bonus points in every match he has. This year that’s resulted in 10 technical falls and two forfeits. White has been good for Rutgers but he’s not the guy to slow down Mesenbrink. He’s in search of his first fall this season and I think he gets it against White. Prediction: Mesenbrink by fall.
174 pounds: No. 2 Levi Haines (10-1) vs. No. 22 Jackson Turley (10-5)
Cobler: Haines has started looking like a much larger Zain Retherford as he’s been locking in Retherford’s patented bow-and-arrow in his past several bouts. In all but one of his wins this year, Haines recorded bonus points. The match he didn’t was last week’s 9-2 win over Nebraska’s Lenny Pinto. Turley is a three-time NCAA qualifier, placing just once. Pinto is a better wrestler than Turley, and that’s saying something for Turley, who is in his sixth year of college wrestling. Prediction: Haines by major decision.
Sauber: Haines has only faced much of a push from Missouri’s Keegan O’Toole this season, losing to him by sudden victory in December. He hasn’t had much of an issue against other opponents after moving up in weight this season and while Turley is coming off a narrow 3-2 loss to Ohio State’s Carson Kharchla, he’s not in position to beat Haines. The Nittany Lion gets the win going away. Prediction: Haines by decision.
184 pounds: No. 1 Carter Starocci (11-0) vs. No. 18 Shane Cartagena-Walsh (18-5)
Cobler: Earlier this year, one of Starocci’s teammates said there’s really only one thing missing from Starocci’s career as a Nittany Lion — a Hodge Trophy. Yes, Starocci is still aiming for a historic and monumental fifth NCAA title, but with him being as competitive as he is, getting his hands on the college wrestling equivalent of the Heisman Trophy would probably suffice even without the fifth title. Just like Mesenbrink, Starocci is perfect for bonus points, with over half coming by fall. Cartagena-Walsh in his losses keeps things close, so don’t look for a fall here unless Starocci catches the Scarlet Knights’ wrestler. Prediction: Starocci by major decision.
Sauber: Starocci is on a mission for his fifth national title and isn’t going to be stopped by Cartagena-Walsh. The dual will be well in hand by this point, so it will only be a matter of how much the Nittany Lion wants to score. I’m going to guess it’ll be a lot. Prediction: Starocci by technical fall.
197 pounds: No. 4 Josh Barr (9-0) vs. No. 16 John Poznanski (11-2)
Cobler: It’s hard to compare these two as they don’t have any common opponents. One thing for sure is Barr looks like a man on a mission since he got that big win over Lehigh’s Michael Beard at the beginning of December. Barr has been nearly perfect with bonus points except his 4-1 sudden-victory win over Little Rock’s Stephen Little on Dec. 22. Poznanski is in his fifth year of college wrestling and is a three-time NCAA qualifier, placing fourth as a freshman. Even though Poznanski has the experience, he isn’t on Barr’s level. Predicition: Barr by decision.
Sauber: Poznanski has been hot and cold this year for Rutgers, with seven technical fall wins over much lower ranked wrestlers, and narrow losses and wins over those who are much closer to him in the rankings. Barr is the best wrestler he’ll face so far this season and there’s not a lot of reason to believe he’s going to be able to keep it close. It’s no guarantee that the Nittany Lion stays undefeated, but he should be able to. Prediction: Barr by decision.
285 pounds: No. 2 Greg Kerkvliet (11-0) vs. No. 7 Yaraslau Slavikouski (12-3)
Cobler: Wrestling fans didn’t get to see this matchup in last year’s dual as Kerkvliet was out. Instead, fans around the country got to see Penn State’s Lucas Cochran bump up to heavyweight and top Slaviouski, who was No. 8 in the country at the time, 7-3. Later in the year, Kerkvliet and Slaviouski did square off in the Big Ten Championship semifinals, with Kerkvliet shutting out the Belarusian, 9-0. Kerkvliet has gotten better since that point. Prediction: Kerkvliet by technical fall.
Sauber: Kerkvliet has rolled through everyone in his path this season and Slavikouski isn’t Minnesota’s Gable Steveson, the only heavyweight that I’d give a real chance of knocking off the Nittany Lion. Kerkvliet should be able to close out the dual with even more bonus points. Prediction: Kerkvliet by technical fall.
Team outlook
Cobler: Penn State leads the series against Rutgers, 25-0. The Nittany Lions are also on a 64 dual meet winning streak. Neither of these get snapped on Friday night. However, just like in last year’s dual, look for Shawver to play spoiler, and keep Penn State from recording its unprecedented fifth shutout of the season. Prediction: Penn State 36, Rutgers 3.
Sauber: Penn State may be on the road, but the Nittany Lions should be overwhelming favorites against the Scarlet Knights. There’s a world where PSU gets a shutout in Piscataway, but the Scarlet Knights will have a few chances to get a win. I just don’t think they will do it. Prediction: Penn State 43, Rutgers 0.
No. 1 Penn State (8-0, 2-0 Big Ten) at No. 14 Rutgers (10-3, 2-1 Big Ten)
When: 8 p.m. Friday
Where: Jersey Mike’s Arena, Piscataway, NJ
Radio: Big Foot Legends (103.7 & 104.3 FM)
TV: Big Ten Network
Online: Radio, Lionvision at GoPSUsports.com
X: @byncobler, @pennstatewrest
This story was originally published January 23, 2025 at 9:46 AM.
