Could Penn State wrestling suffer its first loss in 5 years? See our predictions for the Iowa dual
Friday will mark five years since Penn State wrestling dropped its last dual meet.
The team to last beat the Nittany Lions was the Iowa Hawkeyes, who come to town this Friday as the No. 2 team in country. The dual will be full of ranked wrestlers facing off in the Bryce Jordan Center, and some matches to keep an eye on will be at 157 and 197 pounds.
Here’s a look at how we think things could unfold on Friday night.
125 pounds: No. 7 Luke Lilledahl (11-1) vs. No. 26 Joey Cruz (9-6)
Nate Cobler: There are a couple of toss-up matches throughout this dual. This, however, isn’t one of them. Lilledahl comes into this one after suffering his first collegiate loss to Rutgers’ Dean Peterson last week. During Monday’s media day, coach Cael Sanderson had nothing but the utmost confidence that his true freshman would rebound. There will be a lot of energy inside the Bryce Jordan Center, and look to Lilledahl to feed off that. The pair have a common opponent in Army West Point’s Charlie Farmer, who Lilledahl racked up a technical fall on. Cruz was shut out by Farmer. Prediction: Lilledahl by major decision.
Jon Sauber: Assuming this dual starts at 125 pounds, Penn State should be a near-lock to get out to a lead. Lilledahl has been excellent during his freshman season, and despite losing to Peterson, is still in position to achieve everything he could want in his first year wrestling at Penn State. Cruz is nowhere near his level and this should lead to some bonus points for the Nittany Lions to start out. The only question is how many. Prediction: Lilledahl by technical fall.
133 pounds: No. 7 Braeden Davis (7-2) vs. No. 3 Drake Ayala (11-1)/Keyan Hernandez (1-4)
Cobler: This is one of those toss-up matches mentioned at 125 pounds, should Ayala wrestle. He missed the Hawkeyes’ 24-13 win over Ohio State last Saturday due to an injury, and severity of his injury isn’t known. Hernandez, who is listed at 125/133 pounds on Iowa’s roster, filled in but was rolled up in a 19-4 technical fall. If Ayala doesn’t go, look for Davis to feed off of Lilledahl’s bonus points. Prediction: Ayala by decision.
Sauber: I’m making the assumption that Ayala is going to take the mat for the Hawkeyes, which is not a guarantee. That being said, he and Davis going at it would produce one of the most competitive bouts of the dual, and while I’m not picking the Nittany Lion, it wouldn’t be surprising if he pulls off the upset. If Ayala doesn’t go, Davis is going to roll to a win with an extra bonus point or two to grow the Penn State lead. Prediction: Ayala by decision.
141 pounds: No. 3 Beau Bartlett (12-0) vs. Ryder Block (2-4)/Jace Rhodes (5-2)/Cullan Schriever (3-5)
Cobler: This is a bout where it doesn’t matter if Iowa throws Block, who is their best wrestler at the weight, or someone else — Bartlett is coming away with a win. He’s been wrestling all year with a different level of confidence. Look for Bartlett to come away with bonus points for the eighth time this season. Prediction: Bartlett by major decision.
Sauber: Bartlett is going to have a massive advantage regardless of who Iowa goes with at 141, but in previous years I would still go with a decision victory because he hasn’t been prone to scoring bonus points as a Nittany Lion. That’s changed this season with his bonus point percentage jumping from 38.46 last year to 58.33 this year. He should be able to score with relative ease and keep building the Nittany Lion lead. Prediction: Bartlett by technical fall.
149 pounds: No. 4 Shayne Van Ness (11-1) vs. No. 2 Kyle Parco (13-0)
Cobler: Should the dual start at 125 pounds, this will start a stretch of six bouts that will see wrestlers that are both ranked in the top 10 of their weights facing off. These two squared off in the consolation finals of the 2023 NCAA Championships with Van Ness topping Parco, who competed for Arizona State at the time, 7-2. This one will be close, but give the advantage to Van Ness. Prediction: Van Ness by decision.
Sauber: This is going to be one of the many highly-anticipated bouts in Friday night’s dual. Van Ness’ only loss is to Nebraska’s Ridge Lovett, who Parco hasn’t wrestled this season but did beat last year by a 4-3 decision. Parco has been excellent for the Hawkeyes since transferring in from Arizona State during the offseason, but Van Ness is going to be his toughest test yet. This is a toss-up, but I’ll go with the Nittany Lion in front of a packed Bryce Jordan Center crowd. Prediction: Van Ness by decision.
157 pounds: No. 3 Tyler Kasak (12-0) vs. No. 1 Jacori Teemer (3-1)/Miguel Estrada (13-0)
Cobler: Hopefully, Teemer goes for the Hawkeyes, because not only will this be an awesome matchup, but it would be a great test for Kasak with the postseason looming. Teemer is slowly working his way back to the mat after being out for some time, thus his 3-1 record. Look for the Iowa wrestler to answer the call. Prediction: Teemer by decision.
Sauber: Teemer, like Parco, joined the Hawkeyes from Arizona State and has excelled when he’s taken the mat — with his only defeat coming when he suffered an injury in November. He made his return to the mat against Ohio State on Saturday and should be ready to roll against Kasak. Still, he may have some rust to knock off still, and his only loss at NCAAs last season came against Penn State’s Levi Haines. While Haines has bumped up two weight classes since then, Kasak has done an excellent job in his place and gets the narrow win here. Prediction: Kasak by decision.
165 pounds: No. 1 Mitchell Mesenbrink (13-0) vs. No. 2 Michael Caliendo (13-0)
Cobler: No. 1 versus No. 2, how could it get any better? Well, it might not be all good for Caliendo. These two faced off three times last season, with Mesenbrink winning all three matchups. He won in the dual, 12-6. In the Big Ten semifinals, Mesenbrink racked up a 23-7 technical fall. They faced off in the NCAA semifinals, and Mesenbrink got bonus points again, 17-9. Prediction: Mesenbrink by major decision.
Sauber: A matchup between the top two at any weight class would usually be highly anticipated, but this may not be one of the three best bouts of this dual. Mesenbrink dominated Caliendo all three times they wrestled last season, and there’s little reason to believe the Hawkeye is going to have much of a chance here. This should lead to more bonus points for Penn State, with Mesenbrink getting takedown after takedown. Prediction: Mesenbrink by technical fall.
174 pounds: No. 2 Levi Haines (11-1) vs. No. 6 Patrick Kennedy (8-1)
Cobler: It’s tough to gauge these two since Haines had been down two weight classes the previous two years. Kennedy is in his third year of wrestling this weight, as he competed at it as a true freshman. Haines has proven he belongs at the weight after taking the No. 1 wrestler in the country, Missouri’s Keegan O’Toole, to sudden victory at the end of December. There won’t be any bonus points scored here by either team. Prediction: Haines by decision.
Sauber: Haines’ only loss came to No. 1 Keegan O’Toole of Missouri and even that took sudden victory. The change in weight hasn’t altered his production this season and I have little reason to believe he won’t take care of business against Kennedy. This could be a tight bout with how both have wrestled this season, but at the end of the day Haines is the better wrestler and the result will reflect that. Prediction: Haines by decision.
184 pounds: No. 1 Carter Starocci (12-0) vs. No. 5 Gabe Arnold (11-0)/Angelo Ferrari (10-0)
Cobler: This is one that everyone wants to see, if Arnold goes for Iowa. A couple of years ago, the Hawkeyes’ wrestler as a senior in high school called out Starocci. Last weekend, he made a point to make another statement about the four-time NCAA champ. Starocci responded with a joke, saying he thought Ferrari was the starter and not Arnold. Look for fireworks with either wrestler from Iowa out there, but neither come away with a win. Prediction: Starocci by decision.
Sauber: This bout has received the most publicity, and for good reason. Arnold has called out Starocci more than once and this is his first chance to put his money where his mouth is. Unfortunately for him, Starocci isn’t the one to mess with. Assuming he goes, Arnold could be in for a rough night and will likely take his first loss of the season. There could end up being fireworks in the process, but this should still be a win for Penn State’s best wrestler. Prediction: Starocci by major decision.
197 pounds: No. 4 Josh Barr (12-0) vs. No. 1 Stephen Buchanan (13-0)
Cobler: This matchup is very similar to Kasak-Teemer, but fans will be guaranteed to see the No. 1 wrestler in Buchanan. Buchanan is crafty veteran who is on his third team. He started at Wyoming, where he was a three-time NCAA qualifier and two-time placer — finishing third in 2022. Buchanan went to Oklahoma for two seasons — redshirting in one — he also had a third place finish there in last year’s NCAA championships. Barr has faced some other veterans this season and was victorious, so can he make it three solid wins over veterans? Prediction: Barr by decision.
Sauber: I think this might be the bout that solidifies just how great this Penn State team is. That’s not to diminish Buchanan or what he’s done — he’s earned his No. 1 ranking and is a legitimate contender to win a national title this season at NCAAs — but Barr has been making a name for himself of late and could establish himself as one of the next all-time greats at Penn State with a win here. This has my vote for best bout of the dual and ultimately one of the most consequential of the night. Prediction: Barr by decision.
285 pounds: No. 2 Greg Kerkvliet (12-0) vs. No. 11 Ben Kueter (10-2)
Cobler: Kueter began his career with Iowa as a two-sport athlete, suiting up as a linebacker for the football squad and then transitioning to the wrestling mat. However, this past summer, he came out and said he was dedicating himself strictly to wrestling. Kueter is coming off a pretty big for his career after topping Ohio State’s Nick Feldman in the Hawkeyes’ last dual. Kerkvliet is head and shoulders above Feldman. He’s 3-0 against the Buckeyes’ wrestler. Kerkvliet brings Kueter down from his high. Prediction: Kerkvliet by major decision.
Sauber: This weight class is a two-man race for the national title — and Kerkvliet is one of those two while Kueter isn’t. There’s no reason to pick against Kerkvliet at this point unless he’s facing Minnesota’s Gabe Steveson, and even then it should be a close one. This bout should close out a dominating victory for Penn State, setting the tone for the rest of the season. Prediction: Kerkvliet by major decision.
Team outlook
Cobler: This Penn State squad is just too good, and may stay that way for a while. Yes, Iowa is the No. 2 in the country, but the Nittany Lions are playing chess while all other teams are playing checkers. Prediction: Penn State 28, Iowa 6.
Sauber: There’s no reason to pick against Penn State at this point. This dynasty keeps on rolling and should dominate anyone in its path, including the No. 2 team in the country in Iowa. Penn State could lose the reasonable coin flips and will still win the dual. Odds are the Nittany Lions will grab a couple of those — if not all of them — and earn the blowout victory. Prediction: Penn State 35, Iowa 3.
No. 2 Iowa (9-0, 3-0 Big Ten) at No. 1 Penn State (9-0, 3-0 Big Ten)
When: 7 p.m. Friday
Where: Bryce Jordan Center, University Park
Radio: Big Foot Legends (103.7 & 104.3 FM)
TV: Big Ten Network
Online: Radio, Lionvision at GoPSUsports.com
X: @byncobler, @pennstatewrest
