Here’s a bout-by-bout preview of Penn State wrestling’s match with Nebraska
It’s safe to say that Penn State’s wrestling team hasn’t been tested so far this year.
The Nittany Lions have had seven shutouts — six in their last seven duals. They thumped rival and No. 4 Iowa in the Hawkeyes’ home arena.
No. 6 Nebraska comes to town for a dual at 8 p.m. Friday inside the Bryce Jordan Center. The Cornhuskers have all but one of their wrestlers ranked nationally by Intermat.
There is several potential top-10 matchups that could occur should each squad send out their top lineups. Here’s a bout-by-bout look at how we think it could turn out:
125 pounds: No. 1 Luke Lilledahl (13-0) vs. Alan Koehler (10-11)
Nate Cobler: This is the only weight where both wrestlers that are competing are not ranked. In Penn State’s case, they have the No. 1 ranked wrestler in the weight. Should the dual start at 125, which is the norm for duals that the Nittany Lions host, Lilledahl should get things started with a bang against Koehler. Prediction: Lilledahl by major decision.
Jon Sauber: There should be plenty of competitive bouts on Friday night, but this won’t be one of them. Lilledahl looks like he’s taken a step forward from his freshman season and has positioned himself to be the favorite at 125 pounds when the postseason rolls around. This one is just a matter of determining how many bonus points the Nittany Lion gets. Prediction: Lilledahl by technical fall.
133 pounds: No. 4 Marcus Blaze (15-0) vs. No. 10 Jacob Van Dee (12-3)
Cobler: Blaze has shown that he belongs on the college stage even though he’s a true freshman. This weight class is the deepest in the country, and the Nittany Lions wrestler has already taken out the two-time NCAA finalist in Iowa’s Drake Ayala. In fact, the Big Ten at this weight class is so deep that half of the top-10 ranked wrestlers come from the conference, which includes Van Dee. This will be a great matchup early on, but don’t look for Van Dee to pull off an upset like he did last year against Braeden Davis. Prediction: Blaze by major decision.
Sauber: Blaze has been on fire so far during his first year in college and there’s reason to believe he can make a deep run once the postseason rolls around. Until then, he’ll have to keep checking off boxes during the regular season. That continues Friday with Van Dee, who was an All-American last season. While the Husker should be more competitive than Koehler at 125, Blaze should still be able to win comfortably. Prediction: Blaze by major decision.
141 pounds: No. 12 Braeden Davis (8-1) vs. No. 4 Brock Hardy (13-4)
Cobler: Davis was expected to redshirt this year, but has since been in the Nittany Lions’ lineup since Jan. 10 after Aaron Nagao was shutdown for the season with another injury. It’s safe to say Davis is still trying to get his feet back under him even though he has had nine matches already. His second dual back Davis got to take on Iowa’s Nasir Bailey, which was a 3-2 loss. Davis rebounded from the loss, but he’ll have his hands full with Hardy, who is the reigning Big Ten champion, and was in the NCAA finals last year. Prediction: Hardy by decision.
Sauber: The first of two matchups where Penn State will be underdogs features an NCAA finalist in Hardy from last year and a 2024 Big Ten Champion in Davis. It’s worth noting that Davis has since moved up two weight classes since that Big Ten title and has been good but not great this season. He’s going to need to step up to be competitive with Hardy, and he should be able to do that even if it doesn’t result in a win. Prediction: Hardy by major decision.
149 pounds: No. 1 Shayne Van Ness (14-0) vs. No. 18 Chance Lamer (10-3)
Cobler: It’s hard to pick against Van Ness the rest of the season after the performance he had in Penn State’s dual with Maryland. He’s faced Lamer back in the 2023 Big Ten Championships when Lamer was with Michigan as a redshirt freshman. The match got called short as Lamer had to withdraw due to an injury. Since then, Lamer transferred to Cal Poly for two seasons, and is back in the Big Ten for his final collegiate season. Lamer has only been in the Cornhuskers’ lineup since the end of December. Prediction: Van Ness by major decision.
Sauber: Van Ness has been dominant this season, earning bonus points in every match including the last three which were all wins by technical fall. He has a propensity to get himself caught on occasion and have to come back, like he did against Maryland, and he hasn’t faced any of the top wrestlers at 149 pounds this season. That being said, Lamer isn’t going to be the wrestler to test him. Prediction: Van Ness by technical fall.
157 pounds: No. 3 PJ Duke (13-0) vs. No. 5 Antrell Taylor (15-2)
Cobler: This is the match that everyone wants to see, and is the first of two top-five tilts. Duke hasn’t been tested too much this season as he’s collected 10 bonus point victories with seven of those coming by way of a pin. His closest match was a 2-1 defeat of teammate Joe Sealey in the Black Knight Invitational finals back in November. Taylor is the defending 157-pound NCAA champion, so he will be the toughest test Duke will have faced this season. Taylor does have two losses though and one of them was to Logan Rozynski (9-1 on Nov. 15), who Duke won by injury default over but nearly stalled out of the match. Prediction: Duke by decision.
Sauber: This is where the fireworks should start. Duke and Taylor are both top-five wrestlers who will have a shot to win an NCAA title this season — especially after the latter already did so last year. Duke is going to have his hands full with by far his toughest matchup to this point in the season and will have a chance to get the first big pop from the crowd at the Bryce Jordan Center if he can earn the win — which I expect him to do. Prediction: Duke by decision.
165 pounds: No. 1 Mitchell Mesenbrink (15-0) vs. No. 7 LJ Araujo (11-5)
Cobler: Everyone knows who Mesenbrink is. However, Araujo is gradually making a name for himself as a redshirt freshman. Yes, Araujo has five losses on the season, but four of those losses have come against guys that currently ranked in the top-six of the weight class (Iowa’s Michael Caliendo, Oklahoma State’s Ladarion Lockett, Purdue’s Joey Blaze, who was a NCAA finalist last year at 157 pounds, Northern Iowa’s Ryder Downey). Araujo’s closest losses were sudden-victory losses to Lockett and Downey, but he was majored by Caliendo. Prediction: Mesenbrink by major decision.
Sauber: Araujo has been highly competitive most of this season and has generally wrestled well against some tough opponents — but Mesenbrink is a tier above those wrestlers. The Nittany Lion is cruising through the regular season and is going to have a real chance at the Hodge Trophy when this season ends. Mesenbrink is looking at another undefeated season and I don’t see Araujo standing in the way . Prediction: Mesenbrink by major decision.
174 pounds: No. 1 Levi Haines (14-0) vs. No. 4 Christopher Minto (14-3)
Cobler: Haines has only one win this year that he hasn’t scored bonus points in. It was two weeks ago when he topped Iowa’s Gabe Arnold, 4-2. Since then, the Penn State wrestler has earned three straight technical falls, outscoring his opponents, 59-13. Minto, who is up a weight from last year, didn’t give up too many points in his three losses. He’s had two, 2-1, losses — one to Iowa’s Patrick Kennedy and the other to former Penn State and current Oklahoma State wrestler Alex Facundo. Prediction: Haines by decision.
Sauber: When Minto wrestles highly-ranked opponents, they tend to be low-scoring affairs. He’s been outscored 9-3 in his three losses and has proven difficult to score on this season. While that hasn’t been an issue for Haines this year for the most part, this bout could look like the one against Arnold. It wouldn’t be a surprise if this matchup is tighter than anticipated, but is also never really in doubt for Haines. Prediction: Haines by decision.
184 pounds: No. 1 Rocco Welsh (13-0) vs. No. 6 Silas Allred (12-5)
Cobler: Welsh started his first season with the Nittany Lions in dominant fashion recording two technical falls and three major decisions. However, his offense seemed to go stagnant during the Lehigh match up to the Rutgers dual. Since the Rutgers match, and the 2-1 tiebreaker win over then-No. 1 Angelo Ferrari of Iowa, Welsh has been dominating his opponents again. Allred has seemed to gone stagnant overall after he burst onto the scene as a redshirt freshman when he defeated Penn State’s Max Dean in the Big Ten finals in 2023. Prediction: Welsh by decision.
Sauber: Adding Welsh from Ohio State has been a massive addition to the Penn State lineup. He filled a spot that likely would’ve gone to Zack Ryder, who has since transferred to Oklahoma State and is 10-5 on the year, and hasn’t looked back since. He’s in a good position to contend for a national title and Allred, who’s in his sixth year at Nebraska, will be a good test for him Friday night. But not one that should really challenge him. Prediction: Welsh by major decision.
197 pounds: No. 1 Josh Barr (12-0) vs. No. 9 Camden McDanel (14-4)
Cobler: This top-10 matchup has a history as the two squared off against one another twice last year. Barr won both matches by technical fall. The first came in the dual with the No. 1 wrestler rolling to a 19-4 win. The other matchup was the Big Ten quarterfinals with Barr tallying a 17-2 victory. Prediction: Barr by technical fall.
Sauber: Don’t be fooled by the fact that this matchup features two top-10 wrestlers. This one shouldn’t be close. Barr has dominated this season and has dominated McDanel and there’s no real reason to expect otherwise Friday. He should roll to an easy bonus point win. Prediction: Barr by technical fall.
285 pounds: No. 12 Cole Mirasola (12-2) vs. No. 4 AJ Ferrari (8-2)
Cobler: This should be a fun one to finish off the dual. Mirasola has been on a tear since suffering back-to-back losses to Lehigh’s Nathan Taylor and Wyoming’s Christian Carroll. Since posting a 4-3 upset of then-No. 5 Ben Kueter of Iowa, the Nittany Lions wrestler posted back-to-back first period technical falls and a pin. Everyone knows who Ferrari is because of his antics on and off the mat for all of his collegiate career. It’ll be interesting to see how these two match up. Prediction: Ferrari by decision.
Sauber: Mirasola got a confidence-boosting win when he defeated Kueter, but has been a mixed bag at times this season. Of late, things have trended well for him against much lower-ranked wrestlers, which should help his confidence against Ferrari who is ... uh ... mercurial to say the least. This bout should come at the end of the dual with the win easily in hand for Penn State. Mirasola could ride that wave and pull off the upset, but it’s hard to envision that happening. Prediction: Ferrari by decision.
Team outlook
Cobler: As much as Penn State steamrolled through Iowa, I don’t see the same thing happening here with Nebraska. The Cornhuskers have a chance of being the highest scoring team against the Nittany Lions this year, which would surpass Wyoming, who recorded seven dual points during the Dec. 13 match. However, Nebraska doesn’t record any bonus points in their two bout victories to get to six points. Prediction: Penn State 30-6.
Sauber: There isn’t a team in the country that can compete with Penn State in duals or tournaments and the fact that the highest-scoring output against the Nittany Lions in a dual is seven is both hilarious and a testament to how much better this program is than everyone else. Nebraska should get wins in the two bouts it’s favored in, but that’s it. Prediction: Penn State 33-7.
No. 6 Nebraska (9-5, 2-2 Big Ten) at No. 1 Penn State (11-0, 5-0 Big Ten)
When: 8 p.m. Friday
Where: Bryce Jordan Center
Radio: Big Foot Legends (103.7 & 104.3 FM)
TV: None
Online: Streaming, Big Ten+; Radio, Lionvision at GoPSUsports.com
X: @byncobler, @pennstatewrest
