4 Penn State takeaways from the bracket release of the NCAA Wrestling Championships
The brackets for the 2026 NCAA Wrestling Championships were released Wednesday night, and all 10 Penn State qualifiers found out their seeds.
Here are four takeaways from the bracket release and what it means for Penn State.
Marcus Blaze gets a good draw at 133 pounds
The bracket at 133 pounds was one of the most highly-anticipated of any weight because of the strength at the top. The top four are extremely strong, with Oklahoma State’s Jax Forrest, Ohio State’s Ben Davino, Virginia Tech’s Aaron Seidel and Penn State’s Marcus Blaze all looking like they can go on a title run. Fortunately for Blaze, his semifinal matchup is lining up to be against Davino, whom he has already defeated this year.
Of course, he also lost to Davino in the finals at Big Tens, but Penn State’s 133-pounder is more than capable of winning a rubber match between the two — and that’s if the Buckeye isn’t knocked off by Illinois’ Lucas Byrd in the quarters. Blaze is looking at Iowa’s Drake Ayala in the quarters, whom he’s 2-0 against this season. A run to the semis is looking like a strong possibility for the Penn State freshman.
Braeden Davis’ and Cole Mirasola’s weeks could go any number of ways
There isn’t a more volatile wrestler on Penn State’s roster than Braeden Davis at 141 pounds. He nearly defeated No. 3 seed Brock Hardy in a dual last month before getting pinned by him. And it just so happens that Hardy is likely going to be Davis’ matchup in the second round if both wrestlers get there. Davis could easily knock him off and go on a real run, potentially even to the semifinals. He could also lose to Utah Valley’s Haiden Drury in the first round and get bounced in the consolation bracket to go 0-2.
Heavyweight Cole Mirasola is far more consistent than Davis, but his bracket is shaping up to be interesting. In the second round, he’s looking at Iowa’s Ben Keuter, whom he’s already defeated, before undefeated No. 1 seed Yonger Bastida of Arizona State would be waiting in the quarters. Bastida has been largely dominant this season, as he’s beaten three of the Big Ten’s best this year in Wisconsin’s Braxton Amos, Ohio State’s Nick Feldman and Keuter. All three of those matches were tight, and there’s a chance Mirasola could wrestle him close, too. An upset there, as unlikely as it may be, would really shake up the entire bracket at 285.
Plenty of potential Penn State-Oklahoma State matchups
This could be a fun tournament for fans who have wanted coach David Taylor’s Oklahoma State Cowboys to face Penn State in a dual. Several PSU wrestlers have a good chance to face Oklahoma State wrestlers at various points throughout the tournament.
Penn State’s Luke Lilledahl could see Troy Spratley in the quarters at 125. A final between Marcus Blaze and Oklahoma State’s Jax Forrest at 133 is possible. PSU’s Shayne Van Ness and Casey Swiderski are set to face off if seeds hold in the quarters at 149. PJ Duke and the Cowboys’ Landon Robideau are lined up to wrestle in the semis at 157 if Robideau pulls off a slight upset as a No. 5 seed. The same is true of the Nittany Lions’ Mitchell Mesenbrink and Ladarion Lockett at 165. Levi Haines would face former teammate Alex Facundo, now of Oklahoma State, in the quarters if seeds hold.
That’s six matchups between Penn State and Oklahoma State that are decently likely. Maybe the dual will never happen, but this could be the next best thing.
Seven individual titles may be possible — but unlikely
Penn State is coming in with seven No. 1 seeds and eight wrestlers with legitimate chances to win individual national titles — and it’s on the table that at least seven pull it off. It would be a surprise if Mitchell Mesenbrink and Josh Barr (197 pounds) don’t get titles, while Luke Lilledahl, Shayne Van Ness, PJ Duke and Levi Haines all come in as favorites at their weights. That’s six wrestlers who, on their own, are the most likely win their title at their respective weights.
Rocco Welsh is the other No. 1 seed, but he’s going to be dealing with a difficult weight class and has wrestled some tight matches this season. If he’s the favorite, it’s by a narrow margin. And Marcus Blaze, while he may be one of the best wrestlers on the roster, is going through a difficult class. His fortunate path will help, but he’ll still likely have to beat Ohio State’s Ben Davino and then one of Jax Forrest or Aaron Seidel to earn a title.
The safe guess at this point is that the two prohibitive favorites take care of business, and at least two of the other five seeds win titles. All of that is to say, is that four national titles seems like a below-average outcome for Penn State — and winning many more is not at all unreasonable.
