Can Penn State wrestling win another national title? Here are our individual projections, predictions
College wrestling fans, rejoice — it’s “March Matness” time.
With the nation’s best wrestlers all at the Quicken Loans Arena this weekend at the NCAA Wrestling Championships, vying to establish themselves as the best in their sport, it’s hard not to get excited.
Reigning national champion Penn State, which is returning five individual champions, has a giant “X” on its back, as everyone will be gunning for the opportunity to take out the top dogs.
Will the Nittany Lions be able to repeat their success from last year? Well, we decided to poll our resident wrestling experts to find out.
Where will each Penn State wrestler finish? Here are our predictions and projections:
133 pounds: Corey Keener (unseeded)
Josh Moyer: No place
If Keener can come away with just one win Thursday, it should be looked upon as a victory for Penn State. Keener is facing a familiar opponent in the opening match in Pitt’s Dom Forys — who beat him in the last two NCAA championships. There’s no reason to think this one will be any different, and then Keener will likely face either Lehigh’s Scott Parker or Ohio’s Cameron Kelly in the first round of wrestlebacks. Both of those potential opponents are ranked within the top 20 by WrestleStat and Keener is not so great against the top guys: He’s just 2-8 against top-40 wrestlers, and he hasn’t beaten anyone in the top 30. Expect a quick exit by Keener, and expect the title to be taken by the top seed, South Dakota State’s Seth Gross.
Lauren Muthler: No place
I’m going to go out on a limb and say the third time’s a charm for the senior transfer, who seems to be peaking at just the right time. Forys is certainly a winnable matchup for Keener, and I think he’ll eke out the narrow victory. That will set him up for a bout against another fellow Pennsylvanian in Lehigh’s No. 6 Scott Parker, which I’m giving to the Mountain Hawk. Keener would then have to win about three more times to complete his goal of becoming an All-American, which will be tough in a bracket that could pit him against Illinois’ Dylan Duncan, who beat Keener by major decision at Big Tens. I think he’ll fall short of becoming an All-American, but not before picking up some bonus in that first consolation match.
141 pounds: Nick Lee (No. 8 seed)
Josh Moyer: Seventh place
If all goes according to plan, Lee will square off against top seed Bryce Meredith of Wyoming in the quarterfinals. So, yeah, this isn’t an easy bracket — especially with maybe a half-dozen wrestlers who have the ability to win this one. Lee is incredibly focused for a true freshman, but I just don’t like his draw. Any way he goes, he’ll essentially have to record two upsets just to finish better than fifth. Right now, I have him facing N.C. State’s Kevin Jack in wrestlebacks, losing that in a decision and then finding himself in the seventh-place bout. Even if he manages to win that bout in wrestlebacks, he’d still likely advance to face Ohio State’s Joey McKenna or Clarion’s Brock Zacherl — who both handed him losses this season. As far as who’ll win it all? I’m going with Cornell’s Yianni Diakomihalis.
Lauren Muthler: Eighth place
As the No. 8 seed, the freshman isn’t going to have any room for error if he wants to become an All-American in his NCAA tournament debut. Every match will be important, and he’ll have tough ones right off the bat. Although he beat his first two likely opponents — Maryland’s Ryan Diehl and Northern Iowa’s Josh Alber — by bonus points in their last matchups, neither is an assured victory. And once he gets past them, his road just gets tougher, as he’d next face Meredith, who’s been wrestling like a true national championship contender. I see Lee dropping into the semifinals, where he could have a chance to avenge his Big Ten tournament loss to Illinois’ Michael Carr. I think he’ll do that, then drop the match to Jack and wrestle for seventh. I see Lee just making it as an All-American.
149 pounds: Zain Retherford (No. 1 seed)
Josh Moyer: Champion
If there’s a “sure thing” in this tournament, Retherford is it. (It’s difficult to find a weakness in a wrestler who hasn’t lost in nearly three full years.) The Pennsylvania native needs just two more pins to set the all-time falls record at Penn State, and he’s a title short of becoming the Nittany Lions’ second-ever three-time champ. Retherford will likely make history this week, so just enjoy one final ride on the Zain Train.
Lauren Muthler: Champion
Retherford will blow through his bracket with considerable ease, tying and then breaking Penn State’s all-time pins record probably by Friday, then becoming the Nittany Lions’ second three-time national champ on Saturday. He’ll likely face Iowa’s Brandon Sorensen (unless Arizona State’s Jason Tsirtis makes the ultimate comeback and upsets him in the quarterfinals) again in the finals. Retherford will try to turn him, but Sorensen’s been tough on bottom, and I think he’ll keep it to a decision.
157 pounds: Jason Nolf (No. 3 seed)
Josh Moyer: Champion
Sure, it’s natural to question whether the defending champ is really 100 percent healthy — or whether he’ll be a little tentative on the mat. But, pound for pound, he remains one of the best wrestlers in the country and was a serious Hodge Trophy contender before his injury. So, quite frankly, I don’t think he needs to be at 100 percent to win this. He doesn’t have an easy road to the title: He’ll have to beat Iowa’s Michael Kemerer, Missouri’s Joseph Lavallee and N.C. State’s Hayden Hidlay — three opponents who lost a combined two matches this season. He’ll likely see Kemerer in the quarterfinals, so that Friday morning bout should let us know whether Nolf has a championship run in him. And I think he does.
Lauren Muthler: 3rd place
Betting against Nolf is not something I’d encourage, but I’m not convinced the junior is healthy enough to defend his title. He wrestled a bit tentative at Big Tens, and that leads me to wonder how serious his injury might actually be. I think Kemerer, after his Big Ten disappointment and poor seed placement, could be wrestling with some extra motivation and knock Nolf out into consolation round. There, I think Nolf would have a pretty clear path to third, his biggest roadblock being Michigan’s Alec Pantaleo. That would leave the bracket open for the undefeated freshman from Lewistown, Hidlay, to take it all and set up the chance to become a four-time national champ — until next year.
165 pounds: Vincenzo Joseph (No. 3 seed)
Josh Moyer: Runner-up
Can lightning strike twice for Joseph? Nittany Lions fans would love to see another fall against Illinois’ Isaiah Martinez — but I’m not counting on it this time around. Joseph will have to avoid getting caught on the inside to get past Rutgers’ Richie Lewis and Virginia Tech’s David McFadden to ensure the rematch, and that’ll be hard enough. Toss in the fact that this is Martinez’s final crack at the title, and it’s hard envisioning him not taking it up a few notches. Martinez is 3-1 all-time against Joseph, with all three of those wins coming in low-scoring decisions. It’ll likely be more of the same again this year.
Lauren Muthler: Runner-up
It’s hard to find two more confident wrestlers than Joseph and Martinez, and both are fully expecting to leave Cleveland with a national title. For Joseph, the confidence can sometimes be a bad thing, and result in him getting headlocked. However, I believe Joseph fully respects Martinez’s ability, as evidenced by the smart match he wrestled against him at Big Tens, in which he really only lost by a few seconds of riding time. I think Joseph has gotten most of his kinks worked out and will stay off his back this week to set up another finals rematch with Martinez. Having only lost twice in his entire career, Martinez is a special wrestler who will cap off an exceptional career with a third national title on Saturday — with the only blemishes to his record being Nolf and Joseph.
174 pounds: Mark Hall (No. 2 seed)
Josh Moyer: Champion
Who wouldn’t want to see a championship match between Hall and Arizona State’s Zahid Valencia? The two have faced each other twice already in their young careers, once in last season’s NCAA semifinals and once in the NWCA All-Star Classic this past November. Hall won the semifinals match 4-3, and Valencia won the exhibition 3-2. A bout between these two is virtually a coin-flip, but Hall is a little heavier this year, a little more confident and is watching his diet a little more — and I think he’ll notice the dividends of that on Day 3.
Lauren Muthler: Champion
I can’t explain what it is, but Hall just always seems to find a way to win. His road to the title last year included a tight, controversial win over Valencia in the semifinals, and another tight, controversial win over Ohio State’s Bo Jordan in the finals. And when it comes to March, betting against Penn State in close situations is not the smartest idea — and there’s no closer situation this year than the probable finals match between Hall and Valencia. The two are both undefeated this season, with wins over several common opponents, including Jordan, Myles Amine and Jordan Kutler. Valencia has the slight advantage in strength of schedule, having beaten seven top-10 opponents to Hall’s five, giving him the edge in the seedings. But, really, these two are as close as it gets. Either outcome of this match wouldn’t be surprising but I think that again, Hall will find a way to win.
184 pounds: Bo Nickal (No. 1 seed)
Josh Moyer: Champion
If Retherford is the tournament’s “sure thing,” Nickal isn’t too far behind. According to Sportsbook.com, Nickal is a 1-to-5.5 favorite to win the championship — which pegs the implied probability of his title at nearly 85 percent. That’s the best odds of any wrestler outside of Retherford. The last time Nickal lost to a competitor not named Myles Martin was 795 days ago, so the floor here should be runner-up. He and Martin, the No. 2 seed from Ohio State, are favored to meet in the title bout. But Nickal is 6-2 against him. Feel free to ignore all the numbers, though, and just remember this: Nickal still uses his 2016 runner-up finish as motivation. So, if he sees Martin again, he’ll do everything he can to avoid a repeat of 2016 and cement a repeat of 2017.
Lauren Muthler: Champion
Nickal and Martin are again on a crash course for each other (though I wouldn’t entirely count out Lehigh’s No. 3 Ryan Preisch). The Nittany Lion may have beaten the Buckeye twice this year, but Nickal has never gone a full year without losing to Martin. So if history repeats itself, Martin will take this season’s rubber match on Saturday. However, I do think Nickal has established himself as the better wrestler. He has more ways to score and scrambles well against Martin. Nickal is also a competitor, and he’ll know how important this match is for the team race. I think he’ll come up with bonus.
197 pounds: Shakur Rasheed (No. 5 seed)
Josh Moyer: Third place
Rasheed is easily the Nittany Lions’ biggest wild card this week. He acknowledged he put too much pressure on himself at Big Tens, and it showed in his performance. So how will he stay loose on an even bigger stage at nationals? It’s easier said than done, Rasheed said, so maybe no other wrestler — in any weight class — is more capable of pulling off the upsets while, at the same time, capable of getting upset. Rasheed should have no problem winning Thursday, but it’ll get more difficult Friday — and I’m projecting a loss against eventual champion Kollin Moore (Ohio State) in the evening. That should jolt him into focus, and he’ll use wrestlebacks to secure a spot at the podium along with All-America status.
Lauren Muthler: Fifth place
To me, Rasheed’s draw is tough. He’ll have to get past North Carolina State’s No. 4 Mike Macchiavello just to make it to the semifinals. Though the slight upset is certainly possible for Rasheed, Macchiavello is a larger 197, which seems to be the type of guy Rasheed struggles with most. Like what happened in his match with Moore, I think Rasheed will struggle to get any offense going with Macchiavello. I think he’ll drop into consolations, where I could see him running into trouble in the semifinals where he’d likely face either Jared Haught or Ben Darmstadt, who he lost to earlier. But I think he’ll rally for a solid fifth-place finish. Not bad for a guy who started out the year as a backup.
Heavyweight: Nick Nevills (No. 3 seed)
Josh Moyer: Third place
This has less to do with Nevills and more to do with the two wrestlers seeded above him. Michigan’s Adam Coon and Ohio State’s Kyle Snyder are just on another level; Nevills is the next wrestler on the next tier. His ceiling is probably third place, and his floor is fourth. He’s solid, consistent — and he’s lost 20 pounds since January. That added stamina should be easy to spot in this tournament, and it should help him cruise to a solid finish.
Lauren Muthler: Third place
Nevills really established himself at Big Tens as the best heavyweight wrestler not named Snyder or Coon, and I think he’ll show much of the same at NCAAs. I predict he’ll beat N.C. State’s Michael Boykin handily to avenge his Southern Scuffle loss and will get past Hofstra’s Mike Hughes to set up the rematch with Coon in the semifinals. I think Nevills will wrestle a much better match against Michigan’s No. 2 seed than he did when he dropped an 8-0 decision to him in January, but ultimately fall into the consolation round. There, I think nobody will stop him on his way to a third-place finish.
This story was originally published March 14, 2018 at 11:34 PM with the headline "Can Penn State wrestling win another national title? Here are our individual projections, predictions."