Still plan to have a big Thanksgiving in Centre County this year? Don’t, experts say — here’s why
Penn State’s Matthew Ferrari, a researcher at the Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, is skipping his usual Thanksgiving celebration this year.
Instead, due to the worsening COVID-19 pandemic, he’s staying at home with his partner and two dogs — and he’s hoping most Centre County residents choose to do the same.
“It’s unfortunate, and it’s a bummer for a lot of us,” Ferrari said Monday. “A lot of us have built our culture and our engagement around this special meal that we have on a Thursday in November, but this is the year to recognize that meal probably isn’t the top priority.”
Ferrari certainly isn’t alone in his fears of increased COVID-19 risk. White House coronavirus advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said as early as October he would eschew his normal Thanksgiving routine with family, and Dr. Rachel Levine — Pennsylvania’s Secretary of Health — “advised” against Thanksgiving gatherings on Monday.
It’s not hard to see why. Right before the holidays, the coronavirus has surged to unprecedented levels, from daily cases in the commonwealth that never reached 3,000 before November to daily cases that routinely surpass 6,000 now. And many experts believe a holiday where multiple households gather under one roof will only make it worse.
In Canada, where the country’s Thanksgiving takes place in the second week of October, daily cases saw significant spikes two weeks after the holiday. In the U.S., where Thanksgiving is still days away, about 1.2 million people became infected just over the last seven days.
“My biggest concern right now is the rising rates with Thanksgiving ahead,” said Dr. David Rubin, director of PolicyLab at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia. “And people just need to hunker down and really have those serious conversations about whether it’s going to be safe enough to get extended family together. I mean, every age group is impacted this way.”
Added Ferrari: “It’s still not too late to not have it in person.”
What’s the risk?
If you’re planning on attending a 10-person Thanksgiving dinner in Centre County, there’s a 22% chance at least one guest has COVID-19, according to an event-risk assessment tool developed by Georgia Tech.
It’s exceedingly difficult to estimate how many other guests might become infected at the meal, but some Thanksgivings might see everyone get sick. Some, with one positive COVID-19 patient, might see no spread. But an infected person can easily transmit the virus to someone at work, church, school or shopping — and the vicious cycle continues.
That, coupled with Pennsylvania’s alarming 11.1% positivity rate, is why Levine and Gov. Tom Wolf issued a stay-at-home advisory earlier in the week. New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy offered similar advice last week.
“We are advising against gatherings with people who are not part of your immediate household,” Levine said. “The governor and I know this is very challenging, this is very difficult, especially with Thanksgiving this week and other holidays coming later. But having someone in your home who does not live with you, who is not part of your household even if they’re a part of your extended family or your close friends, it puts your entire household at risk.
“It puts you and your family’s health at risk.”
The concern isn’t just an explosion in cases but the accompanying ripple effect. More Thanksgiving gatherings mean more cases, which means more hospitalizations a few weeks later. That also means more deaths.
Mount Nittany Medical Center already has 30 simultaneous hospitalizations as of Tuesday and, according to the state’s hospital preparedness dashboard, has fewer than 10 available ICU beds.
If a hospital becomes overburdened, patients who need other medical attention could experience a delay in treatment, or could even be diverted to another medical center. Deaths could rise as a result. Nurses could also experience burnout. That’s been the worst-case scenario since the start of the pandemic — and never has the country, commonwealth and county been closer to it.
“We encourage you to avoid large gatherings and choose approaches that protect you and your family’s health and safety,” Dr. Nirmal Joshi, chief medical officer of Mount Nittany Health, said in a written statement Friday. “We all need to do what we can to keep ourselves and each other safe.”
Centre County saw an average of two COVID positive inpatients in September, 11 in October and 18 so far in November. There were 11 COVID-19 deaths in the first 30 weeks of the pandemic; there has been twice that — 22 — in the last six weeks, as confirmed by the county coroner’s office.
Having Thanksgiving anyway? How to stay safer
Despite the warnings, the risks and the science, many families are still expected to gather Thursday.
An Ohio State poll, conducted between Oct. 29 and Nov. 2, found that nearly 2 in 5 Americans will likely attend a gathering with either more than 10 people or with people from outside their household. A University of Michigan poll, conducted in August but published Monday, found that about 1 in 3 parents believe the benefits of gathering with extended family are worth the risk of COVID-19.
Although the hope is that such gatherings will be limited in Centre County, there’s no denying some of those Thanksgivings will still take place. Here are some of the guidelines from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for those gatherings:
- Wear a mask while not eating
- Avoid going in and out of areas where food is being prepared
- Use single-use options like condiment packets, paper plates and disposable utensils
- Open widows or doors, if possible. Use a window fan in one of the open windows to help pull fresh air in
- Bring your own food and/or drink
- Clean and disinfect frequently touched surfaces
- Wash your hands often, for at least 20 seconds, or use hand sanitizer with at least 60% alcohol
- Stay at least 6 feet apart from anyone who does not live with you
More suggestions can be found on the CDC’s website, which also suggests alternatives like a virtual Thanksgiving or simply staying home.
Rubin suggested skipping the hors d’oeuvres, potentially holding a cocktail hour outside (if it’s warm enough) and keeping children from the older folks by at least 10-15 feet. But, he emphasized, the safest way is to simply celebrate only with members of your own household.
“The optimism is that we’ve got great vaccines coming,” Rubin said. “But the worst of this pandemic is in the next eight weeks, right through the holiday season. These are the big crunch-time decisions.”
The problem, Ferrari added, is that one family choosing to hold a large Thanksgiving dinner doesn’t just impact that family. It has the potential to impact the entire community.
That’s why the Penn Stater said he’s skipping his usual dinner with friends — because, by missing it, he feels he’s making that nurse’s job over at Mount Nittany a little bit easier, or at least not any harder.
“It’s a time when everybody is frustrated and tired and fatigued from these restrictions,” Ferrari said. “Everybody — a lot of us — have been looking forward to this event, looking forward to sharing time with family and friends. And we’re being told yet again we can’t do it.
“But now is the most important time to stay focused and stay vigilant on keeping ourselves, our family, our friends and our community safe. Because we know there’s a future with a vaccine — it’s just not here yet.”
