Penn State’s COVID-19 cases see minor increase, as cautious optimism grows in Centre County
The commonwealth of Pennsylvania may have experienced a single-day high of COVID-19 cases Friday, but Penn State’s case count and the county’s positivity rate didn’t follow suit — and one expert now believes Centre County could weather the rest of the year better than most other counties.
Penn State, the catalyst for much of the county’s cases, has experienced 119 new cases since the last COVID-19 dashboard update, a small increase from Tuesday’s 86 and the seventh straight update where cases have numbered less than 140.
The official case total at University Park now stands at 4,087 while university estimates put the number of active cases at 234.
With this week’s accompanying decrease in county testing positivity — which was somewhat unexpected — and with students set to leave campus Nov. 20, the lead investigator of a COVID-19 projection model now believes the county might be better positioned to weather next month compared to most of the state.
“Overall, as I look at the deteriorating situation across the state, I’m more optimistic about Centre County, given what’s about to play out in the next few weeks, which is kids leaving campus,” said Dr. David Rubin, director of PolicyLab at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia. “I think Centre is going to be one of these places that defies the rules a little bit in December due to the changing demographics of the region.”
Rubin cautioned Friday morning that it’s possible this week’s good news could be an anomaly, as one week alone does not signify a trend and there could be a slight increase next week as a result of Halloween parties. But with increased antigen testing, messaging that appears to be taking hold and other factors, the county could continue to see longer-term rates hold steady — or at least not rise as sharply as the rest of the state.
The COVID-19 cases at University Park didn’t suggest otherwise this week. From last Friday to Thursday, according to the university’s twice-weekly COVID-19 dashboard update, 136 students tested positive out of the 1,436 on-demand tests with results (with 298 tests since Oct. 16 still pending), while nine students tested positive out of the 1,863 random-screened tests with results (with 311 tests pending). Two new employees also tested positive during that same time frame.
Some 47 University Park students are now in on-campus isolation for confirmed infections, while another 43 are in quarantine for potential infections — compared to 48 and 67, respectively, on Tuesday.
“With two weeks of on-campus learning remaining for the fall semester, we are calling on all of our students to be forward-thinking with their actions so that they don’t unknowingly carry the virus home to their families and local communities,” Penn State President Eric Barron said in a written statement.
That’s not to say no concern remains, even after students head home. According to data provided by the Mount Nittany Medical Center, there are currently 17 patients hospitalized, the same number as last week and a significant rise from September. (Hospitalizations more than tripled in October compared to September, going from 16 to 58.)
The hospital has already implemented its Surge Capacity Plan but, with students leaving in two weeks in addition to changing data, Rubin said he expected those numbers to likely decline before the New Year as the population density — and risk — decreases.
“The real question, to me, is what’s your plan for January when the students come back?” Rubin asked, adding that any county progress could be wiped out if the university does not improve upon its fall reopening plan.
That’s been a question by the Penn State community for quite some time. The university’s Faculty Senate passed a resolution last month, calling on Penn State to provide more COVID-19 testing, greater transparency and universal pre-arrival testing before the spring semester — requests that have been echoed by groups such as the American Association of University Professors and the Coalition for a Just University.
The university has also announced it will test all students who want to be tested prior to leaving for Thanksgiving break Nov. 20. Students can now book a testing appointment, with testing offered Nov. 12-19 at University Park, although CJU/PSU has petitioned for such testing to be made mandatory — a move AAUP supports.
“To stop the spread of COVID we need to think about spring plans,” Michelle Rodino-Colocino, chapter president of the AAUP, said Friday. “We need to test everyone, including all students, before they arrive back on campus in the spring and make sure positive people isolate before returning.
Added Sarah Townsend, an organizer for CJU/PSU: “Looking ahead, the return of students in January is going to be incredibly risky given the likelihood that the pandemic will continue to pick up steam over the winter.” She also called for universal pre-arrival testing, 10% daily surveillance testing and other improved protocols.
From March to mid-August, before the official Penn State student move-in, the county had 392 total cases of the coronavirus. Since then, it’s added another 4,108 cases — with most coming in the State College area.
Based on the state’s early warning monitoring system, which is updated every Friday and remains clearly impacted by the student population, the county is seeing key metrics move in the right direction. Centre County’s testing positivity rate fell to 5.6% Friday after reaching 6.1% last week. The county’s incidence rate has also decreased from last week, to 146.6 infections per 100,000 residents over the last seven days compared to last week’s 175.1.
Still, Rubin was adamant that Centre County can’t afford to relax and suddenly let up in its mitigation efforts. When temperatures grow colder, he said, cases of COVID-19 tend to be more severe and ventilator use increases.
“I would encourage people to keep doing the same stuff,” he said. “Mask. Social distance. And be careful about holiday parties and Thanksgiving; you’re not at a positivity rate of 1%.”
Elsewhere at Penn State, on other campuses, the impact of COVID-19 has varied. To date, there have been 374 total cases at campuses outside of the main campus: Altoona (237), Erie (31), Harrisburg (22), Hershey (19), Scranton (15), Berks (11), Abington (9), Mont Alto (6), Fayette (4), Beaver (3), Brandywine (3), Hazleton (3), New Kensington (3), Schuylkill (3), Lehigh Valley (2), DuBois (1), Wilkes-Barre (1) and York (1). Altoona, which had an outbreak in late September, had two new cases from Friday to Thursday.
Twenty-three Penn State employees so far — 15 at University Park, four at Altoona and one each at Abington, Erie, New Kensington and York — have tested positive through the university.
The case counts reported by the county, via the state Department of Health, and Penn State often don’t match up because the university has acknowledged there is some lag between when it reports the numbers to the state DOH and when the state DOH releases the numbers publicly.
Penn State’s next update to its COVID-19 dashboard will occur sometime Tuesday.
