Republicans are gaining ground in Pennsylvania. See where voter registration is shifting
This article is part of U.S. Democracy Day, a nationwide collaborative on Sept. 15, the International Day of Democracy, in which news organizations cover how democracy works and the threats it faces. To learn more, visit usdemocracyday.org.
Election Day is just under two months away, but the race for the White House is already heating up across the country. This time around, perhaps no state is more important than Pennsylvania.
The Keystone State plays a pivotal role as a “swing state” — one that can reasonably won by either the Republican or Democratic candidate in statewide or national elections. Several swing states, including Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin, are often the deciding factor in helping either major party’s candidate pass the required simple majority of 270 electoral votes to win a presidential election.
With all eyes on Pennsylvania, here’s what you should know about changes in voter demographics, registration deadlines and the commonwealth’s electoral history.
How has voter registration changed in Pennsylvania?
Across the commonwealth, voter registration has dipped compared to the last presidential election cycle.
As of Sept. 9, roughly 8.88 million Pennsylvanians are registered to vote. However, that figure is down from the 9.09 million residents who were eligible to vote during the 2020 election that saw Joe Biden carry Pennsylvania en route to the White House.
Perhaps more notably, Republicans now hold voter registration advantages in four counties — Beaver, Berks, Bucks and Fayette — that previously leaned in favor of Democrats, according to 2020 end-of-year registration data published in 2021.
No county saw a larger shift in this regard than Fayette County, which held a significant advantage for Democrats in December 2020 (nearly 4,000 more registered Democratic voters than Republicans) but has since flipped, giving Republicans a nearly 7,000-voter advantage as of early September.
Fayette County’s 79,635 total voters make significant changes in party registration edge easier than more populated counties, as it takes fewer “flips” to see proportional changes. This makes Bucks County’s flip significant, as the fourth-most populous county in Pennsylvania now has a razor-thin advantage for Republicans (200,294 registered voters) over Democrats (198,886). That marks a stark contrast from the end of 2020, when Democrats held an advantage of more than 10,000 registered voters in Bucks County.
Berks and Beaver counties hold roughly 2% edges in voter registration for Republicans over Democrats. Berks County, home to Reading, the fourth-most populous city in Pennsylvania, has roughly 6,200 more registered Republicans than Democrats, while Beaver County’s edge for Republicans sits at about 2,300 as of early September. Both counties saw Democrats exceed Republican voter registrations by about 6,000 in 2020.
Registration edges aside, Pennsylvania remains home to roughly 3.91 million registered Democrats. That total exceeds Republicans, who claim about 3.57 million registered voters.
Since the last presidential election, Democrats have seen their total advantage of registered voters over Republicans cut nearly in half in Pennsylvania. Democrats held 666,202 more registered Pennsylvania voters over Republicans by the end of 2020, but that advantage is now down to 347,789 as of early September, according to the Pennsylvania Department of State.
Voter registration outside of the Democratic and Republican parties is on the rise across Pennsylvania, recent data shows. As of Sept. 9, Pennsylvania is home to about 1.39 million voters who are unaffiliated or registered with a third party, representing about 15.7% of all registered voters. That mark is up significantly from the end of 2020, when Pennsylvania held about 1.3 million unaffiliated or third-party registrants, or 14.48% of Pennsylvania’s total registered voters.
This visualization shows the current voter registration advantages for all 67 Pennsylvania counties as of Sept. 9, according to state data. Hover over each county to see the major party’s advantage represented as a percentage, plus the total number of registered voters as of Sept. 9.
How can I register to vote?
Registering to vote in Pennsylvania is simple, but you need to make sure you don’t miss important deadlines.
Pennsylvanians must register to vote at least 15 days before the next election. That means you need to be registered by Oct. 21 if you plan on voting in the 2024 presidential election.
Those who register to vote in Pennsylvania must be a U.S. citizen for at least one month before the election and must reside in the commonwealth and your election district for at least 30 days. Voters must also be at least 18 years old on or before the day of the election.
Ready to register? You can get started online by visiting pavoterservices.pa.gov/Pages/VoterRegistrationApplication.asp, applying through the mail or completing forms in person at your county’s election office, Pennsylvania Department of Transportation offices or other government buildings.
Once you’re registered to vote, you have plenty of options at your disposal to cast your ballot. You can visit your polling place in person on Election Day, Nov. 5, but you might consider voting by mail or using an absentee ballot if you aren’t in Pennsylvania or encounter an emergency that prevents you from voting.
Mail-in and absentee ballot applications must be received by your county’s election office by 5 p.m. Oct. 29. Completed ballots must be received by 8 p.m. Nov. 5 to be counted.
You can check your voter registration status online through the Pennsylvania Department of State’s online portal by searching your name, driver’s license number or Pennsylvania Department of Transportation ID number. If you search by name, be sure to list your first and last name, date of birth, ZIP code and county of residence.
Is Pennsylvania really that important during a national election?
The Keystone State remains a key indicator in the race for the White House. Over the last 50 years, Pennsylvania has almost always wound up “swinging” toward the eventual elected president.
Here’s a look at how the Keystone State has swung since the 1976 presidential election, with candidates who were elected highlighted in bold text:
- 1976 — Jimmy Carter (D), 27 electoral votes
- 1980 — Ronald Reagan (R), 27 electoral votes
- 1984 — Ronald Reagan (R), 25 electoral votes
- 1988 — George H. W. Bush (R), 25 electoral votes
- 1992 — Bill Clinton (D), 23 electoral votes
- 1996 — Bill Clinton (D), 23 electoral votes
- 2000 — Al Gore (D), 23 electoral votes
- 2004 — John Kerry (D), 21 electoral votes
- 2008 — Barack Obama (D), 21 electoral votes
- 2012 — Barack Obama (D), 20 electoral votes
- 2016 — Donald Trump (R), 20 electoral votes
- 2020 — Joe Biden (D), 20 electoral votes
Since 1900, the overall winning candidate in 24 of 31 presidential elections (77%) has carried Pennsylvania. However, the results are often close, especially in recent years. Biden won Pennsylvania by just 1.2% in 2020, while Trump claimed the Keystone State by 0.7% in 2016.
Pennsylvania’s influence on the election has remained strong despite losing eight electoral votes since 1976, falling to 19 for the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections. The allocation of electoral votes to each U.S. state changes every decade to reflect population changes, which are recorded by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Pennsylvania holds the fifth-most electoral votes among all states, tying with Illinois at 19.
To learn more about voting in Pennsylvania, visit pa.gov/en/agencies/vote.html.
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