How cold will Pennsylvania be for Thanksgiving? The Farmers’ Almanac has predictions
As fall foliage is expected to peak in Centre County and in much of Pennsylvania this week, residents may be wondering how cold the season could get, particularly around the holidays.
The Farmers’ Almanac has released its Thanksgiving weekend weather predictions, which are valid from Nov. 24 to 27. Pennsylvania is in the almanac’s Zone 1, which also includes New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and Washington, D.C.
Zone 1’s prediction reads: “Weather markedly improves for Thanksgiving: mostly fair, cold. (Hopefully good weather for the parade in NY!)”
The almanac’s extended winter forecast cautioned Pennsylvania residents that conditions may involve “significant shivers” and could be “slushy, icy, snowy” later in the year.
How does the Farmers’ Almanac predict weather?
The Farmers’ Almanac has provided extended forecasts since 1818, according to its website, and typically projects out further than the National Weather Service.
The almanac makes predictions based on a mysterious formula that considers factors such as planetary positioning, sunspot activity and tidal action of the moon.
“The only person who knows the exact formula is the Farmers’ Almanac weather prognosticator who goes by the pseudonym of Caleb Weatherbee,” the website reads. “To protect this proprietary formula, the editors of the Farmers’ Almanac prefer to keep both Caleb’s true identity and the formula a closely guarded brand secret.”
Editors of the Farmers’ Almanac “firmly deny” using any type of computer satellite tracking equipment, weather lore or groundhogs. They say they use a specific and reliable set of rules developed in 1818 by the almanac’s first editor, an astronomer and mathematician named David Young. The rules have been altered slightly and turned into an astronomical, mathematical formula, the almanac says.
What does the National Weather Service forecast?
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center provides outlooks up to three months out, and the agency posted the most recent long-range forecast Sept. 15. It includes information for October, November and December.
The seasonal temperature outlook reported Pennsylvania has a 40% to 50% chance of above normal temperatures, while the precipitation outlook indicated the commonwealth has roughly equal chances of above or below normal precipitation.
October’s monthly outlook said most of the western and northern regions of the commonwealth have a 33% to 40% chance of below normal temperatures, while the southwest area has roughly a 40% to 50% likelihood of cooler temperatures.
The month’s precipitation forecast said north Pennsylvania has a 33% to 40% chance of below normal precipitation, while the commonwealth’s southern region has a 33% to 40% chance of above normal precipitation. The central area has about equal chances of above or below normal precipitation.
