Is Pennsylvania getting snow for Christmas this year? What Farmers’ Almanac predicts
Christmas is less than a month away, and we’ve entered an El Niño pattern, which may bring warmer and drier-than-usual conditions to Pennsylvania.
But the weather pattern could last multiple years, and it doesn’t necessarily mean central Pennsylvania residents will see warm and dry weather all winter.
Here’s what the Farmers’ Almanac predicts for weather in Pennsylvania this Christmas, along with a seasonal outlook from the National Weather Service.
Farmers’ Almanac Christmas prediction
The Farmers’ Almanac has released a Christmas expectation for 2023, including weather predictions for Dec. 24 to Dec. 27. Pennsylvania is in the almanac’s Zone 1, along with New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland and Washington, D.C.
Here’s what the Farmers’ Almanac predicts for Christmas weather in Zone 1: “Looks like any wintry precipitation comes to an end bringing clear skies for holiday events.”
The Farmers’ Almanac makes predictions based on a mysterious formula that considers factors such as planetary positioning, sunspot activity and tidal action of the moon.
“The only person who knows the exact formula is the Farmers’ Almanac weather prognosticator who goes by the pseudonym of Caleb Weatherbee,” the organization’s website says. “To protect this proprietary formula, the editors of the Farmers’ Almanac prefer to keep both Caleb’s true identity and the formula a closely guarded brand secret.”
The almanac has provided extended forecasts since 1818, according to its website.
National Weather Service snow forecast
As for the traditional weather outlook, the NWS reports Pennsylvania has a 40% to 50% chance of seeing above-normal temperatures from December to February.
Central Pennsylvania has roughly equal chances of above- or below-normal precipitation for the three-month period, the NWS reports. A northwestern sliver of the commonwealth has a 33% to 40% chance of below-normal precipitation, while part of the eastern region has a 33% to 40% chance of above-normal precipitation.
State College has approximately a 26% to 40% historical probability of a white Christmas, according to weather service data from 1981 to 2010. The precise historical likelihood of at least an inch of snow on Christmas varies by region in Pennsylvania.
Weather service data puts State College’s average first measurable snowfall around Nov. 17.
The NWS typically releases more detailed forecasts a week at a time.
