Analyzing Penn State’s backfield: What should fans expect from the RBs in 2019?
Camp opens for Penn State on Friday and, in preparation, we’re tackling the most serious issues facing the Nittany Lions every day until then. Up today: What will the Penn State backfield look like in 2019, and what should fans expect?
Penn State’s recent run at NFL-level talent in the backfield is setting a new standard. In 2018, Saquon Barkley went No. 2 overall in the draft and, in 2019, Miles Sanders followed that up with a second-round selection.
That’s the first time in 23 years the Nittany Lions had running backs drafted in consecutive seasons, making Ki-Jana Carter (No. 1 overall, 1995) and Stephen Pitts/Mike Archie (sixth and seventh rounds, 1996) the other most-recent backs to do so.
Although that streak figures to end next year, it’s not because of a talent drop-off. Penn State’s top backs are all freshmen or sophomores, and the future is incredibly bright. The biggest question is simply how the Nittany Lions can make all their backs happy: sophomore Ricky Slade, the nation’s top all-purpose back in high school; freshmen Noah Cain and Devyn Ford, two top-10 RB recruits; and redshirt sophomore Journey Brown, a speedster who was suspended for the summer but received high praise in the spring.
Let’s break it down:
What’s going to be different this year?
For the last three seasons, Penn State boasted a bell-cow back who took on 200-plus carries. That figures to change this year.
RB Journey Brown said in the spring the 2019 backfield might resemble 2017 Georgia, when Nick Chubb (1,345 yards) and Sony Michel (1,227 yards) formed a balanced one-two punch with D’Andre Swift (618 yards) offering quality depth. Penn State running backs coach Ja’Jaun Seider also said the running attack this year will be a lot more balanced than last season.
“For me, last year was hard to play Miles that much,” Seider said last month, referring to the back’s 220 carries. “I struggled with that because I’m usually having a guy have 1,500 yards or 1,200 yards and maybe you have a kid with 700 yards because you’re almost playing two starters.”
Prior to arriving at Penn State last year, Seider spent eight seasons coaching running backs at Florida, West Virginia and Marshall. And only twice — in 2013 (Charles Sims) and 2015 (Wendell Smallwood) — did his main back surpass 200 carries or touch the ball on more than half of the non-QB running plays.
Seider has rotated in four running backs (2012, 2014, 2016) more often than he’s used three (2010, 2017). So using the entirety of Penn State’s young corps wouldn’t be new territory for Seider.
The assistant coach adjusts based on what’s available. So, if a back’s good enough, he won’t be riding the bench in this offense.
What does the RB hierarchy look like: Who’s No. 1 through No. 4?
Ricky Slade is the only known commodity here and the safe pick to lead the team in touches. James Franklin almost certainly wanted to feed him the ball more often last year, but injuries and fumbles prevented the back from seeing the field. Still, he was the clear No. 2 behind Miles Sanders.
Expect Slade to open the season as the starter. That’s a no-brainer. It starts getting complicated when trying to project what happens after him.
In the spring, the popular projection was Brown as the No. 2 — at least for the beginning of the season while the two freshmen found their footing. But with Brown’s summer suspension from team activities, the gulf between him and early enrollee Noah Cain just got a whole lot slimmer. (Devyn Ford will likely be the No. 4 at the start of the season, simply for having arrived the latest.)
Cain impressed in the Blue-White Game, playing with the second-team offensive line against the first-team defense and still finding space inside and hitting the holes hard. Although he was essentially on a pitch count in high school — no coach wanted to pull a Montee Ball and burn him out because of his bright future — both Seider and 247 Sports analyst Gabe Brooks believe he has “high-volume ability.” Said Seider: “He’s the type of back that can touch the ball 30 times a game and get stronger.”
It would surprise no one if Cain was the No. 2 back by the end of August or even if he eventually cut into Slade’s production. “A lot of times his runs aren’t overly sexy,” Franklin said, “but he’s just breaking tackles and falling forward, and he’s very productive.”
The unknowns surrounding the backs are pass-blocking and pass-catching. Slade and Brown caught just one pass apiece last year; Cain had 12 catches as a high school senior and Ford had 421 receiving yards in his final high school season. If Cain can become at least average in those two categories, he should quickly rise to the No. 2. If he can’t? That’ll make everything much trickier. (Remember Curtis Dukes? Running well can’t be the only weapon in your arsenal.)
How many carries can the main back expect? What about the other guys?
Unfortunately, the CDT’s crystal ball is still in the shop. But we know Penn State wants to distribute the ball more this season, and we know what Seider has done in the past when in a similar situation. So let’s talk it out.
In the past, when Seider had at least three quality backs, the main ball-carrier never had more than 176 carries. If Penn State runs a similar number of offensive plays compared to last season, then history suggests the floor is about 140 carries, based on past percentages.
In five of eight seasons, Seider’s No. 3 back earned at least 58 carries (and as many as 80). And, three times, Seider had a No. 4 back earn at least 49 carries. Seider’s biggest adjustment from year-to-year has been how many to give the No. 2.
Slade should open the season as the No. 1 and Ford as the No. 4, while Brown and Cain should battle for the other spots. And, if everything goes according to plan, Penn State should again have consecutive RB draft picks in 2021 and 2022.
This story was originally published July 29, 2019 at 4:44 PM.
