5 things to watch in Saturday’s Penn State-Indiana college football game
The No. 9 Penn State Nittany Lions (8-1) are set to take on the Indiana Hoosiers (7-2) at noon Saturday (ABC) at Beaver Stadium in Happy Valley. Here are five things you should keep an eye on during the Big Ten matchup:
Can Penn State’s pass-defense rebound after a historically bad performance?
The Nittany Lions allowed last week’s quarterback, Minnesota’s Tanner Morgan, to complete 90 percent of his throws on 18-of-20 passing. We’ve mentioned this before, but it bears repeating: That was the worst completion rate allowed by Penn State this century, excluding 2015 Army’s 1-for-1 performance.
Penn State blew several coverages, and Minnesota picked apart the soft zone in the first half. The Gophers even threw for 100 more yards than their season average.
Well, Indiana isn’t exactly a push-over in the passing department. In fact, on paper, the Hoosiers are the best passing team that James Franklin’s squad has faced so far.
Indiana leads the Big Ten — and ranks No. 15 nationally — by averaging 308 passing yards per game. That’s 58 yards better per game than any other opponent Penn State has faced so far. That’s significant.
This secondary will be tested plenty on Saturday, especially on short and intermediate routes, and there’ll be no let-up — even if starting QB Michael Penix Jr. is out for the season. The No. 2, Peyton Ramsey, is fifth nationally with a 72 percent completion rate, and he was the starter last season when the Hoosiers fell just short in a 33-28 upset bid against PSU.
This matchup is one of the obvious keys to the game. Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi previously called the Penn State secondary the weak link to this defense and, if it falters again, there’s a chance last year repeats itself — when one heart-breaking loss led to a second straight loss for the Nittany Lions.
Indiana is looking to seize this opportunity, while Penn State is seeking redemption. This’ll be a battle to watch all four quarters.
PSU RBs Noah Cain/Journey Brown and IU RB Stevie Scott
All of these running backs are unique for different reasons. But let’s start out with the home team. Cain, a true freshman, has clearly been the Nittany Lions’ best and most consistent back to this point. His hard-nosed running style, ability to break tackles and penchant to fall forward has helped move this offense when explosive plays have been hard to come by. But, once again, his status against Indiana is questionable.
James Franklin said Tuesday that Cain was at “90 percent” last Saturday and did not play since there were three other running backs at 100 percent. That would hint that Cain should be good to go against Indiana but, then again, Franklin also said last week that expected Cain to go against Minnesota ... so his status can’t be assured one way or another.
If Cain can’t go, RB Journey Brown will almost certainly earn the starting nod again. He had the hot hand last week, rushing 14 times for a career-high 124 yards and two touchdowns. Brown boasts elite speed and, once he bounces to the outside, he’s hard for anyone to catch. KJ Hamler might have the fastest 40 on Penn State but, over 100 yards, Brown is likely tops. In high school, Brown set the 100-meter PIAA record by breaking a 32-year-old mark first set by Olympic gold medalist Leroy Burrell.
On the other end of the field, the Hoosiers boast a unique running back themselves. Scott stands at 6-foot-2 and 231 pounds, and he can punish a defense. He’s been a staple of the Indiana offense on third-and-short — he led the nation in third-and-3 (or shorter) conversions prior to Northwestern — and he provides versatility as a receiving threat out of the backfield, in addition to being an above-average blocker.
Scott is definitely worth watching Saturday. After a slow start to the season, Scott has become more patient in his runs, and that’s paid some big dividends. In his last six games, Scott boasts 619 rushing yards.
The Big Ten is known for its talent on the ground, and every running back mentioned above has either freshman or sophomore eligibility. This entire group could be a force for two more seasons.
2 red-zone offenses coming off opposite performances
We’ll get to Indiana in a moment. But Penn State has the more intriguing storyline to its red-zone offense this week. The Nittany Lions have been solid so far this season, scoring 26 touchdowns in 37 trips and coming away completely empty on just four occasions. But last week against Minnesota wasn’t pretty.
Here’s a brief rundown of the misses inside the 20: PSU twice settled for a field goal — at the 15-yard line (after a delay of game) and the 3-yard line, QB Sean Clifford tossed interceptions that were caught in the end zone and at the 6-yard line, and Penn State had a turnover on downs at the 5.
The Nittany Lions remain ranked No. 34 nationally in red-zone offense, scoring 89.2 percent of the time, but they disappointed last week against the Gophers. Whether that was an anomaly or the start of an unwanted trend should be revealed Saturday.
On the other side of the field, Penn State’s defense should have a challenge once Indiana gets to the 20. The Hoosiers have scored 29 touchdowns on 43 trips in the red zone and have come away empty just five times.
They’re ranked four spots behind Penn State in red-zone offense, coming in at No. 38 by scoring 88.4 percent of the time. And, unlike the Nittany Lions, IU is coming off a strong red-zone performance against Northwestern.
The Hoosiers had six trips inside the 20, scoring four touchdowns and settling for two field goals. And all but one of those touchdowns came on the early downs.
Red-zone offense played a huge role last week and, if Penn State sputters there again, it might not like the result.
Can Penn State QB Sean Clifford rebound from his first multi-INT game?
Throughout the season, Clifford has been one of the Big Ten’s best quarterbacks. But there’s no other way to describe last week’s performance than “disappointing.”
In his first 216 pass attempts this season, the first-year starter tossed three interceptions. Against Minnesota, on 43 passes, he threw another three picks. Combine that with his penchant of underthrowing passes early — he missed TE Pat Freiermuth on what would’ve been an easy touchdown — and Clifford was understandably upset after the game.
This is the first time the young quarterback has had to face adversity, as it was the first loss of his college career, and how he comes back Saturday against Indiana should speak to his resilience — or, if he struggles, how it’s hard to put those mistakes behind him. All eyes will be on Clifford on Saturday, and Indiana should provide a stiff challenge.
The Hoosiers used to be a defensive laughingstock, but defensive-minded head coach Tom Allen has helped transform them. Sure, Minnesota is ranked No. 6 nationally in defensive pass efficiency, but Indiana isn’t too far behind at No. 32. The big difference? Indiana’s defense has forced just three interceptions this entire season.
If the picks continue for Clifford on Saturday, it might be time for fans of the blue-and-white to panic. If Penn State’s first loss bleeds into another one Saturday, odds are it’ll at least partly be because of Clifford not getting over Minnesota. Keep an eye on how he starts out Saturday against the Hoosiers; early underthrows are not the tone this coaching staff want him to set.
Two solid special-teams units
According to Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings, which measure college football efficiency, Penn State has the country’s No. 14 special-teams unit — but Indiana is even better. The Hoosiers rank No. 9 nationally. Head on over to Football Outsiders and the rankings are virtually flipped: Penn State is No. 5 nationally, while Indiana is No. 15.
Regardless, the main takeaway here is the same: Both special-teams units are good. Very, very good.
Now, Penn State hasn’t been perfect lately, fumbling on a late punt return last week and garnering too many flags on returns, but this has still been an overall strength of the team. Punter Blake Gillikin has mastered the art of pinning a team inside the 20, with 24 of his 46 punts coming inside that targeted area, while long-distance kicker Jordan Stout is among the nation’s leaders in delivering touchbacks on kickoffs.
The Hoosiers might be even more impressive. Indiana’s Logan Justus is the only Big Ten kicker not to miss a field goal yet this season, as he’s 12 for 12 with a long of 50 yards. And Indiana is averaging a touchback on 67 percent of its kickoffs.
Elsewhere, the stats don’t tell the full story for either team. Indiana punter Haydon Whitehead is averaging just 41.9 yards per punt, but that average is brought down by poor games against Ohio State and Michigan State. Otherwise, he’s been solid this season and, against Nebraska, had three punts land inside the 10. Penn State’s KJ Hamler also isn’t among the conference leaders in punt or kick returns, but he’s an explosive player who’s had two return TDs called back due to holding.
The moral of the story? Even where these teams aren’t ranked near the top of the country, they’re still worth watching on special teams. And both punt/kick games should be entertaining to follow.
This story was originally published November 14, 2019 at 2:18 PM.
