5 things to watch in Saturday’s Penn State vs. Ohio State game, one of the nation’s biggest
The No. 8 Penn State Nittany Lions (9-1) are set to take on No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes (10-0) at noon Saturday (FOX) at The Horseshoe in Columbus, Ohio, in a game that will almost certainly determine who earns a spot in the Big Ten championship.
Here are five things you should keep an eye on during a game that will undoubtedly impact the College Football Playoff race:
Injury status of Penn State WR KJ Hamler, RB Noah Cain
James Franklin has one rule about Penn State’s injury report — you don’t talk about Penn State’s injury report, at least to the media. So we won’t know, for certain, the status of Hamler or Cain until kickoff Saturday. But Wednesday night’s practice definitely shed some light on where the two players are trending.
Spoiler alert: It’s good news for Cain, and not-so-great news for Hamler.
Hamler, who appeared to suffer a concussion Saturday, was seen in pads but no helmet Wednesday night during the brief session open to the media. He was instead wearing a blue-and-white winter cap. Franklin said Tuesday he remains “hopeful” that Hamler will play, but he reiterated medical professionals will make that call — perhaps in a nod to a current lawsuit against the university, in which Franklin was accused of pressuring one former athletic trainer of prematurely clearing players.
Regardless, Hamler’s potential absence would certainly be problematic. The Nittany Lions have struggled finding a No. 3 wideout and, without Hamler, there would be no clear WR threat outside of Jahan Dotson. Fortunately for Penn State, there’s quality depth at tight end with Pat Freiermuth and Nick Bowers, but it remains to be seen how much Penn State might alter its game plan.
On the flip side, after missing the last two games following a lower-body injury against Michigan State, Cain continues to look healthier. He was considered an “emergency” backup against Minnesota, and he took full part in pregame warmups against Indiana before not playing. And, on Wednesday, he appeared to be as active as the media has seen him at practice.
“Yeah, he is,” Franklin said, agreeing. “I thought he looked pretty good today. Obviously, we’ve still got a little bit more time before the game, but you’re right. That’s the most he’s done in, probably, the last couple of weeks. So we’re trending in the right direction.”
If Cain is again unable to go, the Nittany Lions have competent replacements in Journey Brown and Devyn Ford. Brown has run for back-to-back 100-yard games, although Cain’s more consistent, more powerful running style might be a better fit against the Buckeyes.
No Hamler, though? Maybe no injury, outside of QB Sean Clifford, could be more detrimental to the Nittany Lions.
Unprecedented dominance of Ohio State DE Chase Young
Young missed the last two games, against Rutgers and Maryland, due to a suspension after receiving a loan from a family friend. But he’s back just in time for Penn State, and he won’t be on a limited snap count Saturday. In fact, Lettermen Row’s Austin Ward believes he’ll play more Saturday than he has all season.
There might not be a more important matchup Saturday than how Penn State’s offensive line fares against Young, who could’ve been a legitimate Heisman candidate had it not been for the suspension.
As it stands, in eight games, Young already boasts 13.5 sacks and 15.5 tackles for loss. He’s the No. 1 overall prospect on the 2020 NFL Draft Big Boards of ESPN analysts Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay. And he’s Pro Football Focus’ highest-rated edge defender with an overall grade of 97.0 — which isn’t surprising, considering Young’s pass-rush win percentage is also at a national-best 32.3%.
Young has the ability to completely change the face of this game. Penn State will have to know where he is at all times, maybe bringing in an extra tight end as a blocker or keeping a running back in protection, running away from him or getting passes out quicker. Young has been the root cause of several interceptions, and he’s also forced five fumbles already this year.
Young might be the best player in all of college football, defense or otherwise. And the Nittany Lions aren’t underestimating him.
“I probably haven’t seen, watching film, another dude like Chase,” tight end Pat Freiermuth said. “He just jumps out, he’s so physical. Physically dominant. He just rushes the passer really well. He stops the run really well. Just an athlete out there.
“They like to move him around a little bit, kind of put him in mismatches. We just got to be on our A-game, identify him wherever he is on the field just so he can’t wreck our game plan.”
That’s easier said than done. We’d tell you to keep an eye on Young in this game — but odds are you won’t be able to miss him anyway.
Can Penn State’s pass defense stop Ohio State QB Justin Fields?
Fans of the blue-and-white probably don’t need a refresher on the secondary’s performance these last two weeks. (It’s likely been the cause of a few empty Advil bottles.) But just in case: In those two games, the Nittany Lions have allowed a combined 710 passing yards and four touchdowns, in addition to an 80% completion rate while producing no interceptions.
It hasn’t been pretty.
Blown coverages, miscommunication, lack of a pass-rush, missed assignments, bad tackling — the issues on this Penn State pass defense have come to a head in the last two games. But that’s what the season was leading to. Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi even said earlier in the season, “We attacked their weakness, which was their secondary.”
Penn State players don’t really seem to have a good explanation for why this pass-defense has been shredded the last two games. Indiana may be the Big Ten’s top passing offense, for example, but Peyton Ramey still posted a career-high 371 yards. And Minnesota’ Tanner Morgan may be a talented quarterback, but his 90% completion rate (18-of-20 passing) was the worst allowed by a Penn State defense this century (min: 5 attempts).
“I don’t really know how to answer that,” cornerback Tariq Castro-Fields said last Saturday. “I don’t want to make any excuses, or anything like that.”
The problem? Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields, a former Penn State commit, has been the Big Ten’s best this season. He has 31 passing touchdowns to just a single interception, in addition to running for another 10 touchdowns. He boasts the nation’s No. 4 passing efficiency (191.80), putting him right behind Oklahoma’s Jalen Hurts, Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa and LSU’s Joe Burrow.
He’s one of the nation’s best quarterbacks. And he’s the best signal-caller the Nittany Lions have yet seen.
Starting out hot, setting the right tone
In the last three years, it’s the fourth quarter that’s proven crucial. In 2018, Penn State led by 12 in the final quarter until Ohio State rallied for a 27-26 win. In 2017, Penn State led by 15 in the fourth until the Buckeyes came back for the 38-37 victory. And, in 2016, the Nittany Lions rallied from a 14-point deficit in the final stanza to win 24-21.
So, sure, we’re not telling anyone to turn their TVs off in the final 15 minutes of the game. But, this time around, the first quarter that might prove especially important.
The Nittany Lions have come out flat in their last two games, and they can’t afford to do that against one of the nation’s best teams in Ohio State. After not allowing any points in the first quarter of the first eight games, the Nittany Lions have surrendered 31 first-quarter points in their last two matchups, against Minnesota and Indiana.
They were outscored in the first quarter in both of those games. Ohio State? Well, the Buckeyes have outscored opponents 115-18 in the first quarter this season. And, surprisingly enough, Rutgers was the only team to score a touchdown against Ryan Day’s squad this season. And that came last week.
The Buckeyes haven’t trailed often this season — they had a 5-point deficit for about 7 minutes against Miami (Ohio), before winning 76-5 — so Penn State would receive a huge boost in confidence if it grabbed an early lead. That’d also help take a hostile Ohio Stadium crowd out of the game.
But, if the trend of slow first quarters continues for Penn State, the Nittany Lions could be in for a long, long day in Columbus.
Special special-teams
According to Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings, which measure college football efficiency, this is the one area where the Nittany Lions have the slight edge. Penn State ranks No. 9 nationally in overall special teams, while the Buckeyes are No. 17.
In the recent past, it’s special teams that have really helped turn the tide of this game. In 2018, an early missed Penn State field goal turned out to be pretty important in the 27-26 loss. In 2017, Saquon Barkley returned a kick for a 97-yard touchdown. And, in 2016, Penn State cornerback Grant Haley returned a blocked field goal for a 60-yard game-winning score.
If Saturday’s contest remains as close as the last three meetings, special teams could decide the winner.
Both programs have done a lot of good this season. Ohio State has blocked three kicks; Penn State has blocked four. WalterFootball ranks Ohio State punter Drue Chrisman and Penn State punter Blake Gillikin as the Nos. 1 and 3 punters in the 2020 NFL draft, respectively. Both teams are allowing less than 18 yards a kick return. And both kicking teams are hitting field goals at an 80% clip or better.
That being said, there have been some dents in the armor. Rutgers scored a first-quarter touchdown after Ohio State fumbled on a punt return. Some subpar blocking also led to Ohio State allowing a blocked punt against Wisconsin. And Penn State has been no different. Explosive wideout/returner KJ Hamler — who might not be available to play — has lost yards on several punt returns trying to make something out of nothing. The performance against Purdue was also littered with miscues, between a flag for interference, a missed field goal, an out-of-bounds kickoff and an inconsistent punt game.
So both of these teams have been great on special teams. But neither has been perfect. Special teams isn’t something you’ll want to miss Saturday.
This story was originally published November 21, 2019 at 2:08 PM.
