How can Memphis upset the Penn State Nittany Lions? Here are the Cotton Bowl’s 2 key matchups
No. 10 Penn State has the clear advantage against No. 17 Memphis in Saturday’s Cotton Bowl Classic — the Nittany Lions are 7-point favorites — but, if PSU wants to win on the field and not on paper, it still needs to dominate its matchups.
Here are the two key matchups to Saturday’s game (noon, ESPN) that we think will directly to determine the outcome:
Josh Moyer: Memphis quarterback Brady White vs. Penn State secondary
Let’s not overthink this. This matchup is the obvious choice, and it’s really not up for debate.
What is Memphis’ team strength? Passing. Quarterback Brady White is a finalist for the Manning Award and was a semifinalist for the Davey O’Brien Award, two honors that go to the nation’s top quarterback. And what is Penn State’s weakness? Pass defense. The secondary consistently struggled against the better quarterbacks it went up against — collapsing against Minnesota, for example, by allowing Tanner Morgan to complete 90% of his passes. Several other teams, such as Pitt, posted some of their best passing performances of the season against the Nittany Lions.
Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi was pretty direct early in the season about Penn State’s Achilles’ heel.
“I think we attacked their weakness, which was their secondary,” he told reporters.
If Penn State loses Saturday, it won’t be from a 17-12 Iowa-type game that involves a defensive slugfest. It’ll be because the secondary has no answers and the Penn State offense can’t match the firepower from White and Co.
Just look at the precedent this season. Indiana boasts the nation’s No. 14 passing offense, and it posted its second-highest passing total of the season against the Nittany Lions. (The highest total, 441 yards, came against FCS Eastern Illinois.) Backup Peyton Ramsey threw for a career-high 371 yards against Penn State, and James Franklin’s squad barely hung on in a 34-27 victory. Pitt, the No. 46 passing offense, threw for a season-high 372 yards. And, for Minnesota, the No. 51 passing offense, Morgan’s 90% completion rate was the worst mark allowed by a Penn State defense (min: 5 pass attempts) so far this century.
The Tigers’ leading receiver, Damonte Coxie, won’t make a win in the Cotton Bowl any easier. Coxie is a 6-foot-3 NFL talent — an inch taller than Minnesota’s two talented receivers — and he’ll give Penn State plenty of matchup issues. He was originally committed to LSU for 2016, and garnered serious interest from Alabama, but a knee injury in high school caused bigger programs to back off. White has some serious weapons here.
In other words, just because Memphis is a Group of 5 team doesn’t mean the Penn State defense won’t be challenged.
On paper, this will be the third-best passing offense that Penn State has faced — Indiana and Purdue are Nos 1. and 2, respectively — as White helped the Tigers average a little over 284 passing yards a game. According to Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings, which measure college football efficiency, Memphis also boasts one of the nation’s top-10 offenses.
So far this season, White has thrown for 33 touchdowns to nine picks. And the Arizona State transfer has 3,560 passing yards.
“Obviously,” Penn State cornerback Trent Gordon said earlier this week, “he’s a good quarterback. And all I want to say is we’re prepared for him.”
The key to Saturday’s bowl game is pretty simple: If Penn State stops White and the passing game, it should win. If it doesn’t? A victory is far from a guarantee.
Jon Sauber: Penn State’s wide receivers vs. Memphis’ defensive backs
The Nittany Lions will have to match the Tigers offensively in this one, which means the wide receivers will need to be at the top of their game.
Redshirt sophomore K.J. Hamler, who could be playing in his last game as a Nittany Lion, can’t be the only one to play well, either. Hamler has to play well, sophomore Jahan Dotson has to play well, and redshirt freshman Daniel George has to play well. The Tigers will put up plenty of points and Penn State has to match them. Those three wideouts will need to find success for Penn State to keep up the pace in what should be a high-scoring game.
Based on what several players said after tight ends coach Tyler Bowen was announced as the game’s interim offensive coordinator, the play-calling in the Cotton Bowl will be aggressive. Several players, including Hamler, said Bowen is even more aggressive than former offensive coordinator Ricky Rahne. If that turns out to be the case, expect more downfield shots, more passing and big-play opportunities for all of the wideouts.
Dotson, George and Hamler should be the key beneficiaries of that aggression, and all three are capable of having big games. Dotson and Hamler have the speed to get downfield and behind safeties to make big plays, while possessing the shiftiness and agility to create their own big plays if they get the ball in space. George is the wildcard of the bunch, but he’s a big, physical wideout who has proven he’s at least capable of making big plays in spurts. He’ll have a big opportunity ahead with the absence of redshirt freshman Justin Shorter, who’s in the transfer portal.
The defensive backs facing Penn State won’t be the best Memphis usually has to offer in the game. The team’s best defensive back, junior T.J. Carter, won’t play for the Tigers after suffering an injury in the team’s regular season finale against Cincinnati. Without Carter, they’ll rely on redshirt sophomore Jacobi Francis to step up as the top corner while fellow redshirt sophomore Chris Claybrooks will step up as the second starting corner.
Francis and Claybrooks will be tasked with slowing the Penn State wideouts, and if they can, the Tigers will have a shot Saturday.
