How could Penn State rebound and upset Ohio State? Here’s 2 key matchups for Saturday’s game
After an overtime loss on the road to Indiana on Saturday, No. 18 Penn State finds itself as a heavier underdog that it likely thought it’d be heading into its Week 2 matchup against No. 3 Ohio State. Even in Beaver Stadium, the Buckeyes are favored by 12 points.
If PSU wants the chance to pull an upset and beat its rival for the first time since 2016, it will need to dominate its matchups.
Here are two key matchups to Saturday’s game (7:30 p.m., ABC) that we think could directly determine the outcome:
PARTH UPADHYAYA: PENN STATE D-LINE VS. OHIO STATE O-LINE
Penn State’s defensive line played excellent — especially late in the game — against Indiana last weekend. Redshirt senior defensive end Shaka Toney and redshirt sophomore defensive end Jayson Oweh consistently pressured Hoosiers quarterback Michael Penix Jr. down the stretch of the overtime loss. (Toney and Oweh had the first and second highest pass-rush win percentage in the country for Week 8, respectively, according to Pro Football Focus.)
Toney finished the contest against Indiana with seven total tackles, two tackles for a loss and two sacks; Oweh had two total tackles. Together, they combined for 15 quarterback pressures.
The duo will need to lead the Nittany Lions defensive line again on Saturday against the Buckeyes, as it looks to contain Heisman Trophy candidate quarterback Justin Fields.
Fields has demonstrated that he can do damage with his arm as well as his legs. Against Nebraska last Saturday, he threw for 276 yards (20-21 passing) and two touchdowns, while adding 54 yards and a touchdown on the ground. If Penn State doesn’t make Fields uncomfortable early and often, it’ll be a long night for the Nittany Lions.
Even in a blowout victory against Nebraska, Ohio State’s offensive line did look vulnerable at times — the Buckeyes gave up three sacks for a loss of 21 yards.
Sure, a big reason why Ohio State gave up those sacks is because of Fields’ willingness to scramble. But Penn State still should have an opportunity to limit Fields’ effectiveness as a passer by putting pressure on him in the pocket.
The Nittany Lions will have their work cut out for them, though. Despite the few slip-ups that come with playing for the first time in nearly a year, the Buckeyes’ offensive line looked solid overall in its first game. Pro Football Focus gave the unit the highest overall grade among offensive lines for Week 8 (81.4). The group is still breaking in two new starters, but returns veterans in center Josh Myers, guard Wyatt Davis and left tackle Thayer Munford.
With two highly talented units battling it out in the trenches Saturday, whichever group can get the upper hand over the other should give its team a solid chance at a victory.
JON SAUBER: SEAN CLIFFORD VS. OHIO STATE’S PASS DEFENSE
Penn State needs Clifford to be better than he was against Indiana. There’s no way around it. The redshirt junior made a few excellent throws — namely a deep ball to Jahan Dotson that gave the Nittany Lions a 21-20 lead and a perfect pass to Daniel George on the sideline — but was too inconsistent in the 36-35 loss.
Clifford too frequently drops his eyes when pressure comes when he needs to focus downfield. That leads to unnecessary sacks when he could be looking for an open target or an opportunity to throw the ball away. His two interceptions were egregious overthrows that proved costly for the Nittany Lions and his best work came on the ground when he was able to break off big plays for his team.
Penn State will need Clifford to make tight-window throws and give his weapons the opportunity to make plays downfield.
However, that won’t be easy Saturday. Ohio State has an elite secondary led by cornerback Shaun Wade, who is one of the best cornerbacks in the country, and Sevyn Banks, who could be in for a breakout season with consistent playing time. Those two — and Cameron Brown — will shrink the throwing windows for Clifford and make it difficult for him to find his receivers.
Up front the Buckeyes no longer have Chase Young to terrorize the Nittany Lion offensive line, but there’s still plenty of talent. Jonathon Cooper, Tyler Friday and Tyreke Smith all had at least 20 snaps for Ohio State against Nebraska while Javontae Jean-Baptiste and Zach Harrison both rotated into the game. The Buckeyes’ depth at defensive end should keep their pass rushers fresh to continually attack the Penn State passing game.
Clifford will have to navigate those pass rushers — knowing when to throw the ball away and when to take off and run will be key — while also keeping track of one of the most talented secondaries in the country.
Saturday night will not be an easy matchup for any Nittany Lion, but it may be most difficult for the redshirt junior signal caller. If Penn State wants to keep its College Football Playoff hopes alive, Clifford will need to be at the top of his game for all 60 minutes of the team’s home opener.
This story was originally published October 28, 2020 at 3:59 PM.
