How can Penn State pull off an upset against the Michigan Wolverines? Here are 2 key matchups
Penn State is 5-0 coming out of its bye week with its biggest test of the season so far just ahead. The Nittany Lions head on the road to Ann Arbor Saturday to take on the 6-0 Michigan Wolverines. The game is the first of a difficult three game stretch that also features games against Minnesota and Ohio State.
Let’s take a look at the two key matchups that will decide how the Nittany Lions can pull off the upset.
Jon Sauber: Michigan RB Blake Corum vs. Penn State’s run defense
This should be a relatively straightforward week for the Nittany Lions. If they can stop Blake Corum, they should be able to win. If they can’t, they probably won’t be able to. Corum has been one of the best backs in the nation this season. He’s third in FBS with 735 rushing yards on 118 carries and has been an integral part of Michigan’s offense. The Wolverines have established a clear identity when it has the ball.
They want to run and when that isn’t working they want to keep running. And if that fails, they’ll keep running. Michigan wants to control the ball, control the clock and therefore control the game. They do that by relying on Corum to help them work their way down the field slowly but surely and punctuating drives with backbreaking touchdowns. There’s a psychological impact the Wolverines impose with their running game — making your defense quit after a couple of drives of getting punched in the face over and over again.
That has carried the team to its 6-0 record in relatively easy fashion. The greatest test so far came against Maryland and Corum was able to put his stamp on the matchup by carrying the ball 30 times for 243 yards and two touchdowns. The difference here is that Maryland defense isn’t close to this Penn State defense.
The Nittany Lions have had one of the best defenses in the country this season. They’re dominant against the pass where they can trust their cornerbacks to play man coverage behind the front seven. They’re stout against the run, stacking the box when they need to, giving themselves a numbers advantage. The front four isn’t particular big, but PJ Mustipher is a strong defensive tackle who uses his powerful lower body to stand up opposing offensive linemen. Not to mention, his size often forces opposing interior linemen to double team him — which frees up the team’s linebackers to make plays because they don’t have to take on a block.
The Penn State run defense was tested by Auburn, but the Tigers went away from their running game because they were at a fairly large deficit in the second half. This is a more important test for the Nittany Lions than that one. And the group should be able to pass it and give control of the game to its offense.
Kyle J. Andrews: Michigan’s pass defense vs. Penn State’s passing offense
Michigan has allowed just 165.3 yards per game through the air this season, ranking 11th among all Football Bowl Subdivision teams. The Wolverines are also fifth in scoring defense (11.3 points per game) and total defense (247.0). Some of the Wolverines’ numbers are inflated — playing against Colorado State (137 passing yards), Hawaii (113 passing yards) and Connecticut (24 passing yards), but they’re still the real deal.
Their first real test came against Maryland on Sept. 24 with Terps quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa entering the game with a 77.3% completion percentage for 895 passing yards, six touchdown passes and two interceptions. Not only did Michigan keep him at bay, but they picked him off twice with cornerback DJ Turner and strong safety R.J. Moten. Michigan won 34-27.
Next came Michigan’s win over Iowa Oct. 1, taking on the often inert passing offense of the Hawkeyes. Iowa quarterback Spencer Petras actually had a decent game, putting together a statline of 21-for-31 (67.7%) with 246 passing yards and a touchdown. Michigan defensive coordinator Jesse Minter loaded up the box with the expectation that they’d run and Petras would have to have an outstanding game to win.
Michigan’s defense just pinned its ears back in last week’s 31-10 victory over Indiana. Indiana quarterback Connor Bazelak was rendered ineffective, completing just 25 of his 49 passes for 203 with a touchdown and an interception. The most eye-popping number from Michigan’s pass defense was Bazelak’s 4.1 yards per attempt. Much of it came from the Wolverines’ vicious pass rush, notching seven sacks and the rest of it came from smothering coverage from the pass coverage.
Heading into a matchup with Penn State, Michigan has totaled 18 total pass deflections through six games.
The Nittany Lions have a passing offense that ranks 59th in the FBS with 251 yards per game through five games. Quarterback Sean Clifford has led the offense with 1030 passing yards, nine touchdown passes and two interceptions with a 62% completion rate and backup Drew Allar has 163 passing yards, two touchdown passes and no interceptions. Penn State has used both quarterbacks at times with Allar usually taking over for Clifford when the game is in the Nittany Lions’ control.
Receivers for Penn State have continued to stay consistent with Parker Washington, Mitchell Tinsley and tight end Brenton Strange all over 200 receiving yards. Each player has found their spots in the passing game and 19 different players have caught a pass this season. While Keandre Lambert-Smith’s availability is unknown for Saturday’s game, Harrison Wallace III will have to step up against Michigan’s vaunted pass coverage.
As for Clifford, he’ll have to stay calm in the pocket and attempt to hang in ahead of the pass rush. Clifford hasn’t had one 300-yard game this season. He can change that by attacking the linebackers in pass coverage.
While Michigan linebacker Junior Colson can fly from end to end in pursuit, Clifford can exploit the middle of the field with Strange, along with fellow tight ends Theo Johnson and Tyler Warren. Johnson and Warren stand in at 6-foot-6 each and can bully smaller defenders. Strange has been used as an outside receiver, in the slot, in-line and an H-Back. Clifford can expand on exploiting the matchups that each of his tight ends will face in coverage on Saturday.
