Penn State at Michigan predictions: What will dictate the winner of the top-10 matchup?
Penn State’s biggest matchup of the season to date is around the corner. Here are some final thoughts and predictions ahead of the Nittany Lions’ football game against Michigan Saturday afternoon.
Controlling the game
The Wolverines are going to try to control the game and Penn State has to do everything in its power not to let them. Yes, that seems obvious, but it’s not going to be easy. Michigan tries to maintain the ball, maintain the clock where they want it to be and control the score. There are a few ways for Penn State to get them off track but we’ll focus here on why that’s such an important goal for the Wolverines. It’s likely to be the one thing that decides who will win Saturday’s top-10 matchup.
Michigan wants to limit the number of possessions their opponents get to limit the number of opportunities they have to score. Again, quite obvious, but important nonetheless. The ideal game likely involves six possessions each, with the Wolverines bleeding the clock down second by second and crushing their opponent in the time of possession battle. They rely on offensive efficiency more than offensive explosion, trying to be successful on each play, doing exactly what they need to in order to move the ball down the field on long, taxing drives.
That allows the Michigan offense to wear down opposing defenses by keeping them on the field and forcing them to deal with the Wolverines’ physicality. That exhaustion only compounds the issue of a strong Michigan running game that is already going to be a problem for Penn State. The strategy essentially feeds on itself. The more successful the running game is, the more control Michigan has and the more they’re able to exhaust the defense and find success running the ball. Wash, rinse, repeat. Penn State can not afford to cede control of the game to the Wolverines.
Forcing turnovers
The easiest way to take control for Penn State is by getting the ball back. The Nittany Lions have excelled at that this season under defensive coordinator Manny Diaz. The unit is aggressive, flying all over the field and attacking the ball relentlessly. That means punching at it when bringing down opposing ball carriers and trying to haul it in when it goes up in the air rather than just trying to bat it down to force an incompletion. Takeaways are a staple of Diaz’s defenses and they’re going to be even more important against Michigan.
The Wolverines’ focus is on running the ball, so when they do occasionally take to the air to move the ball, Penn State needs to capitalize. The Nittany Lions have the personnel to take advantage of any opportunities they get, which bodes well for their chances of intercepting sophomore quarterback J.J. McCarthy. Kalen King and Joey Porter Jr. are both excellent cornerbacks who have both shown they can turn and track the ball when it’s in the air. It’s not necessarily the best part of either corner’s game — both are much better at sticking in coverage and never letting their man get open in the first place — but they’re capable at it.
The real threat for Penn State is deeper in the secondary with Zakee Wheatley and Ji’Ayir Brown, two of the best ball hawks in the country. They track the ball at an elite level and have a penchant for going and getting it before the offense can. McCarthy has an elite completion percentage at 78.3 percent, but can still make mistakes. Penn State needs to make him pay for any mistakes that he makes during the game. Forcing just one can put Michigan off track enough and pull the Wolverines away from running the ball.
Keeping Corum in check
And the other way to control it is by not letting Corum find success. That’s a taller task given how good he has been this season. He has 118 carries for 735 yards and 11 touchdowns through six games and has been the centerpiece of the Michigan offense. He’s probably going to get his no matter what this game, but Penn State has to be opportunistic when the Wolverines get behind the chains. They want to gain three or four yards on every run, slowly working their way down the field. An early down negative rush makes that more difficult and puts more pressure on the offense when it’s outside of its comfort zone.
First and second downs are going to be important when Michigan has the ball because of that. Three yard gains on those downs are fine for the Wolverines, but anything more is a huge win. Penn State has to get Corum down in the backfield when the defense can and if Michigan drops back to pass they should be looking to pounce. More often than not, though, those plays will be runs and the pressure will be on the Nittany Lion defense to make Corum less effective.
The team’s safeties will have to play more in run support, even if it makes them more vulnerable to play action passes, and the linebackers will have to make plays in the backfield while the defensive line soaks up blocks and gives them chances to make plays. That will force punts and give Penn State more opportunities to make Michigan play from behind and likely pass the ball more than they would like.
Final predictions
Penn State 17, Michigan 16: The Nittany Lions have to do everything I laid out above, and right now I like their chances. Diaz’s defense is an absolute monster to deal with and can make life miserable for good offenses. One-dimensional ones like Michigan’s can be compromised easier than most. Of course, none of this matters if McCarthy is better than I’ve seen and lights up the Penn State defense. For now, I’ll say he isn’t able to do enough to earn the win for the Wolverines.
MVP: Parker Washington. The Penn State offense is going to have to make some plays in this one. Sustained drives don’t feel as likely against a stout Michigan defense so the team’s scoring is more likely to come off explosive plays. That means someone like Washington is going to be key here. I’ll say he breaks off a couple and plays a major role in two touchdowns during Saturday’s game.
Good gamble: Penn State’s defense is better than its offense. Michigan’s defense is elite, too. Maybe I’m missing something here, but this feels like an under to me. The line is currently at 52.5 but something like 28-24 feels like the high end of scoring projections unless Michigan eviscerates the Penn State defense. Under 52.5 is the way to go here.
The last word
Penn State redshirt senior starting quarterback Sean Clifford on what he did during the bye week:
“It’s moreso sticking to the plan like it’s a normal week throughout the week, and then having that Saturday off. Really just being able to spend time with family and friends, I got to go to my girlfriend’s. I actually got to go to the pumpkin patch, which was nice.”
