Penn State versus Utah Rose Bowl predictions: Can the Nittany Lions end the year with a win?
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Rose Bowl 2022
The Nittany Lions are taking on the Utah Utes in the Rose Bowl. Here’s a look at our coverage from Pasadena, California, leading up to the Jan. 2 game.
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Penn State will try to close out its season with a win Monday afternoon in Pasadena, California. The Nittany Lions are taking on the Utah Utes in the Rose Bowl. Here are some final thoughts, predictions and analysis ahead of the Nittany Lions’ matchup with the Utes in their final game of the season.
Slowing Cam Rising
Most of the Penn State defense’s attention should be on Rising and for good reason. He’s been one of the best quarterbacks in college football this season and has made an impact through the air and on the ground. He’s the engine that makes the Utah offense go and contributes to the physicality the team has with his own brand of power in the running game. He finishes his runs with strength, attacking downhill and taking on opposing defenders. His ability to make plays will play a large part in how much the Utah offense is able to do against a Penn State defense that is one of the best in the country.
In fact, it will likely be the best defense the team faces this season. The Nittany Lions have all of the ingredients necessary to halt the Utah offense. Their aggressiveness should allow them to make plays on the ball in the air when Rising throws and their athleticism and strength should allow the team’s linebackers and secondary to get involved in the running game when Rising decides to keep the ball. While Rising is a great quarterback, Penn State should be able to challenge him in ways that most defenses haven’t this season.
Taking advantage of the absences
One of the reasons Rising is going to be so important to slow is because his top weapon won’t be playing in the game. Tight end Dalton Kincaid won’t play and will enter the 2023 NFL Draft after being the Utes’ best pass catcher this season. He led the team with 890 yards and was the focal point of the offense, drawing the attention of opposing defenses and freeing up options on the outside. Penn State’s defense should be able to slow the offense down and have more success on third down without the security blanket Kincaid had become on the field.
On the other side of the ball, the Utes will have a similar issue. They’ll be without Clark Phillips III, who also will not play in the game and will enter the draft. He’s their top cornerback and best option to go head to head with Mitch Tinsley. His absence should open the door for Tinsley, who has been getting open consistently all season and can make plays when the ball is in his hands. While he may not have the stats of an elite receiver, he’s played at a very high level and should see some level of payoff in this game.
Building momentum
This game is a good cap on the 2022 season but it also has a chance to be the ignition switch for the 2023 season. The Nittany Lions have rebounded from poor 2020 and 2021 seasons to get back on track this year and reach the same level they were as recently as 2019. Now that the program is there, it needs to focus on what it was trying to do before the downturn — reaching the College Football Playoff. Penn State has been on the precipice of making it before, like when it made it to the Rose Bowl in 2016 after winning the Big Ten that season, but it couldn’t get all the way there.
The stars are aligning for the program to take that step next season. Drew Allar is one of the best quarterback prospects Penn State has ever had, Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen are the best young running back duo in the country and the defense is led by one of the best coordinators in college football in Manny Diaz. This game is the chance for some of those players to shine and show some of the potential that will give people reason to believe in their playoff chances next season.
Final predictions
Penn State 27, Utah 23: This is a very winnable game for Penn State despite the fact that Utah is favored. The Nittany Lions should be able to slow Rising down enough to make a difference and get the win. Their offense will have to do enough to get by, but the improved offensive line should be able to pave the way for the team’s running backs.
MVP: Mitch Tinsley. Tinsley should be the key beneficiary of both Penn State wide receiver Parker Washington’s and Phillips’ absences. He’s now the clear No. 1 option in the passing game for Penn State and also doesn’t have the opponent’s top cornerback available to match up with. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Tinsley goes off in his final college game — I’ll say he gets over 100 receiving yards and a touchdown on at least six receptions.
Good gamble: This may be obvious based on my pick of the Nittany Lions to win this game, but I’m going with Penn State +3.5. I’d be willing to sprinkle a little bit on the moneyline as well, but I expect this to be a close game and the spread gives you a little bit of breathing room.
The last word
Penn State center Juice Scruggs — who declared for the 2023 NFL Draft — on the Nittany Lions’ outlook for next season:
“I’m calling it now, I think they’re going to reach the playoff next year.”
This story was originally published December 30, 2022 at 9:18 AM.
